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Postby bellybrother » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:42 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
bellybrother wrote:If Marv's there for your 3rd pick you have to take him.


Ill agree with this.

I have yet to see him fall that far, but yeah - if Marv falls into the 3rd Rd Id agree he represents good value there.


Yeah, I wouldn't count on that either, but in some of the mocks I've done he's gone in the 3rd and Kensat said he'd seen late 2nd early 3rd. I would take him middle to late 2nd myself, depending on what rb's are available in the middle, but that may be homerism even if subconciously, but if anyone has the 25th or later pick in a 12 team league and he's there.........
I won't have to worry about that as I'll be picking at the end of the 1st all year, but that's my 2 cents worth.
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Re: Warpigs' Sure-to-Bust List....

Postby Warpigs » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:14 am

FantasyFutballGuru13 wrote:
2. Ahman Green. The Packers have perennially overlooked Ahman as the team's true heart and soul and placed games too many times in the sometimes careless hands of Brett Favre. Green has been overlooked too often by the coaching staff in the past and things look even more dismal this season. The Packers have major questions on the offensive line and took some big steps backwards defensively. Green Bay will find itself having to play from behind on an almost weekly basis -- which leads to the run being abandoned even more. Even if Ahman stays healthy all season, he will be seeing the ball less and less.


wo, wo, wo...hey now, the "careless hands" of brett favre, is that any way to talk about him, Careless? i think not, brett favre isnt at all the biggest factor in the situation with ahman, how about the fact that the D-Fence is absolutely terrible, which means they have to throw ALOT more. Dont dump this on Brett Favre.


Did I say that Brett Favre was the biggest factor in my indicating Ahman Green as a bust candidate? No. I mentioned that he may factor somewhat into that -- and you can't deny that. Obviously, Green Bay's pathetic defense this season will be the biggest contributing factor as Green Bay has to abandon the running game and turn to Favre to save the day. Let me reiterate that I LOVE Favre. I'm shelling out some big bucks this fall just to see him play in Philly before he retires. I love his swagger and leadership abilities. However, you can't deny that he has his tendencies at times to just chuck the ball up and hope for the best. Again, one of the best examples of that was Green Bay's heart-wrenching loss to Philly two playoff seasons ago. His interception at the end of the game was just ludacrous. As much as I love Favre, I think he'll continue to have situations where he just lobs the ball up for the taking, and will continue to rack up interceptions. When the Packers are in games where they're trying to catch up and are on a pass-first basis, a Favre interception only compounds the problems so much more. A situation like this will lead almost undoubtedly to Green getting even less looks late in shootout games.
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Postby Daddymike59 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:51 am

Dr. Duran Duran wrote:I'm going to disagree with all three. Harrison had a career high in touchdowns last season and although his yardage numbers have dropped, leaving Marv in single coverage in the red zone hasn't hurt his scoring totals. I see little reason why he won't have similar numbers to last years totals.

I am a true believer in the Chargers offense and don't think last year was a fluke. Brees will continue to shine and Gates will always be a hard target to cover. He may not reach the record breaking numbers he saw last year, but he is a certain top 3 TE.

As for Ahman, I've seen him go in the mid to late second round and that is a great value for a back of his calibur. Even if he only marginally improves last years totals, he's a great 2nd back. The Packers won't get worse on defense and Ahman will get his share of touches as always.

You want the face of bust...here he is:

Image[/img]


The only one that may even pop will be Ahman and I don't see that happeneing either.
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Postby tanner » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:17 am

Marvin isn't a bust, but is slipping for sure..
hist yardage and reception totals have dropped in each of the past two seasons..he appears to be another Tim Brown, a great WR who is slowly decaying.....he'll be 33 in August..
he managed just 86 receptions last year, in the best offense the NFL has ever seen..there is no way Manning approaches 49 tds again..no way..his lifetime avg is 30..thats a 19 td dropoff from 2004..
I will say drafting Stokley is fools gold..he's had only two years in his NFL career where he actually played all 16 games..if he gets hurt again, Harrinson will benefit..but Marvin's days of being a top 5 WR are over..

Gates isn't a bust, Brees is..that is what will kill Gates' production..and the fact that SD plays one of the toughest schedules doesn't help , either..
Green is still good, but the Packers defense is slipping, so they might need to pass more to be competitive...

