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The case for Peyton Manning

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Postby maddog60 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:01 am

toofunny wrote:In many leagues, McNabb won't b e there at pick 20, 24, or 28, depending on the size of the league.


Actually here's the averages of where McNabb is going only using serious mocks in the past month

10 teams: 3.08
12 teams: 3.08

In the most common number of teams a league can have, either number that the vast majority of leagues are he's going at an average position of the 32nd pick. He goes as early as 2.01 and as late as 4.12, but on average he's still there half way through the 3rd round, so with the 3.01 pick you're going to have the opportunity to draft him quite often.
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Postby awwchrist » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:12 am

I'll say this much:

If you're a true believer in VBD, there's much more credence to his proclamation than our traditional thinking would let us believe.

Now I'm not saying Manning is going to put up 40+ TDs and 4K yards in the same year again. But in lieu that McNabb may not have Owens this year, and Culpepper definitely won't have Moss...


Manning's draft value isn't inherently based on his own production...but judging his situation versus his peers at the position.

I've thought about it. Will I buy into it? I dunno yet. It's not even August.
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Postby toofunny » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:43 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
cardiac cats wrote:All you guys saying you would never draft peyton with your 1st pick and that you can pick up Mcnabb 2 or 3 rounds later and be fine with it yada yada yada, just need to stop it... sure that COULD happen, but it just depends on the type of league your in. It would be best if you clarify the type of league your in or posting about. ;-D In my league we start 2 QB's and passing TD's are worth 6 pts.(and by the way, did I just miss the boat on this? Is it standard to just start 1 Qb in most leagues and what are Td's usually worth?) so picking peyton is a very safe and good option. If any of you guys really know football, then you know that peyton is a beast and will EASILY put up at least 30 tds- which is my lowest estimate- and around 4,000 yds.
In our league we had a rookie fantasy football player take peyton with his 1st pick(6th overall) last year, and guess what? He finished 3rd overall... it's obvious that peyton's consistent and great numbers helped him achieve that goal. So IMO, definately consider peyton as the #1 overall, although my judgment is certainly skewed because I play in a 2 Qb league.


1QB is kinda standard these days (if there is such a thing as standard).

Last yr was the 2nd time in his career he broke 30 TDs - but thats your lowest estimate?


Yeah there's this thing called "prime of career" and "custom offense tweaked over 6 years to maximize his skills and signed players to fit into this system creating the most dominate offense in the NFL". I don't think the Colts are suddenly not going to be an offensive powerhouse. Manning is becoming one of the greatest QBs of all time, and to predict a 19 TD dropoff, is probably fairly safe.
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Postby aussieboy » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:48 am

Ok, there is no way I'd take Manning #1. I wouldnt take him over any of the premium RBs, which are generally considered to be LT, SA, Priest. After that, I still doubt i'd take him. However, I think there are arguments that can be made to take Peyton that high.

I only skimmed over the article, but the one thing I don't think it mentioned that I think is absolutely key in predicting whether Peyton will come close to repeating last seasons numbers is the effect of the defensive pass-interference rules.

Check this out:

-In 2003 only 3 quarterbacks had a QB rating greater than 95. In 2004 there were 7.-------a 133% increase. Only 1 QB finished with a rating higher than 100 in 2003, 4 did in 2004.

-In 2003 5 quarterbacks threw for more than 3800 yards, in 2004 9 did.----an 80% increase.

- In 2003 only 2 quarterbacks threw for 27TDs or more, in 2004 9 did.----a 350% increase.

The receivers also felt the impact.

In 2003 only 14 WR had at least 1000 yards receiving, in 2004 that number jumped to 23.----a 64% increase.

Ok, so it's clear that numbers across the board were increased last yr, with the downfield contact rule being the obvious factor. Now unless people think that the rule will not be enforced as strictly as it was last yr, then there is no reason to believe that Manning's numbers will drop significantly.

Do I think that Peyton break his own records? I think that's highly unlikely. However I don't think he will return to his pre-record breaking numbers. This is simply because of the new DB contact rules.

That's why you can't compare Marino with Peyton's numbers. Marino never had a massive change in rule interpretation that helped inflate his numbers signifcantly. Comparing what Marino did post his record breaking season to what Peyton will do is not comparing the same thing. Its clear its been made easier for QBs with the new rule. Does that make Peyton's record breaking TD numbers a bit unfair to Marino? possibly, but we're talking fantasy here.

So in summary, I don't think taking Peyton #1 overall is wise, however I wouldnt criticise someone for taking him in the middle of the first round. If the downfield contact rules are enforced as strictly as last yr, I dont think Mannings numbers will drop that much. A season of say 4500 pass yards and 40TDs is quite possible.
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Postby MadScott » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:24 am

Kensat30 wrote:Nowhere in this article does he mention Dan Marino or the history of QBs who have had great seasons and what they did the next year.

After Marino set the old record of 48 TD passes, he fell all the way down to 30 TD passes in the next season. When Marino threw for 44 TDs in a season later in his career, the year following that he only had 26. Kurt Warner once threw for 41 TD passes, he fell to 21 the next season.
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Now consider that Manning has thrown for 30+ TDs only two times in his 7 year career (including his record-breaking 49 last season)... is it out of the question that Manning falls all the way back to 30 or less touchdowns and is nothing more than your average QB next season? Seems to me that recent history has shown us that amazing QB seasons are random events and are not easily replicated. Did you know that Dan Marino only threw for 30+ TDs FOUR TIMES in his entire career? 40+ only twice? I can't say at this point in time if Peyton is the type of QB who has elevated his game to a level above Marino's and will consistently put up huge numbers, or if he is simply riding the wave of one amazing season that will be a footnote for his career.


