Let me preface by saying that, since there is another "sleeper" thread already at the top, if the mods want to lock this or delete it -- that's fine.
I started this one because sleeper lists and value picks are by far the most interesting topics and debates to me. It actually STARTS at just the title and definition -- what is a "sleeper" or value pick to me could be someone else's target or someone else's trash.
I'm notorious and a glutton for taking fliers on players if I have the chance and some type of gut/instinct reasoning. This is especially true in my "freebie" leagues -- those ranging from 3 man keepers, 5 man/rookie provisional keepers, auction redrafts and dynasty leagues. In my "big" money leagues -- ranging from 100 to 500-- I play it a little closer to the vest but still like the proverbial needle in a haystack pick.
With that, my list for players that fall into the above categorization are listed below. Again, some may seem pretty obvious but don't get a lot of mention. A few of them may have a slight personal bias because I have them in one or more of the aforementioned leagues -- as with stocks, I've instituted a full disclosure policy
. Please feel free to agree or flame me --either way, enjoy!
-- More of a value pick than sleeper but he is going a full two rounds later (ADP 7.05) than players like Bulger (ADP 5.01) but the stats don't really support that type of draft position disparity to me. Don't get me wrong though -- I've drafted Bulger at the normal spot multiple times and ALWAYS think it's going to work out great -- still waiting.... Brady's 3 years of starting 16 games he's averaging around 3700 yards and 26 touchdowns -- that starts getting outside "averages" and is now a trend -- those numbers should be as close to locked as you can get in an imperfect environment (the environment being grown men play Fantasy games
) Bulger had more yards last year but 7 less touchdowns -- granted, 2.5 games less but, again, we're talking getting Bulger's numbers a full two rounds later.
Jake Plummer (I own this player)
-- Much of the reasoning is the same as above -- more yards but more INT's than Brady. ADP of 7.08 gives someone strong stats at a reasonable bargain -- finished as 6th best QB in one of my leagues with fairly standard scoring.
-- Aaron Brooks and Jake Delhomme -- two strong players you get even later (ADP 8 and 9th round) but I'm not expecting as much from them.
-- I fully expected this to be about C. Palmer but, upon review, he's going just after the above players -- I expect some nice things out of him but not sure about ADP 7.11
-- 3500 and 16 in his first full 16 game season -- I can only see this getting better. Right now he is going a full 3 rounds later than Palmer (ADP 10.4). They both have a stud WR. They both have good to great RB's. So what causes the difference? Perceived ceiling? Defense? I don't know for sure. But, we're still talking about a category -- sleeper QB -- that you are taking for upside -- probably not as your #1. With that, I like Carr 3 rounds later than a Palmer. Plus, I may be crazy, but I expect Gafney to actually be a legitimate threat and take some heat off AJ -- does it help comparing Gafney to TJ....
--Yeah, yeah -- this is a deeeep sleeper
. With that, I'll keep it short. Held a clipboard for a year. Bledsoe was moderately decent last year. Still has Moulds --granted, older. Has a potential star in Evans. Has a solid defense that will keep them in games which should keep HIM in games. And, McGahee. Lot of people lining up to stop that running game leaving WR's a little more open -- so, can he hit him? I don't know but I DO you know you can draft him AFTER your kicker and D
(I own this player), of course. Warner
, hasn't had 3 WR's like this in a lonnnng time -- threw for 41 td's and 36 td's at one point in his career -- is it totally gone, at ADP 11.11 -- it may be time to take him and find out...
-- tough to call out RB's because of position scarcity so sleepers may be an overstatement -- I think it's all about value. If you're the guy that takes Manning first round and pick a stud WR, this gives you an idea that there is some pretty good talent out there for you to fill your roster out.
-- I've never been a HUGE fan of his in fantasy but, his production CAN"T be ignored. His ADP is 2.11 and that ranks him as the 16 RB taken -- for the rushing leader last year... Do I expect that again -- no. But, do I expect him to finish 17th with an IMPROVED passing game and still showing few signs of slowing down -- no. Yes, he had a LOT of work last year -- but, this year, if he's there at this spot -- I won't ignore him.
-- guy gets a lot of knocks but, he does produce and we're talking an ADP of 4.12. EVERY "stud" rookie RB (Arrington, Brown, Caddy, Benson) is taken before him or at basically the same spot. Bell, Jackson and Jordan are taken basically two rounds in front of him. Do ALL those guys have so many fewer ?? marks than Dunn??? I don't think so by any means.
