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Schedule Analysis Rankings...

Postby Warpigs » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:28 am

I thought an article in this year's Fantasy Football Weekly that compares teams in terms of schedules in weeks 1-4 and 14-17 was interesting. They rank teams in groups of five as far as those against the easiest schedules (running, passing, overall points) and hardest schedules. Here are the results -- Would love your comments...

FIRST FOUR GAMES

Easiest Schedules

Vs. The Run: 1. Cardinals (NYG, STL, SEA, SF); 2. Rams (SF, ARI, TEN, NYG); 3. Bengals (CLE, MIN, CHI, HOU); 4. Giants (ARI, NO, SD, STL); 4. Browns (CIN, GB, IND, Bye)

Vs. The Pass: 1. Eagles (ATL, SF, OAK, KC); 2. Ravens (Ind, TEN, Bye, NYJ); 3. Steelers (TEN, HOU, NE, bye); 4. Browns (CIN, GB, IND, bye); 5. Cowboys (SD, WAS, SF, OAK).

Toughest Schedules

Vs. The Run: 1. Dolphins (DEN, NYJ, CAR, bye); 2. Patriots (OAK, CAR, PIT, SD); 3. Raiders (NE, KC, PHI, DAL); 4. Texans (BUF, PIT, bye, CIN); 5. Chiefs (NYJ, OAK, DEN, PHI).

Vs. The Pass: 1. Texans (BUF, PIT, bye, CIN); 2. Packers (DET, CLE, TB, CAR); 3. Dolphins (DEN, NYJ, CAR, bye); 4. Chargers (DAL, DEN, NYG, NE); 5. Titans (PIT, BAL, STL, IND).

LAST FOUR GAMES

Easiest Schedules

Vs. The Run: 1. Titans (HOU, SEA, MIA, JAC); 2. Redskins (ARI, DAL, NYG, PHI); 3. Eagles (NYG, STL, ARI, WAS); 4. Falcons (NO, CHI, TB, CAR); 5. Steelers (CHI, MIN, CLE, DET).

Vs. The Pass: 1. Seahawks (SF, TEN, IND, GB); 2. Jaguars (IND, SF, HOU, TEN); 3. Dolphins (SD, NYJ, TEN, NE); 4. Buccaneers (CAR, NE, ATL, NO); 5. Rams (MIN, PHI, SF, DAL).

Toughest Schedules

Vs. The Run: 1. Dolphins (SD, NYJ, TEN, NE); 2. Broncos (BAL, BUF, OAK, SD); 3. Bills (NE, DEN, CIN, NYJ); 4. Bears (PIT, ATL, GB, MIN); 5. Giants (PHI, KC, WAS, OAK).

Vs. The Pass: 1. Patriots (BUF, TB, NYJ, MIA); 2. Raiders (NYJ, CLE, DEN, NYG); 3. Eagles (NYG, STL, ARI, WAS); 4. Vikings (STL, PIT, BAL, CHI); 5. Bills (NE, DEN, CIN, NYJ).
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Postby ROYALWITCHEESE » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:44 am

I don't believe in that strength of schedule stuff. There are so many teams that change from one year to the next in terms of being good defenses. I mean who thought the Skins and Bills would be top 5 at the beginning of last season?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:30 am

ROYALWITCHEESE wrote:I don't believe in that strength of schedule stuff. There are so many teams that change from one year to the next in terms of being good defenses. I mean who thought the Skins and Bills would be top 5 at the beginning of last season?


Its not an exact science, and you cannot rely on last yrs final rankings, but ignoring schedule and who they play is a mistake.
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Postby fx495232 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:31 am

i look at matchups from week to week to determine maybe who starts for me, but not usually as a drafting tool.
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Postby Kensat30 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:49 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
ROYALWITCHEESE wrote:I don't believe in that strength of schedule stuff. There are so many teams that change from one year to the next in terms of being good defenses. I mean who thought the Skins and Bills would be top 5 at the beginning of last season?


Its not an exact science, and you cannot rely on last yrs final rankings, but ignoring schedule and who they play is a mistake.


Many people avoided Rudi Johnson simply due to his schedule last year. He ended the year as a top10 RB... Schedule should weigh as a factor in making draft choices, but a relatively small one IMO. Situation and talent are much more important..
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Postby joshyboy72 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:21 pm

For the easiest last four games...where are

Detroit (GB, Cincy, NO, Pit) - Pittsburgh isn't a walk in the park but weeks 14, 15, 16...what really count...are.

and

Seattle (SF, Ten, Indy, GB)

Nice resource, thanks.
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Postby ROYALWITCHEESE » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:54 pm

I think that when you are dealing with studs (picks in the first few rounds) schedule makes absolutely no difference. If that was the case, J Jones wouldn't be drafted until the 5th round because he has to face the Eagles and Skins twice.

I think it only applies to your late selections--those more likely to score in games against bad teams. But a good player like a Moss or Holmes is going to go off every game no matter what.
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