Warpigs' Sure-to-Bust List....

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Marv's decline is obvious at this point. I doubt he will get 15 TDs again, and I predicted last yr he wasnt going to get 1200yds - I see no reason to think he will this yr.

How is his decline obvious? Because there are two other WRs catching balls there? You called Marv a bust last year too Cornbread. 1100 yds and 15 tds? 80+ catches? Why is that a bust since he didn't catch 100? Nowhere near bust numbers there.

How is his decline obvious? Well - first of all watching him play. He is still a great route runner and has wonderful hands - but because he goes out of his way to avoid contact after the catch more than most WRs - obvioulsy a sign of age and therefore decline. His YAC last yr were the lowest since '97. Secondly - look at his total yds. He was over 1400 every yr between '99 and '02 before dropping to 1270 and 1110 the last 2 yrs.

Personally, I see TDs as a pretty flukey stat for WRs for the most part, and I dont expect Marv to match his career high 2 yrs in a row at 33 even though his total yds are on the decline. Similar to the theory that I dont expect Manning to set the alltime TD record 2 yrs in a row either.

You can say what you want - but I didnt see too many other people saying he would struggle to get 1200 yds last yr. I was off by the TDs - not the Yds. You can define bust whatever way you want, but in this context, I didnt think he was worth the 1st rd pick people were using on him last yr - and that was my argument - not that he wouldnt be relevant - just that he was going too early.

BTW - IND plays a more difficult schedule this yr too - just somethin extra to think about.

[Warpigs]

Personally I think Gates is going to challenge Gonzalez in the elite TE tier again next year. You don't get 13 TDs because the other team hasn't sufficiently game planned for you, Gates has unique talent for the position.

I couldn't have said that any better. Gates is a specimen and very unique when it comes to his build and ability. Not too many tight ends can do the things he does and no amount of prep time in the film room is going to make it much easier to handle him.

I agree that Gates is a specimen and will continue to be near the top in terms of TEs this year. I just worry that Caldwell and McCardell are going to make a splash this season. Caldwell had some very nice games last year, and McCardell still has the skills to produce some nice stats this year. When factoring them both into the mix and knowing that LT2 will continue to be the team's main cog, I just think that something will have to give -- and that Gates will be the one to slip some statistically. Looking at this, it's more to challenge where people are taking him in drafts, and I've seen many times where he is going in the middle of the second round. While having a fairly solid TE can be a key to success, there is just too much talent around in the third round of drafts this year in my opinion to warrant taking Gates earlier than the fourth round.

[Mookie4ever]

Marv's decline is obvious at this point. I doubt he will get 15 TDs again, and I predicted last yr he wasnt going to get 1200yds - I see no reason to think he will this yr.

How is his decline obvious? Because there are two other WRs catching balls there? You called Marv a bust last year too Cornbread. 1100 yds and 15 tds? 80+ catches? Why is that a bust since he didn't catch 100? Nowhere near bust numbers there.

How is his decline obvious? Well - first of all watching him play. He is still a great route runner and has wonderful hands - but because he goes out of his way to avoid contact after the catch more than most WRs - obvioulsy a sign of age and therefore decline. His YAC last yr were the lowest since '97. Secondly - look at his total yds. He was over 1400 every yr between '99 and '02 before dropping to 1270 and 1110 the last 2 yrs.

Personally, I see TDs as a pretty flukey stat for WRs for the most part, and I dont expect Marv to match his career high 2 yrs in a row at 33 even though his total yds are on the decline. Similar to the theory that I dont expect Manning to set the alltime TD record 2 yrs in a row either.

You can say what you want - but I didnt see too many other people saying he would struggle to get 1200 yds last yr. I was off by the TDs - not the Yds. You can define bust whatever way you want, but in this context, I didnt think he was worth the 1st rd pick people were using on him last yr - and that was my argument - not that he wouldnt be relevant - just that he was going too early.

BTW - IND plays a more difficult schedule this yr too - just somethin extra to think about.

I couldn't disagree with you more Cornbread.

Is age an issue for TO and Joe Horn too? All three are around the same age.

There is nothing flukey about Harrison's TD totals. This is the same argument that people were using against Shaun Alexander last year. Instead of seeing his touchdown totals as flukey I see them as a positive sign of consistent production. Marvin has scored double digit TDs every year since 1998, he has averaged 12 TDs/yr for the past 6 years! He is the number one target in the best offence and for the past 6 years has developed an amazing rapport with the best QB in the NFL - how anybody could turn this into a negative I do not know.

His total yards have gone down as a result of the success of Wayne and Stokely but personally I believe that Marvin will get more looks and more yards this year. I think that defences will pay more attention to the other two and Peyton will fall back on his old reliable Marvin more and more. Dallas Clark is a definite downgrade from Pollard and Clarke will not steal as many of Marvin's TD catches.

If anything Marvin is undervalued for the first time in 5 years, he is very good value and perhaps even more importantly for a second round pick, he is a very low risk pick who still has very good upside.

[aussieboy]

Great post Mookie.

Couldn't agree more.

The major knocks on Marvin seem to be: 1)his age, and 2) the emergence of other receivers in Indy.

Sure, Marvin is getting on a bit in terms of age. The norm for WR to decline after a certain age applies to the normal WR. Marvin is anything but normal. He keeps himself in fine shape, and is quite simply a professional. The guy has missed 5 games in 9 seasons, with 4 of those games being missed in one season. That's as durable as you get.

How is the emergence of Wayne and to a lesser extent Stokley a knock on Harrison? Do people assume that without the other WR Harrison would get all of Mannings passes? Of course not.