-- Everyone who's been burned by taking Michael Bennett
in his "breakout" year raise your hand... now EVERYONE lower it
Injury risk, crowded backfield, 4 second 100 yard dash, blah blah blah -- ADP of 4.06. Same ??? or less than guys above but--the guy is talented and RB's do well in MIN -- hopefully, if you get him, it's Bennett that's the one doing well.
-- yeah, maybe belongs in value but he's dropped sooo far. This guy was 1st round/early 2nd last year and hurt a LOT of people so guess what -- he dropped. But, guess what -- we're not talking Ahman Green or Portis level of dropping-- we're talking "he lost a leg drop". ADP of 6.03 -- basically the same as Lee Suggs and CLE's backfield is a LOT more crowded. If you're really worried, grab Gore around the 12th and you can get a starting RB spot midway through your draft.
-- this may belong as a super sleeper as well but why would Houston take this guy with Davis AND Hollings? Davis is great but he does get a little nicked up. Davis got his JOB by this same circumstance--guy in front gets injured, he steps in and doesn't give it up. Not saying this happens here but, this guy is ADP 15.01 --he's going 4 to 8 rounds AFTER other backup RB's. Could be worth a look depending on roster size.
-- Stephen Davis
. ADP of 10.03 -- 5 rounds AFTER Foster??? Did I TOTALLY miss a memo on the depth chart and/or plans in CAR? Marshall Faulk
-- I know about Jackson, I know about Jackson's two knees, I know about them playing on TURF and I know about Martz's craziness and love for Faulk -- ADP of 7.11 -- what are you REALLY getting here if you don't go Faulk....
-- Everyone has their tiers on WR's and this is the position that is most subjective. With that, I'll just list some guys that I see making some type of impact -- probably not enough in 2 WR leagues but, in dynasty and 3 WR leagues, guys to keep an eye on. You probably don't have to even draft all these guys but, don't be last in line on WW priority or a week late when it's time to get them...
(I own this player)-- listing him first because he was on LionTim's list and want to give him props. I'm expecting this guy to make some type of splash. Really wish that he was with someone other than Vick but I still think he can step up. Big and fast -- could DEFINITELY be their #1.
(I own this player) -- there were enough balls to go around in Indy... Bulger is not Manning obviously but Curtis IS better than Stokley. Bruce IS getting older even if HE doesnt' know it...
. A safety or LB can't cover this guy -- after the playoffs, Martz HAS to get this guy more playing time. We KNOW Martz wants to throw the ball and this guy helps him do it.
-- Let guys take Bennett and Coles TWO rounds earlier while your getting better positional talent and getting a better WR later. In the PUTRID MIA offense he still put up 900 and 7. Basically, Andre Johnson production (last year) but you get it 4 rounds later. New coach, new RB and a better QB when Ferrotte wins the job.....
(I own this player) -- ADP of 13.07 -- 9 full rounds AFTER Burleson -- even a round after Williamson. Sure, he has baggage -- age, injuries, etc -- but, he can still run and catch and Culpepper is still going to throw the ball. Right now, he's the number 2 and I see good things for this guy this year.
-- another guy with baggage but another great pickup where you get him -- IMO. ADP of 14.09 -- 3 SPOTS ahead of Boston!!! Clayton is a real talent and Galloway will benefit from that.
-- I think this guy could do pretty well. One of the most popular pickups off the waiver wire last year until he got injured. Should be back at full speed. Has to compete with Gates, LT and McCardell for balls but, if Brees can keep it up/get better, this guy will get his share at some point -- his ADP of 14.08 could be a bargain.
-- Terry Glenn
. ADP of 15.02. Back in the Bledsoe/Parcells triangle. Michael Jenkins
. WILL supplant Price as #1 very soon -- problem is, he will still have Vick as the one throwing -- ADP of 15.01 for what could be mediocre QB's #1 is a good balance/gamble.
-- aren't they all
Not all TE's are even listed but, I'm listing the late picks that will out perform many TE's taken much earlier.
-- ADP of 13.02 with 13 TE's taken ahead of him -- I see him as top 7 this year. Same timing as Witten was last year and he had to get a big contract for a reason, right?
-- ADP of 15.07. Two rounds and 7 TE's after D. Graham and I believe THIS will be the pass/TD catching TE on the Pats. Go back to TD numbers on Brady -- enough to go around for this guy to make an impact.
-- Chris Cooley
. 6 TD's last year I believe -- someone will catch balls in WAS and this guy is on the right track.
Well--that's all I got....
Hope someone enjoyed it and it helps some people -- or, at minimum, sparks some debate.
Um -- can anyone else tell my girlfriend is out tonight???