I'd be more inclined to call the following players busts before I call Gates, Green or Harrison busts:
Priest ( too old, too many carries & two major injuries in consecutive years), Lamont Jordan ( never has been a F/T starter, and even when he did start for an injured C-Mart, he was pedestrian at best), Tatum Bell ( injured in 4 straight years now, dating back to Oklahoma State days), Todd Heap ( will miss ALL of training camp as he heals from shoulder and ankle surgeries).
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Postby skinsfan » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:27 am

I disagree on Harrison! Even in his somewhat-bust season of last year, he had good stats. No way I'm going to discount a record-breaking consistent WR like him, especially with Ds focusing more on Manning's 2nd and 3rd options.

Sure-to-bust? Holmes. They should have an over-under for the number of weeks he misses this year...I say 9 is the line here, I say over.
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Postby PSU All Day » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:38 am

The real question on Harrison is who else would you take before him?

Definitely:
Moss
TO

Maybe:
Holt
C Johnson

After those I can't see taking anyone else before Harrison. Is he top three? I think not. I think Holt moves past him this year and maybe Johnson.

So at worst I think Harrison is top 5.

Bottom 2nd round top 3rd sounds right. Middle second might be a reach this year.
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Postby bellybrother » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:28 am

tanner wrote:Marvin isn't a bust, but is slipping for sure..
hist yardage and reception totals have dropped in each of the past two seasons..he appears to be another Tim Brown, a great WR who is slowly decaying.....he'll be 33 in August..
he managed just 86 receptions last year, in the best offense the NFL has ever seen..there is no way Manning approaches 49 tds again..no way..his lifetime avg is 30..thats a 19 td dropoff from 2004..
I will say drafting Stokley is fools gold..he's had only two years in his NFL career where he actually played all 16 games..if he gets hurt again, Harrinson will benefit..but Marvin's days of being a top 5 WR are over..

Gates isn't a bust, Brees is..that is what will kill Gates' production..and the fact that SD plays one of the toughest schedules doesn't help , either..
Green is still good, but the Packers defense is slipping, so they might need to pass more to be competitive...

I'd be more inclined to call the following players busts before I call Gates, Green or Harrison busts:
Priest ( too old, too many carries & two major injuries in consecutive years), Lamont Jordan ( never has been a F/T starter, and even when he did start for an injured C-Mart, he was pedestrian at best), Tatum Bell ( injured in 4 straight years now, dating back to Oklahoma State days), Todd Heap ( will miss ALL of training camp as he heals from shoulder and ankle surgeries).


I know this may reek of homerism, but I've got to say it anyway, Marv IS NOT DECLINING. His numbers have declined the last coupla years because of the growth of the rest of the offense, but make no mistake about it, Marv is still the weapon other teams defensive secondaries plan against(and if they don't this year, Marv will have a huge year, but they will).

Now if you want to make the argument that Marv is behind Johnson and Holt fantasy-wise then ok. That's reasonable givin the fact that the Edge, Reggie, Stokely and Dallas are still there to suck up touches, but physically Marv is still capable of 130 catches. The Colts just don't need him to do that now. They wouldn't have given him the money for the years they just did if they even suspected he might be deteriorating physically. They would've made Edge the priority. And while Marv does open up the defense so Reggie/Stokely/Dallas can run free, Marv will definately still get his even if Manning dowsn't throw 50 td's this year.
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Postby ngub12 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:05 am

i'm totally with you regarding ahman this year. however my concern goes beyond the fact that they lost those two guards (whale and rivera?). If you can believe it GB's D is worse than it was last year, where as every team in there division should be better from offseason aquisitions. They are going to pass more, the only positive is if the use ahman in the passing game often as he is a good reciever. but also dont forget about najeh davenport. most of us have seen him play fullback at miami and know he is a house. the guy is like 250 and runs a 4.5 . anyway, he looked good when green went down and in spot action last year. i dont expect ahman to produce much better numbers than a #3 runner/borderline #2.
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Re: Warpigs' Sure-to-Bust List....

