Let's apply to this an actual situation. Last week, I had a draft for a 12 man keeper league. Here's the roster of the guy with the number 1 overall pick and chose Manning:
QB-Manning
RB-Dunn, Taylor, Staley
WR-C. Johnson, Wayne, Stokely, Williamson, Stallworth
TE-Heap, H. Miller
Ok....now if this team somehow manages to win this league....then I'll be a monkey's uncle
Man, who's to say he won't improve his numbers from last year? That would be cool. I'd draft him #1 overall. I mean just look at Indy's schedule this year.
I've tried both theories this off-season as I've had the luxury of a few instances where I've had the #1 pick (these are dynasty/keeper instances).
When I took Manning #1 overall, I ended up having to field a backfield of Cadillac and Benson, with Henry and Staley as backups.
In my most recent draft, when taking LT2 #1 overall, I ended up with LT2, Jordan and McNabb as my top 3 picks. A trio that I'm more comfortable with, even in a 6 point passing TD system. (The guy who had #2 ended up with Peyton, Cadillac and Holt as his top 3 picks, his #2 back is Foster)
Both were 12-team scenarios.
Through these experiments, I've pretty well determined that if I'm going to take Manning #1 overall, it's going to be in a league with idiots who are going to reach for QBs because they score higher. Only then, would I take Manning #1.
[b][url=http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=224384]What happened to Evo?[/url][/b]
Nowhere in this article does he mention Dan Marino or the history of QBs who have had great seasons and what they did the next year.
After Marino set the old record of 48 TD passes, he fell all the way down to 30 TD passes in the next season. When Marino threw for 44 TDs in a season later in his career, the year following that he only had 26. Kurt Warner once threw for 41 TD passes, he fell to 21 the next season.
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Now consider that Manning has thrown for 30+ TDs only two times in his 7 year career (including his record-breaking 49 last season)... is it out of the question that Manning falls all the way back to 30 or less touchdowns and is nothing more than your average QB next season? Seems to me that recent history has shown us that amazing QB seasons are random events and are not easily replicated. Did you know that Dan Marino only threw for 30+ TDs FOUR TIMES in his entire career? 40+ only twice? I can't say at this point in time if Peyton is the type of QB who has elevated his game to a level above Marino's and will consistently put up huge numbers, or if he is simply riding the wave of one amazing season that will be a footnote for his career.
maddog60 wrote:I have no doubt Manning will be the top fantasy QB this year. I think that's a given. However, the sole best reason to not take him first is this:
Manning Martin Jordan
LT Martin McNabb
Which would you rather have? I think the choice is simple.
In many leagues, McNabb won't b e there at pick 20, 24, or 28, depending on the size of the league.
If you look at the last 3 years, Manning has killed LT in pts in most setups. It's not even close. Manning has been in the top 5 overall the last 3 years. He's the safest bet, with the BIGGEST upside.
The author states it's very close. This whole "never draft a QB #1" logic is moronic. It's a one liner some drunk fantasy player tossed out, and 1000s fools ran with it sharing their new found "wisdom".
If you drafted Manning #1 last year, you had to really TRY not to make the playoffs. There was so much talk of going against the guy "who had manning". I went against LT many times, I never feared him like I did Manning.
People are acting like he had one hot year. He's been doing this for YEARS. He's consistently a top 5 fantasy player, and in my league scoring he's been 1/2/4 the last 3 years.
There is no "wrong" answer. LT or Manning your team is going to win quite a bit. But honestly I take Manning. He's in his prime, he's been awesome the last 3 years, he's never hurt, his offensive is custom built around him, he's had the same OC forever, this guy is just a rock.
LT is great too, but I find it far easier to find a great RB, even off the WW. Look at what JJ did last year. LJ had some monster games. You can find RBs who step up. Droughns had some awesome games for me. There is nothing worse then losing your QB, or having a bum QB.
And lastly, in keeper leagues with 2-5 keeper slots, there are only 3 QBs I'd use a keeper on. Manning, McNabb and Cpep. For RBs, there are at least 10. If you can tell me McNabb is going to be there at the last pick of the 2nd round, then I would take LT. But what if he's gone? Pick Green a 35 year old QB? Ehhh.
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by Free Bagel » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:05 pm 