The quality in the #2 and 3 WR helps Harrison. Teams simply cannot afford to double team Marvin because they know Indy have a number of other options that can burn them. Although it's unlikely that Peyton will break any TD records again, he will go close. The lax pass-interference rules clearly had a major impact on receiving stats last season. Theres plenty of TDs and receptions to go around in Indy, Marvin will get his. Whether the other options do well or not is irrelevent. I'd rather have the #1 WR on the best offense in football.

A case good even be made that Harrison is the safest pick this year. I'm not saying the best WR, just the safest pick. Unless he gets injured I don't see how he won't put up close to 90 receptions, 1200+ yards and 10+ TDs...minimum.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

1200 and 10 = close to my predictions. thats why some consider him a bust. For where he is going, he had better have much better numbers than that. 1200 and 10 is close to 10th overall range - not top 3.

Mookie - you used avgs to say why he isnt flukey - let me show you what I mean:

2001 - 15
2002 - 11
2003 - 10
2004 - 15

When TDs regularly jump 25-30 fantasy points in a season, to me thats flukey.

I think a lot of this is due to the word bust. I still think Marv is a fine receiver, top 10 without a doubt. I just think top 3 where he is going is too high.

[Kensat30]

1200 and 10 = close to my predictions. thats why some consider him a bust. For where he is going, he had better have much better numbers than that. 1200 and 10 is close to 10th overall range - not top 3.

Mookie - you used avgs to say why he isnt flukey - let me show you what I mean:

2001 - 15
2002 - 11
2003 - 10
2004 - 15

When TDs regularly jump 25-30 fantasy points in a season, to me thats flukey.

I think a lot of this is due to the word bust. I still think Marv is a fine receiver, top 10 without a doubt. I just think top 3 where he is going is too high.

Don't you think the sheer volume of touchdown passes and the number of receiving targets in the Colt's offense last season limited Marvin's yardage and reception totals?

A) Marvin's ability to catch a high number of passes due to the quick scoring offensive drives.
B) Marvin's ability to gain yards due to said lack of receptions.
C) Marvin's ability to gain yardage+receptions with the emergence of their #3 WR.
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Perhaps a decrease in effectiveness in Colt's offensive drives would lead to more chances for Harrison to catch the ball and more chances to gain yardage (Many people believe Manning will regress in '05). A decrease in the effectiveness of the #3 WR would return the emphasis on Marvin (Stokely *cough* fluke *cough*).

Even with all these things going on, Marvin still manages to put up 1100/15, despite a decrease in yardage and receptions, this is the equivalent of 1400/10... Maybe this is not the same player as 1999-2002 Marvin, but that guy was not dropping to the third round of fantasy drafts. I'm in the camp that OUTSIDE factors and not a decline in talent caused the dip in Marvin's receptions/ yardage and spike in TDs.
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2004- #15 in passing attempts - Wayne, Stokely (12.6 FP/G)
2003- #5 in pasing attempts - Wayne (Harrison - 12.5 FP/G)
2002- #5 in passing attempts - no one (Harrison - 15.0 FP/G)
2001- #7 in passing attempts - no one (Harrison - 15.2 FP/G)
2000- #8 in passing attempts - no one (Harrison - 14.1 FP/G)
1999- #4 in passing attempts - no one (Harrison - 14.9 FP/G)

Look at the numbers, Marvin was fighting for the least amount of passes in years against his greatest level of competition for touches, and he still produced at a high level. Granted, he wasn't at the same level during his glory years (143 receptions, lone target on team), but he is STILL AN ELITE WR.

I'm willing to bet that Marvin hovers right around 200 Fantasy points again next season... and I challenge anyone to target a WR that routinely falls to the late 2nd, early 3rd that has a high probability to produce those kind of numbers.

[Mookie4ever]

Mookie - you used avgs to say why he isnt flukey - let me show you what I mean:

2001 - 15
2002 - 11
2003 - 10
2004 - 15

When TDs regularly jump 25-30 fantasy points in a season, to me thats flukey.

OK - what receiver's TD totals are not flukey? What WR doesn't have his TD totals jump 25-30% per season?

Moss

2001 - 10
2002 - 7
2003 - 17
2004 - 13

TO

2001 - 16
2002 - 13
2003 - 9
2004 - 14

Hines

2001 - 4
2002 - 12
2003 - 10
2004 - 4

Holt

2001 - 7
2002 - 4
2003 - 12
2004 - 10

Marvin is the least flukey receiver of the lot.

[Guru13]

2. Ahman Green. The Packers have perennially overlooked Ahman as the team's true heart and soul and placed games too many times in the sometimes careless hands of Brett Favre. Green has been overlooked too often by the coaching staff in the past and things look even more dismal this season. The Packers have major questions on the offensive line and took some big steps backwards defensively. Green Bay will find itself having to play from behind on an almost weekly basis -- which leads to the run being abandoned even more. Even if Ahman stays healthy all season, he will be seeing the ball less and less.

wo, wo, wo...hey now, the "careless hands" of brett favre, is that any way to talk about him, Careless? i think not, brett favre isnt at all the biggest factor in the situation with ahman, how about the fact that the D-Fence is absolutely terrible, which means they have to throw ALOT more. Dont dump this on Brett Favre.

[bellybrother]

If Marv's there for your 3rd pick you have to take him.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

If Marv's there for your 3rd pick you have to take him.

Ill agree with this.

I have yet to see him fall that far, but yeah - if Marv falls into the 3rd Rd Id agree he represents good value there.