This is what has me scared to death about even potentially thinking about drafting Manning in the first, history. We are talking the likes of Marino and Warner among others here, some of the all time greats and some of the streaky wonders of the NFL. If it was so hard for these players to accomplish the feat, why is Manning going to be different?

I understand that he is a student of the game and practice freak but so much goes into all of those TDs. For the most part, that entire offense stayed healthy last season. Are you willing to bet on that again? A bit too much history going against the pick here, IMO.
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Postby aussieboy » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:28 am

If it was so hard for these players to accomplish the feat, why is Manning going to be different?



I take it you don't agree with my reasoning at all?
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Postby Mercer Boy » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:27 am

MadScott wrote:I understand that he is a student of the game and practice freak but so much goes into all of those TDs. For the most part, that entire offense stayed healthy last season. Are you willing to bet on that again? A bit too much history going against the pick here, IMO.


Some people are willing to bet on it, though...for whatever reason.

Someone once told me that the luckiest stat in football is the TD. Last year was just ridiculous for Manning, and once he realized that he had a chance to break the record, they just got even more pass happy.

I really think defenses and defensive coaches in the NFL are going to be more prepared this year for the Colts than before. They still won't be able to stop them most weeks, but they can limit the damage a little more. Maybe that's the reason those super QB's had down years the next year? :-?

If you want to take him over a RB that you know will put up 16-25 points a game, so be it. But, I bet I can find a QB at least 3-4 rounds later (or, probably off the WW - someone always comes out of nowhere) that can at least be in the same area code with Manning. Have fun trying to find an RB 3-4 rounds later that will even come close to LT, SA, or a healthy Priest. Plus, you need two of them compared to one QB (unless you start 2 QB's; that's different).

This year, I would consider Manning in the same bracket as Moss - someone to take at the end of the first round if he's available so that you can swing around and still grab a top-flight RB...but you and I know Manning is not going to be there.

Oh well, it just gives me a better chance to grab a stud RB after the Manning drafters. ;-D
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Postby MadScott » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:34 am

aussieboy wrote:
If it was so hard for these players to accomplish the feat, why is Manning going to be different?



I take it you don't agree with my reasoning at all?


I definitely understand what you are getting at Aussieboy, my point simply is that it just seems like too much history to buck, IMO.
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Postby eaglesrule » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:27 am

number one is too high, because then, you almost have to commit to doing it with manning and receivers, but owens and moss will be sure to be gone, as will the better backs.

At number 4.5 you have to strongly consider it.

There is something to be said about "prime" -- 49 is a tough bet, as that schedule was easy.

But let's say 40. The fact is, culpepper, manning, mcnabb were pretty far ahead of the rest of the back. So if manning has 10 more td's than culppepr mcnabb, that is like you are carrying a "Free" rb in a sense.

But the only way to not get screwed with trash elswhere is to take him mid first round. Then, you can survey the backs left, get something decent, then build that way. I think manning can cover a lot of mediocrity elswhere, and it isn't absurd to take him in the first round -- as it is REASONABLE (not guaranteed) that he will get 35 -40. I'd have to say he is a lock for 30 td's, and that is nice to build around.
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Postby aussieboy » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:21 am

Someone once told me that the luckiest stat in football is the TD.


Not for a QB it's not. Explain then why Manning's numbers have been so consistent over his career. As I explained, last yrs sudden jump in numbers was experienced across the board. Manning being the best quarterback in football obviously was better equipped to take advantage of the rule change. What's there to think that he won't do it again this yr?

Last year was just ridiculous for Manning, and once he realized that he had a chance to break the record, they just got even more pass happy.


C'mon dude, you don't seriously think that the Colts jepardised game results in order to help Manning break touchdown numbers? Remember that week 15 game against Baltimore when Manning took a knee instead of going for the record. Surely that would've been the perfect opportunity to get the record if the Colts seriously were going out of their way to get Manning the record.

I really think defenses and defensive coaches in the NFL are going to be more prepared this year for the Colts than before.


That a nice statement in theory, but at the end of the day it doesn't really mean much. Teams had ample time last yr to look at tape of Peyton and try and think of ways to stop him. I highly doubt that most teams are going to be able to figure out some new defensive super scheme that will all of a sudden be able to stop the pass. Sure the very elite teams will prob not get 4 or 5 TDs thrown on them, but the rest of the league will still be at Peyton's mercy.

You know what, the more I think about it the more I think Manning will throw close to if not 40TDs again. I don't think he'll go much higher than 40, but if he goes for 4500 yards + 40TDs, i think hes worth a mid first round pick.

One thing that I don't think has been touched on before is the big play potential of Manning that makes him so valuable. Many people say that they can draft a solid QB like 5 or 6 rounds later, I don't deny this at all. What I'm saying is, how many of those QBs can litterly win you a game off their back? How many of those QBs had 30+fantasy point weeks? I think this is so valuable in your first round pick. Sure those late first round RBs are solid, giving pretty consistent nice numbers, but other than the first few RBs, I dont think any of the others can win you a matchup by themself....regulalry.

That's my opinion anyway.
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