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Who not to pick

Postby Redskins Win » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:02 pm

This is from fox sports, so take it with a humongous grain of salt, but there is some interesting rational.

Every owner should have a "Do Not Draft" list. Whether the list is written down or in your head, there are going to be players you don't feel comfortable rolling with.

While we don't recommend making over-emotional decisions, we're guessing Kevan Barlow and Michael Vick owners from last season are taking a pass this time around. Fred Taylor is another player crossed off many lists because of injury concerns this off-season.

After completing a handful of drafts, there is a group of players we haven't even considered selecting. It's no surprise that many of the ignored players landed on RotoWorld.com's list of "Busts and Overvalued" picks in our magazine (on newsstands now) and online Draft Guide. Using FantasyFootball.com's Average Draft Position (ADP) data as a guide, here's a list of players we're not touching.


Priest Holmes, RB, Average Draft Position — 4.11 (1st round, 3rd RB)
We haven't seen Priest drop below fourth in any draft we've participated in yet. If that keeps up, we'll let someone else keep their fingers crossed all season. We understand the upside. He's got the TD record. We still aren't comfortable dropping a top five pick on a fickle running back nearing the end of his career — especially when Deuce McAllister and Edgerrin James are still on the board. There are many reasons, which we'll detail in a column later this month, why we don't trust Priest as a top five pick. But there is one we can't ignore: He bailed on his team last year. Will he play through the inevitable injuries this time around? Maybe. Do you want to bet your top five pick on it?

Domanick Davis, RB, ADP — 11.59 (late first round, 9th RB)
We haven't seen "Double D" slip past the first round yet. But is he for real? While he scored plenty in 2004, his per-carry average was below four yards a tote. The Texans drafted a runner (Vernand Morency) in the third round to possibly take goal-line carries away. Davis was only a fourth-rounder himself. Houston also keeps sniffing around Travis Henry, which is not a good sign. A useful fantasy asset because of his receptions, we can't imagine Davis falling far enough for us (early third round) to select him.

Donovan McNabb, QB, ADP — 28.6 (3rd round, 3rd QB)
This isn't about Donovan. It's about Terrell Owens, who could still get dealt or miss time during the regular season. It's about Marc Bulger, Trent Green, Kerry Collins, Tom Brady, and Brett Favre — comparable fantasy talents who will go 30-50 picks later in fantasy drafts. It's about that E-A-G-L-E-S fan in your league who will make sure McNabb doesn't slip past the third round. While McNabb is a solid first quarterback, we can't forget he only threw 33 touchdowns in 2002 and 2003 combined. We just don't see him providing value in the top 40 picks.

Chris Brown, RB, ADP — 31.89 (mid-third round, 21st RB)
This is a mid-summer special. The moment Travis Henry is traded, which will happen, we'll take Chris Brown off this list. If Henry moves to Jacksonville, Houston or Seattle, then Brown is worth the risk as a third-round pick. Sure, Brown is one of the top five biggest injury risks among starting running backs. But he'd also run for 1,300 yards with ease if healthy. Consider Brown a safer version of Michael Bennett.

If Henry is traded to Tennessee, his most likely destination, Brown will have to battle to keep his starting job. We suspect this will knock his average draft position down so far (fifth round), that he may be more palatable on Draft Day than he is now. But with so much uncertainty at this point, we can't imagine taking the plunge.

Javon Walker, WR , ADP — 32 (3rd round, 7th WR)
Walker's holdout hasn't affected his average draft position yet. Until it does, we'll take solid options like Joe Horn, Reggie Wayne, and Hines Ward ahead of him. The Packers seem content with their receiver depth, so it is probably up to Walker to cave in with two years left on his contract. If he skips all of training camp like last year's holdout Mike McKenzie, Walker could start the season on the bench.

Muhsin Muhammad, WR , ADP — 69.92 (6th round, 23rd WR)
After three straight years without being a Top 30 receiver, Muhammad was the top-ranked fantasy wideout last season. So which is more likely: Moose remaining a top threat or falling back out of the Top 30?

The numbers tell the story. The best season by a Chicago wideout during the last two years was 715 yards and four touchdowns. Muhsin Muhammad's average season between 2001-2003 was 748 yards and two TDs. Maybe lighting will strike twice with Moose, making him second receiver-worthy. Maybe Rex Grossman will be a solid quarterback despite only six career starts. Maybe Judge Joe Brown will be nominated for the Supreme Court.

Plaxico Burress, WR ADP — 84.79 (7th/8th round, 30th WR)
Like many players on this list, Burress's name is bigger than his game. He's broken 1,050 yards once in his five-year career. Now in New York, there are too many reasons to believe he won't provide value as a third receiver in fantasy leagues. Losing Hines Ward hurts. Losing Pittsburgh's offensive line, who kept quarterbacks upright while Burress went deep, may hurt more. Free agent wideouts often take time to adjust to their new teams, and we expect that to be the case with Eli Manning at the helm. The fact Burress skipped most of this off-season's workouts doesn't help matters.

