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My/Another Sleeper List -- Kind Of.... (kind of long)

Postby clmor » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:08 am

Let me preface by saying that, since there is another "sleeper" thread already at the top, if the mods want to lock this or delete it -- that's fine.

I started this one because sleeper lists and value picks are by far the most interesting topics and debates to me. It actually STARTS at just the title and definition -- what is a "sleeper" or value pick to me could be someone else's target or someone else's trash.

I'm notorious and a glutton for taking fliers on players if I have the chance and some type of gut/instinct reasoning. This is especially true in my "freebie" leagues -- those ranging from 3 man keepers, 5 man/rookie provisional keepers, auction redrafts and dynasty leagues. In my "big" money leagues -- ranging from 100 to 500-- I play it a little closer to the vest but still like the proverbial needle in a haystack pick. :)

With that, my list for players that fall into the above categorization are listed below. Again, some may seem pretty obvious but don't get a lot of mention. A few of them may have a slight personal bias because I have them in one or more of the aforementioned leagues -- as with stocks, I've instituted a full disclosure policy :) . Please feel free to agree or flame me --either way, enjoy!

QB Value

Tom Brady -- More of a value pick than sleeper but he is going a full two rounds later (ADP 7.05) than players like Bulger (ADP 5.01) but the stats don't really support that type of draft position disparity to me. Don't get me wrong though -- I've drafted Bulger at the normal spot multiple times and ALWAYS think it's going to work out great -- still waiting.... Brady's 3 years of starting 16 games he's averaging around 3700 yards and 26 touchdowns -- that starts getting outside "averages" and is now a trend -- those numbers should be as close to locked as you can get in an imperfect environment (the environment being grown men play Fantasy games :) ) Bulger had more yards last year but 7 less touchdowns -- granted, 2.5 games less but, again, we're talking getting Bulger's numbers a full two rounds later.

Jake Plummer (I own this player) -- Much of the reasoning is the same as above -- more yards but more INT's than Brady. ADP of 7.08 gives someone strong stats at a reasonable bargain -- finished as 6th best QB in one of my leagues with fairly standard scoring.

Honorable mention -- Aaron Brooks and Jake Delhomme -- two strong players you get even later (ADP 8 and 9th round) but I'm not expecting as much from them.

QB Sleeper -- I fully expected this to be about C. Palmer but, upon review, he's going just after the above players -- I expect some nice things out of him but not sure about ADP 7.11

David Carr -- 3500 and 16 in his first full 16 game season -- I can only see this getting better. Right now he is going a full 3 rounds later than Palmer (ADP 10.4). They both have a stud WR. They both have good to great RB's. So what causes the difference? Perceived ceiling? Defense? I don't know for sure. But, we're still talking about a category -- sleeper QB -- that you are taking for upside -- probably not as your #1. With that, I like Carr 3 rounds later than a Palmer. Plus, I may be crazy, but I expect Gafney to actually be a legitimate threat and take some heat off AJ -- does it help comparing Gafney to TJ....

J.P. Losman --Yeah, yeah -- this is a deeeep sleeper :) . With that, I'll keep it short. Held a clipboard for a year. Bledsoe was moderately decent last year. Still has Moulds --granted, older. Has a potential star in Evans. Has a solid defense that will keep them in games which should keep HIM in games. And, McGahee. Lot of people lining up to stop that running game leaving WR's a little more open -- so, can he hit him? I don't know but I DO you know you can draft him AFTER your kicker and D :) ADP 15.08.

Honorable mention -- Harrington (I own this player), of course. Warner, hasn't had 3 WR's like this in a lonnnng time -- threw for 41 td's and 36 td's at one point in his career -- is it totally gone, at ADP 11.11 -- it may be time to take him and find out...

RB Value -- tough to call out RB's because of position scarcity so sleepers may be an overstatement -- I think it's all about value. If you're the guy that takes Manning first round and pick a stud WR, this gives you an idea that there is some pretty good talent out there for you to fill your roster out.

