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Postby Mookie4ever » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:05 pm

Wow. I disagree with all of these.

Harrisons a bust?!?! A top 5 receiver for 6 years in a row, 15 TDs last year, the main target in the best passing offence in the league is a bust?

If the Indy offence slows down at all the first ones to lose will be Stokely and Wayne. In fact, their success last year may benefit Harrison when defences stop double covering him as much.

Dallas Clark is very overrated. He fizzled last year and scored zero TD and had a high of 26 receiving yards in his last 6 games. He is inconsistent but a threat to bust a long one every now and then, not taking away any of Harrison's touches.

Edge is a risk to catch a few more but these also will help free up Harrison more.
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:09 pm

I don't see how Marvin could be listed as a bust. People say he had a down year because he didn't lead the team in catches or yards. But he did in TDs. As DDD said a career high in TDs. He a #1 WR on a team who's QB threw for 49 tds could be labled a bust is pretty humorous to me.

Peyton does spread the ball out and there are lots of beneficiaries..That is not a sufficient reason to label Harrison a bust. I do think he will have the occassional 3 catch for 49 yard games while Wayne or Stokley go off..But he is still going to get his 1100 or so yds, 70-80 catches, and at least 10-12 tds. All fairly conservative estimates in my mind, and barring injury should post better numbers than that.
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Postby davidmarver » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:52 pm

34=Sweetness wrote:I'll disagree on Gates. Even when Caldwell was healthyl and McCardell was there, Gates was still the main threat. They have no reason not to keep going back to Gates, because hes pretty hard to stop. I see more yards and maybe 1-2 less TDs for Gates this year. Probably something like 1100-12.

Caldwell and McCardell weren't on the field at the same time last season and I think that's what WarPigs means.

It only seems logical that Gates doesn't get as many redzone opportunities this next year with all the weapons around him, but we have to remember Gates has only been in the NFL for 2 seasons after 4 years removed from football; he's still got tons of room to grow and improve. Thinking he'll bust or boom is just a complete guess.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:52 pm

Great picks Warpigs - I completely agree.

Chances are very good you wont find any if these players on my teams unless they fall out of the standard range.

The reason I wont draft Harrison - Id rather have TO, Holt, or CJohnson. I just have a hard time believing Peyton will challenge the alltime passing records again, and Marv's decline is obvious at this point. I doubt he will get 15 TDs again, and I predicted last yr he wasnt going to get 1200yds - I see no reason to think he will this yr.

The reason I wont draft Green - Id rather have Rudi, KJones, and often times even Portis can be had in the same range. I also want to remind people of the MUCH tougher schedule GB faces this yr. I believe someone else already mentioned the losses to their OLine.

Same with Gates - I feel Gonzo will have a much better yr, Gates' TDs will be single digits, making his 3rd-4th rd pricetag too high.
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Postby Kensat30 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:09 pm

Marvin Harrison a bust?!? You've got to be kidding me... this is the first time you've been able to get Marvin for value in many years... I see him go late 2nd, early 3rd in almost every draft. Who else are you going to draft there that is virtually GUARANTEED to be a top10 WR, possibly even top5 by season end. 1200/15 is a down season? Craziness. When Stokely goes down to injury and Marvin goes for 1400/14 you'll be slapping yourself in the forehead for passing him up in the 3rd.
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Ahman Green is VALUE for where he is being drafted. Mid to late second round for a RB with a top5 pedigree is amazing. You thought Tiki Barber was underrated last year? Wow.... His schedule may be tough, he may have lost 2 starting guards, but the Packer's have always found a way to put points on the board and field a solid line year after year. They rank right up there with Denver as a historically good running team. Ahman Green is still a year or two away from being 30 and is in his contract year as well. If anything, a weaker line should help Ahman in the receiving department as Brett Favre is forced to goto his hot read instead of waiting for his WRs to break down the field.

2000- #5 RB
2001- #3 RB
2002- #12 RB (injury)
2003- #3 RB
2004- #13 RB (injury)

He's been a solid #1 RB for the past 5 years and he goes in the mid 2nd round behind guys like Julius Jones.... short term memory.
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Personally I think Gates is going to challenge Gonzalez in the elite TE tier again next year. You don't get 13 TDs because the other team hasn't sufficiently game planned for you, Gates has unique talent for the position. This guy is a stud and is a strong possibility to lead TEs in touchdowns again. It's not like his receptions and yardage aren't into the elite ranges either. People seem to forget that in the average year, Gonzo is only putting up something like 700-800/7-8 and is still the #1 TE. So even if Gates takes a big step backwards, he's still head and shoulders above the TE3-10 range. Giving up a 3rd or 4th round draft pick for a difference maker is well worth it if your middle rounds picks are solid.
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Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:03 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Personally I think Gates is going to challenge Gonzalez in the elite TE tier again next year. You don't get 13 TDs because the other team hasn't sufficiently game planned for you, Gates has unique talent for the position.


I couldn't have said that any better. Gates is a specimen and very unique when it comes to his build and ability. Not too many tight ends can do the things he does and no amount of prep time in the film room is going to make it much easier to handle him.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:10 pm

Dr. Duran Duran wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Personally I think Gates is going to challenge Gonzalez in the elite TE tier again next year. You don't get 13 TDs because the other team hasn't sufficiently game planned for you, Gates has unique talent for the position.