Joey Harrington, QB, ADP — 131 (11th round, 22nd QB)
Beware of the quarterback without job security. After a first-week game versus the Packers, check out Harrington's schedule: at Chicago, at Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Carolina. Even if Harrington survives that gauntlet with his job, he's unlikely to post average numbers.


Detroit's Joey Harrington threw for only 19 touchdowns last season. (Tom Pidgeon / Getty Images)
Maurice Clarett, RB , ADP — 146 (13th round, 51st RB)
Unless media hype is a category in your league, it's ridiculous to draft Clarett in a re-draft league. He's fourth on the depth chart — at best! With Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin, and Ron Dayne on the Denver roster, Mike Shanahan is not going to rush this kid. They will set him up to succeed when he finally plays — next season. Take a chance on many of the high upside players with worse ADPs than Clarett — Chester Taylor, Brandon Jacobs, and Vernand Morency among them. They will all be backups, not fourth-stringers.

Daniel Graham, TE , ADP — 148.4 (13th round, 12th TE)
Aim higher. With a late-round tight end pick, go for a pick with a larger ceiling than Daniel Graham. We don't even expect Graham to be the best receiving tight end on his team. That should be second-year pro Ben Watson. With Graham handling blocking chores, he's unlikely to score a lot in New England's spread-the-wealth offense. With Jeb Putzier, Watson, and Chris Cooley behind him in ADP, Graham is a weak pick. Guys like Graham should be available on the waiver wire.

Marcus Robinson, WR, ADP — 151.37 (13th round, 52nd WR)
Aim higher. Robinson can't stay healthy, prompting a Minneapolis scribe to call him "painful to watch" earlier this off-season. With Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson stealing touches, Robinson is not an inspired flier pick.

Peerless Price, WR , ADP — 161.79 (14th round, 56th WR)
Owners still love the name, but Price is not draftable. He's not even guaranteed to make the Falcons, much less keep his starting job. Players like Antonio Bryant, David Boston, Michael Jenkins and Samie Parker all have lower ADPs and have better chances for a breakout season.

Boo Williams, TE, ADP — 162.0 (14th round, 17th TE)
If an owner drafts Boo Williams in your league, he's not paying attention. Not only was Williams one of the worst tight ends in football last year, he's probably a longshot to make the Saints. When Shad Meir and Ernie Conwell are ahead of Boo on the depth chart, it's time for fantasy owners to let go. That said, Williams is averaging a higher ADP than promising players like Ben Troupe, Doug Jolley, and Ben Watson. It looks like a lot of owners are napping.


http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/story/3739360?GT1=6667
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Postby STEELtownUSA » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:05 pm

I think this was said in another thread about a do not draft list. You shouldnt have a do not draft list, you should have a do not draft before this round list.
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Postby Sixxgunn » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:15 pm

STEELtownUSA wrote:I think this was said in another thread about a do not draft list. You shouldnt have a do not draft list, you should have a do not draft before this round list.


My draft doesn't have as many rounds as I would need to put some of these guys (and others) on a do not draft before this round list. Therefore I just leave them off my list altogether.
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Postby VaderFin » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:16 pm

I started reading and got to Domanick Davis and Donovan McNabb on a Do Not Draft List and just stopped right there. :-t
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Postby maddog60 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:31 pm

VaderFin wrote:I started reading and got to Domanick Davis and Donovan McNabb on a Do Not Draft List and just stopped right there. :-t


Yeah.
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Postby skinsfan » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:39 pm

I would love to be in a league with the writer of that bit.

I got Plax in a later roundas my 4th stringer and I am very pleased; I got Price in the 13th round too as a 5th.

Sorry FOX, you can't displace the cheatsheet as the best way to control oneself in a draft.

Oh yea, I passed on Priest with the 5th pick because Lewis ran for 2000yds his last full season and has jailhouse weights available. So FOX hasn't been watching too many drafts (he fell to 7th in my first league).
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:46 pm

VaderFin wrote:I started reading and got to Domanick Davis and Donovan McNabb on a Do Not Draft List and just stopped right there. :-t

I had a similar reaction after I saw Priest...
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Postby maddog60 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:54 pm

skinsfan wrote:Oh yea, I passed on Priest with the 5th pick because Lewis ran for 2000yds his last full season and has jailhouse weights available. So FOX hasn't been watching too many drafts (he fell to 7th in my first league).


I would love to have been drafting 6th in your league. I understand why people pass on Holmes, but his high risk high reward is far greater than any player that is a risk. His reward side is: best fantasy football player. At least in my money league his 03 he put up 373 points, and last year Alexander led all RBs with 305 points, that's a massive reward, too much not to take a shot on once LT and Alexander are gone.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:54 pm

I agree with almost everything in the article ;-D
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:11 pm

Priest Holmes quit on his team? Yeah that's why he had 30+ carries playing on a twisted ankle last season. Get real, this author doesn't know his stuff.
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