Curtis Martin -- I've never been a HUGE fan of his in fantasy but, his production CAN"T be ignored. His ADP is 2.11 and that ranks him as the 16 RB taken -- for the rushing leader last year... Do I expect that again -- no. But, do I expect him to finish 17th with an IMPROVED passing game and still showing few signs of slowing down -- no. Yes, he had a LOT of work last year -- but, this year, if he's there at this spot -- I won't ignore him.

Warrick Dunn -- guy gets a lot of knocks but, he does produce and we're talking an ADP of 4.12. EVERY "stud" rookie RB (Arrington, Brown, Caddy, Benson) is taken before him or at basically the same spot. Bell, Jackson and Jordan are taken basically two rounds in front of him. Do ALL those guys have so many fewer ?? marks than Dunn??? I don't think so by any means.

Honorable Mention -- Everyone who's been burned by taking Michael Bennett in his "breakout" year raise your hand... now EVERYONE lower it :) Injury risk, crowded backfield, 4 second 100 yard dash, blah blah blah -- ADP of 4.06. Same ??? or less than guys above but--the guy is talented and RB's do well in MIN -- hopefully, if you get him, it's Bennett that's the one doing well.
Duce Staley

RB Sleeper

Kevin Barlow -- yeah, maybe belongs in value but he's dropped sooo far. This guy was 1st round/early 2nd last year and hurt a LOT of people so guess what -- he dropped. But, guess what -- we're not talking Ahman Green or Portis level of dropping-- we're talking "he lost a leg drop". ADP of 6.03 -- basically the same as Lee Suggs and CLE's backfield is a LOT more crowded. If you're really worried, grab Gore around the 12th and you can get a starting RB spot midway through your draft.

Vernand Morency -- this may belong as a super sleeper as well but why would Houston take this guy with Davis AND Hollings? Davis is great but he does get a little nicked up. Davis got his JOB by this same circumstance--guy in front gets injured, he steps in and doesn't give it up. Not saying this happens here but, this guy is ADP 15.01 --he's going 4 to 8 rounds AFTER other backup RB's. Could be worth a look depending on roster size.

Honorable Mention -- Stephen Davis. ADP of 10.03 -- 5 rounds AFTER Foster??? Did I TOTALLY miss a memo on the depth chart and/or plans in CAR? Marshall Faulk -- I know about Jackson, I know about Jackson's two knees, I know about them playing on TURF and I know about Martz's craziness and love for Faulk -- ADP of 7.11 -- what are you REALLY getting here if you don't go Faulk....

WR Sleepers -- Everyone has their tiers on WR's and this is the position that is most subjective. With that, I'll just list some guys that I see making some type of impact -- probably not enough in 2 WR leagues but, in dynasty and 3 WR leagues, guys to keep an eye on. You probably don't have to even draft all these guys but, don't be last in line on WW priority or a week late when it's time to get them...

Roddy White (I own this player)-- listing him first because he was on LionTim's list and want to give him props. I'm expecting this guy to make some type of splash. Really wish that he was with someone other than Vick but I still think he can step up. Big and fast -- could DEFINITELY be their #1.

Kevin Curtis (I own this player) -- there were enough balls to go around in Indy... Bulger is not Manning obviously but Curtis IS better than Stokley. Bruce IS getting older even if HE doesnt' know it... :). A safety or LB can't cover this guy -- after the playoffs, Martz HAS to get this guy more playing time. We KNOW Martz wants to throw the ball and this guy helps him do it.

Chris Chambers -- Let guys take Bennett and Coles TWO rounds earlier while your getting better positional talent and getting a better WR later. In the PUTRID MIA offense he still put up 900 and 7. Basically, Andre Johnson production (last year) but you get it 4 rounds later. New coach, new RB and a better QB when Ferrotte wins the job.....

Marcus Robinson (I own this player) -- ADP of 13.07 -- 9 full rounds AFTER Burleson -- even a round after Williamson. Sure, he has baggage -- age, injuries, etc -- but, he can still run and catch and Culpepper is still going to throw the ball. Right now, he's the number 2 and I see good things for this guy this year.