Postby Guru13 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:17 am

Warpigs wrote:
FantasyFutballGuru13 wrote:
2. Ahman Green. The Packers have perennially overlooked Ahman as the team's true heart and soul and placed games too many times in the sometimes careless hands of Brett Favre. Green has been overlooked too often by the coaching staff in the past and things look even more dismal this season. The Packers have major questions on the offensive line and took some big steps backwards defensively. Green Bay will find itself having to play from behind on an almost weekly basis -- which leads to the run being abandoned even more. Even if Ahman stays healthy all season, he will be seeing the ball less and less.


wo, wo, wo...hey now, the "careless hands" of brett favre, is that any way to talk about him, Careless? i think not, brett favre isnt at all the biggest factor in the situation with ahman, how about the fact that the D-Fence is absolutely terrible, which means they have to throw ALOT more. Dont dump this on Brett Favre.


Did I say that Brett Favre was the biggest factor in my indicating Ahman Green as a bust candidate? No. I mentioned that he may factor somewhat into that -- and you can't deny that. Obviously, Green Bay's pathetic defense this season will be the biggest contributing factor as Green Bay has to abandon the running game and turn to Favre to save the day. Let me reiterate that I LOVE Favre. I'm shelling out some big bucks this fall just to see him play in Philly before he retires. I love his swagger and leadership abilities. However, you can't deny that he has his tendencies at times to just chuck the ball up and hope for the best. Again, one of the best examples of that was Green Bay's heart-wrenching loss to Philly two playoff seasons ago. His interception at the end of the game was just ludacrous. As much as I love Favre, I think he'll continue to have situations where he just lobs the ball up for the taking, and will continue to rack up interceptions. When the Packers are in games where they're trying to catch up and are on a pass-first basis, a Favre interception only compounds the problems so much more. A situation like this will lead almost undoubtedly to Green getting even less looks late in shootout games.


ok, ill agree with you somewhat there, but it isnt like he consistently "just chucks the ball" yes, it happens, but not every game, personally i dont think he will throw any more int's than last year.
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Postby tanner » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:36 am


I know this may reek of homerism, but I've got to say it anyway, Marv IS NOT DECLINING. His numbers have declined the last coupla years because of the growth of the rest of the offense, but make no mistake about it, Marv is still the weapon other teams defensive secondaries plan against(and if they don't this year, Marv will have a huge year, but they will).

Now if you want to make the argument that Marv is behind Johnson and Holt fantasy-wise then ok. That's reasonable givin the fact that the Edge, Reggie, Stokely and Dallas are still there to suck up touches, but physically Marv is still capable of 130 catches. The Colts just don't need him to do that now. They wouldn't have given him the money for the years they just did if they even suspected he might be deteriorating physically. They would've made Edge the priority. And while Marv does open up the defense so Reggie/Stokely/Dallas can run free, Marv will definately still get his even if Manning dowsn't throw 50 td's this year.


fair enough! good reply!
I agree, as I stated, that there are others more worthy of the 'bust' tag than Marvin Harrison; Priest Holmes being one, Heap and Bell being others..
I also said in no way does Stokley make it a full season, so that could benefit Marvin..but lets face it , his reception totals are going south, quickly..
in 13 games last season, he caught just 5 or fewer passes..in 6 games he caught 4 or fewer passes..he had just 3 games where he caught between 6-9 passes, and just 2 games with double digit receptions. He also netted just 4 100+ yard games, where in 2003, he netted 7 100+ yard games..
last year was a major dropoff in second half ( final 8 games) production, whereas the previous two seasons, he had been better or at least even with first-half production..
first 8 games '04:
51-600-10 td
last 8 games '04:
35-513-5

he averaged just 4.5 catches per game over final 7 games in 2004.

He is clearly NOT the focal point of the offense anymore..he HAS slipped , considerably. Its inevitable, like all the great NFL players who hit 33, his stats are sure to drop like Emmitt, Rod Smith, etc..now it could be that Wayne and Clark have emerged, or that he's getting older, or both..
either way, he is NOT what he once was.

the point is, he got 15 tds last year on 86 receptions, in an offense where the QB set an ALL-TIME td record..
Manning will not come close to 49 tds again..Marino didn't either when he first set the record..If Manning throws his career average of 30 tds per season, how is Marvin going to get another 15 of them..thats 19 fewer TD's from Manning than last year...precisely 1/2 of Manning's Td's will go to Marvin?
no way. not with Wayne,Clark, et al on the roster..
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