I couldn't have said that any better. Gates is a specimen and very unique when it comes to his build and ability. Not too many tight ends can do the things he does and no amount of prep time in the film room is going to make it much easier to handle him.


So given that the vast majority of time situation determines production - what changes in the situation in SD this yr would you guys feel are noteworthy, and how would those changes in situation affect Gates?
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:14 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Marv's decline is obvious at this point. I doubt he will get 15 TDs again, and I predicted last yr he wasnt going to get 1200yds - I see no reason to think he will this yr.


How is his decline obvious? Because there are two other WRs catching balls there? You called Marv a bust last year too Cornbread. 1100 yds and 15 tds? 80+ catches? Why is that a bust since he didn't catch 100? Nowhere near bust numbers there.

I am not saying Peyton gets this year what he did last year, but Marvin is not a bust and should once again be one of the top 3 WRs. Personally, I think arguments could be made for him going higher. Owens flaking off in Philly and Moss in a completely new situation with Kerry Collins..Say what you want, it's still Kerry Collins.
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Postby Warpigs » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:31 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Marvin Harrison a bust?!? You've got to be kidding me... this is the first time you've been able to get Marvin for value in many years... I see him go late 2nd, early 3rd in almost every draft. Who else are you going to draft there that is virtually GUARANTEED to be a top10 WR, possibly even top5 by season end. 1200/15 is a down season? Craziness. When Stokely goes down to injury and Marvin goes for 1400/14 you'll be slapping yourself in the forehead for passing him up in the 3rd.


Yes, I see Marvin Harrison as a bust. Probably moreso than the other two on my list. In almost every magazine and other literature outside of the cafe mocks, I've seen Harrison go his usual early second round. A few have him late first and a few middle second -- but none later than that. There's no way you can say that Harrison is the same WR as he was heading into last year or the year before that. You HAVE to factor in Wayne and Stokely, along with the other Indy weapons (Edge and D. Clark). As a Marv owner last season, I was consistently upset with Harrison's numbers because there was no consistency with them. Many weeks, he produced mediocre fantasy points (in terms of how other WRs were faring). He did have a few big weeks, but so did Roy Williams, to be technical. Having other WR talent around you is a plus to a degree in that it helps keep defenses honest, but there comes a point where there's too much talent around and the ball is scattered. I don't see Peyton matching or superceding last season's stats. I think Edge will be more involved this season. When Manning does chuck the ball around, I expect it to be scattered among the options. I just don't see Harrison as more valuable than players like Chad Johnson and Javon Walker -- both guys will enough talent around them to limit double teaming -- but not so much that it takes away from their own stats. Both are also on teams that will be coming from behind at times. I just don't see Harrison as someone I want to get until at the earliest the mid third round, and I think he'll be gone by then in most drafts.
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Postby Warpigs » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:41 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Ahman Green is VALUE for where he is being drafted. Mid to late second round for a RB with a top5 pedigree is amazing. You thought Tiki Barber was underrated last year? Wow.... His schedule may be tough, he may have lost 2 starting guards, but the Packer's have always found a way to put points on the board and field a solid line year after year. They rank right up there with Denver as a historically good running team. Ahman Green is still a year or two away from being 30 and is in his contract year as well. If anything, a weaker line should help Ahman in the receiving department as Brett Favre is forced to goto his hot read instead of waiting for his WRs to break down the field.

2000- #5 RB
2001- #3 RB
2002- #12 RB (injury)
2003- #3 RB
2004- #13 RB (injury)

He's been a solid #1 RB for the past 5 years and he goes in the mid 2nd round behind guys like Julius Jones.... short term memory.


Not to keep second-guessing you here -- I've always respected your feedback more than most everyone at the cafe. Also not to bash Ahman -- I'm a true Packer fan and would love for Green to have a big season. I just don't see it coming to fruition.

As I mentioned, Green's situation is worsening. I love Favre to death, but the Packer coaching staff continue to lean on him and him alone in key spots -- including short yardage situations. I remember for the last couple years pulling my hair out as the Packers botch another third and short situation because they don't hand off to Green and allow him to use his talent. I never doubted Green's talent overall, but there is a bit of an injury concern here. However, I'm not really factoring that into the mix. I just see the Packers heading to a place where their defense falters early -- allowing opponents to run up early leads. The offenses that the Packers have to face this season are pretty solid most weeks -- including even the retooled Detroit and Minnesota offenses. I have a strong feeling that the Pack will fall behind and immediately turn (as they have time and time again) to Favre to carry the squad on his shoulders. He'll do OK with it at times, but he'll also have his share of interceptions again -- which will only lead to the Packers falling even further behind in most games. Javon Walker is the guy who could benefit the most from the Packers' situation this year, but it's looking more and more messy with his contract situation. If he misses playing time, I think this only makes things even MORE bad for Green. In that situation, I really see him similar to Kevan Barlow last year -- a talented player with a weakening supporting cast (yes, even my hero Favre has seen better days) and a high probability of shoot-out situations in which they abandon the running game early.
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