Joey Galloway -- another guy with baggage but another great pickup where you get him -- IMO. ADP of 14.09 -- 3 SPOTS ahead of Boston!!! Clayton is a real talent and Galloway will benefit from that.

Reche Caldwell -- I think this guy could do pretty well. One of the most popular pickups off the waiver wire last year until he got injured. Should be back at full speed. Has to compete with Gates, LT and McCardell for balls but, if Brees can keep it up/get better, this guy will get his share at some point -- his ADP of 14.08 could be a bargain.

Honorable mention -- Terry Glenn. ADP of 15.02. Back in the Bledsoe/Parcells triangle. Michael Jenkins. WILL supplant Price as #1 very soon -- problem is, he will still have Vick as the one throwing -- ADP of 15.01 for what could be mediocre QB's #1 is a good balance/gamble.

TE Sleeper -- aren't they all :) Not all TE's are even listed but, I'm listing the late picks that will out perform many TE's taken much earlier.

Jeb Putzier -- ADP of 13.02 with 13 TE's taken ahead of him -- I see him as top 7 this year. Same timing as Witten was last year and he had to get a big contract for a reason, right?

Ben Watson -- ADP of 15.07. Two rounds and 7 TE's after D. Graham and I believe THIS will be the pass/TD catching TE on the Pats. Go back to TD numbers on Brady -- enough to go around for this guy to make an impact.

Honorable Mention -- Chris Cooley. 6 TD's last year I believe -- someone will catch balls in WAS and this guy is on the right track.

Well--that's all I got.... :) Hope someone enjoyed it and it helps some people -- or, at minimum, sparks some debate.

Um -- can anyone else tell my girlfriend is out tonight??? :)
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Postby kyle2270 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:22 am

Excellent post. I will not be able to respond to all of them, because I am out of time because it took so long to read. But nice perspective and good points made.

I know the take on Brady has always been good QB but not in fantasy, but this guy is consistent as it comes. About 2 td's a game and 225 yards with limited picks nothing outlandish but will not get you single digits either AKA McNabb. Plummer gets knocked because of the crazy stuff he does and throws too many picks in the red zone. I remember last year he even tried switching hands and throwing it, (intercepted of course). David Carr, I took him as a chance last year, he just can't look beyond 10 yards down the field to AJ and dumps to DD too much. I guess it was all those sacks he had his rookie year that got him scared. Losman, I would not touch in a 32 team league and he was the last QB on the board.

Dunn, never gets the love I just worry about the Duckett. But he could really benefit this year as Vick will try and pass more to show he is a QB, thus the dump offs will come. I do like Bennett. I believe contract coming up plus you can easily handcuff him with Moore ad the Vikes will have a good running game this year. If you do need a starter Barlow could fly but I do not see much improvement over last year. They will have a rookie QB again and O-line not much improved. S. Davis is done, put a fork in him. He had same injury that took Terrel Davis out. Foster will be the man who can be had cheap.

Roddy white you are crazy, 2 words Mike Vick. Same for Jenkins. I have been watching Curtis and will keep a close eye on him. He lit it up at the end of the year. I do think Chambers is an excellent pick for where you can get him. Also Driver as well. I like the Gallaway too. He helped me on a couple games last year. Caldwell is not much a sleeper everyone is watching him his stock will rise as season gets closer.

Ben Watson has slipped under the radar on alot of people since he missed last year. I do like Cooley ramsey does too. But a guy I want to wach is how Jolley does with Penny and the O.C. he likes to use the TE.
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Postby maddog60 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:47 am

Excellent post. I like alot of these picks, and thoroughly enjoy seeing ADP when discussing draft value (you've done your research on this, it shows ;-D ). I don't think all of these guys will pan out, but you make valid points about when and why to draft them.

The only one I really argue is Caldwell. He seems to be everyone's SD sleeper WR, and going even further after him is Eric Parker, who I'd say will break out. Then again, if I can get both, even better, and they're very cheap draft picks.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:33 am

Great post! ;-D

Since I agree with most of your sleepers, Ill just comment on the ones I disagree with.

Carr: Id rather have Lefty, Penny, McNair, Griese, Harrington, and Frerotte over Carr. I just dont think he has very big upside at all in that offense, and HOU has a tougher schedule this yr.

Bennett: the loss of Moss means much less room for the running game. MIN's offense is not going to be the same as we are used to at all. MIN also faces a more difficult schedule this yr.

I was riding the Barlowisabust Wagon last yr, so I was able to avoid him - but you are right, he is going so late now, he seems like a szteal. The OLine improvements should help him tremendously. Good call.

Morency - meh, HOU seems to be looking for their future RB every offseason. Last yr it was Hollings, this yr it was Morency. Since DD has had a hard time staying healthy, it would seem one of these guys will see some action, just dont hold your breath.

Davis - Ive read reports he is done other than being a veteran mentor.

Faulk - I have no interest in drafting any RBs expected to get less than 150 touches.

I love the MRob pick. The fact Williamson is being drafted earlier is pretty funny.

Overall a great post - thanks for giving us your insight. ;-D
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Postby fx495232 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:08 am

nice post.

i do admit though, that i am on the palmer bandwagon, so to me he's worth drafting earlier than carr.

and as for barlow, he killed my season last year, so i will probably avoid him. more of a grudge than any fact based thought.
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Postby tanner » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:16 am

David Carr a sleeper?!?!??
while he looked good in the first half of '04, he was abismal in the 2nd half..
last 8 games he threw 7 td & 9 ints..
his comp % was just 58.6% over these games..
Andre Johnson is good, but the lack of a true threat opposite him ( Gaffney and Bradford don't scare anyone, lets be honest!) means AJ is constantly blanketed..
they play a tougher schedule, and I'm not convinced Dom Davis is nothing more than a 1-year wonder..

Stephen Davis is onthe wrong side of 30, has been nicked up too much..he's finished, most's probably Goings, Shelton, Foster fighting for playing guess is Shelton wins the job, Foster is the change of pace back..
love the rest of the list tho..Putzier is gonna be a bigtime player this year..
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:22 am

Very nice post and some good thoughts. I agree with almost all of them.

Two that I'm not too keen on are Roddy White and Kevin Curtis. Sure they are going to be surprising but even a good year for them is not going to make them draft-worthy. The ceilings on both of them are very low but there has been bandwagon interest in them as sleepers - so IMO even considering drafting them is ranking them too high.

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Postby ironman » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:28 am

Yeah I'm not getting the Roddy White love. It seems that IF a receiver finally has a good fantasy season with Vick at the helm that Michael Jenkins would be more primed to be that guy. But neither Jenkins or White I would draft for anything more than a WR4 at best. White seems like one of those late round picks where the manager that makes it gets a bunch of praise and "Nice pick" remarks on draft day, only to be greatly disappointed in the results and eventually dumping him in Week 5 because they need a replacement kicker for the bye week.
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Postby toofunny » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:20 am

White might have a big season, but you need to watch for a few things.

In pre-season, is he the type of reciever that goes after a ball hard. Vick likes to just throw it up, and have his guy go fight for it.

This is why Price sucks. He runs his route, and if the ball isn't right on target, he stops. So many DBs have run through Price to get the pick, Vick just stop throwing to him.

If White shows he can go after the ball, Vick will keep throwing it up. Vick in many ways is like Farve in that respect. He has a cannon for an arm, he's wild, and he throws it up far too much. But with the right WRs, you can get away with that. Price just doesn't have that mindset. He gives up on the play way too early, doesn't fight for the ball, and it ends up being picked.

If you look at the Pro Bowl, Vick can throw the ball. But he has to trust the WR. He doesn't trust any of his WRs currently. That's why when he's in trouble, he goes to Crumpler 99% of the time. If White can show him he'll go after the ball hard, he could easily be the go to guy in crunch time.
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Postby creamdoorthirtyniner » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:40 am

Excellent post d00d ;-D Alot of time looks like it went into that, and I agree with most of them too ;-) Faulk and Davis are both a bit washed up right now, and older, with a faster, shiftier back, who's young in front of them. I just don't see either getting many carries.
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