The case for Peyton Manning

[Sixxgunn]

This is what has me scared to death about even potentially thinking about drafting Manning in the first, history. We are talking the likes of Marino and Warner among others here, some of the all time greats and some of the streaky wonders of the NFL. If it was so hard for these players to accomplish the feat, why is Manning going to be different?

I understand that he is a student of the game and practice freak but so much goes into all of those TDs. For the most part, that entire offense stayed healthy last season. Are you willing to bet on that again? A bit too much history going against the pick here, IMO.

There is one man that can go against the grain on this. Brett Favre. Since 1992 he has never thrown for less than 3227 yds, and has thrown for 30 TD's or more in 8 of those 13 years. 92 was his first year as a starter, and had 18 TD's that year. Not bad huh? Would I compare Peyton to Favre? No. I would say Peyton will outperform Favre in his career. There is no evidence supporting a decline in his production, other than it was his best year yet. Favre's best year was 95, when he threw for 4413 yds and 38 TD's, and 3 rushing TD's. Next year he went for 3899 and 39, and 2 rushing. A slight decline in yards, but enough to say that he didn't warrant being drafted as high, or higher than he was the year before? I think not. All that aside, I'm not drafting Peyton 1,2, or 3. After that, I will give him a long, hard look.

[eaglesrule]

History is a useful barometor, but it isn't the only thing.

History didn't count for Jordan, it doesn't count for Woods, Gretzky etc. Singularly qualified athletes buck the trends, which is why we love them (or hate them) so dearly.

Peyton is one of those athletes, like it or lump it.

I can't think of another QB in the history of the game who has his physical talents, his mental ability and his upbringing. I mean serisouly, his own dad was an NFL QB. There haven't been many signal callers who have the pedigree Peyton does.

And, I can't think of another QB that benefits from the Offesive squad he has, and a phislophy like the Colts have. Now he has the rules on his side too.

Want to argue that he won't break his own record? Fine, I feel the same way.

But to call on history as if it is some immovable force that Peyton can't buck is absurd. I'd say he is more than qualified to keep this up, and given his skills, and what we have seen, its likely he will keep things up. By up I mean 30 plus td's.

[Mercer Boy]

Heh, I'll spare the point by point reply...I have heard that it makes us football Cafe'rs look bad (right Mook?).

How are TD's not a fluke for anyone, including QB's? Any play can be a potential TD, and no play is a "sure thing," even in the red zone.

I remember reading that the major reason why they passed more near the goal line was because Edge couldn't get it done in the RZ and Manning was. Well, that was last year; this is a new year.

Last year doesn't mean they'll always pass when they're down there again. It doesn't mean they won't try Edge in the RZ again this year. Defenses probably expect them to pass, so maybe they will try to sneak it in with a run when the field is spread. What if Edge starts punching it in at a better pace, and then they give him the ball down there more? That's surely going to reduce Manning's TD totals. You simply can't know what they will do in a game-by-game basis; that's why TD's are luck.

The only other thing I'm going to touch on is that you don't need a QB to "win you a game off his back" if your team is very balanced. Give me a QB that always gets 10-15 points (50/4 league), 2 RB's that always combine for 30, 3 WR's that always combine for 25-30, a TE that always gets 3-6 points, a K that gets 7, and a DEF that scores 10, and I'll give you a playoff contending fantasy team every year. That's how I've always selected the players for my teams, and I've never finished lower than 3rd in a fantasy football league. I win most of the close games because of my consistency. I don't need Manning or any other player to score 40 points to beat someone most weeks. The other guy normally does...and if the rest of his guys bomb, he'll still lose.

I'm not going to deny Manning will put up huge numbers. It seems that he will be good for around 3800-4200 yards and 30-35 TD's. But, 49 TD's is simply way too much to expect. Even 40 is pushing it, but it is attainable. There are too many examples of past QB's with pass-happy offenses regressing back to the mean after a huge year. Manning is consistent, yes...but if that consistency is not markedly better than the mid-range QB's in the league, that first pick will put you at a disadvantage.

Fantasy football drafting does involve risk...so I'm not going to "tell" anyone not to draft Manning that high. But, you'd better be prepared when you find that you're getting beat by 5 points each week because your RB's stunk and the other guy's team was more balanced.

Fantasy football also involves opinion. I respect your opinion aussieboy, but I disagree with it.

[aussieboy]

Ooops, sorry didn't realise the point by point rebuttal was considered not cool. Sorry.

Anyway, agree with you in the sense that your opinion is just that, you opinion. If we all agree on everything, there would be no point in the fantasyfootballcafe. Good to get solid debate going. At the end of the day though you're right, its just a difference of opinion. Who knows what will happen?

[Mercer Boy]

Ooops, sorry didn't realise the point by point rebuttal was considered not cool. Sorry.

Nah, don't worry about it! It's sort of an inside joke...

Quote by point at will! That's what we do here!

[MadScott]

This is what has me scared to death about even potentially thinking about drafting Manning in the first, history. We are talking the likes of Marino and Warner among others here, some of the all time greats and some of the streaky wonders of the NFL. If it was so hard for these players to accomplish the feat, why is Manning going to be different?

I understand that he is a student of the game and practice freak but so much goes into all of those TDs. For the most part, that entire offense stayed healthy last season. Are you willing to bet on that again? A bit too much history going against the pick here, IMO.

There is one man that can go against the grain on this. Brett Favre. Since 1992 he has never thrown for less than 3227 yds, and has thrown for 30 TD's or more in 8 of those 13 years. 92 was his first year as a starter, and had 18 TD's that year. Not bad huh? Would I compare Peyton to Favre? No. I would say Peyton will outperform Favre in his career. There is no evidence supporting a decline in his production, other than it was his best year yet. Favre's best year was 95, when he threw for 4413 yds and 38 TD's, and 3 rushing TD's. Next year he went for 3899 and 39, and 2 rushing. A slight decline in yards, but enough to say that he didn't warrant being drafted as high, or higher than he was the year before? I think not. All that aside, I'm not drafting Peyton 1,2, or 3. After that, I will give him a long, hard look.

Right, but we aren't talking about taking Brett Favre number 1 or even in the first round because 30 TDs, while good, is somewhat pedestrian. My concern is whether or not Peyton is going to crack 40TDs this year, a far different mark than 30 TDs.

[Sixxgunn]

Right, but we aren't talking about taking Brett Favre number 1 or even in the first round because 30 TDs, while good, is somewhat pedestrian. My concern is whether or not Peyton is going to crack 40TDs this year, a far different mark than 30 TDs.

No, you misunderstood the point of that post. It wasn't so much even directed at where or when anyone should be drafted, especially Brett, but the fact that history can be discounted just as much as it can be used as a factor when gauging players. Brett proved it's possible to elevate your game and stay there with no real discernible dropoff for years, and I believe Peyton is one of those guys as well. And no, 30 TD's is not pedestrian. Find another QB that has averaged approximately 30 for their career. Actually the number is 28.8, and if you find one, I'll dare you to find two just to prove the scarcity of it. While 30 in one season isn't necessarily a huge feat, not many QB's get there. Only four had 30 or more last season, which was supposed to favor the passers with the new enforcement of the contact rule. In 2003 there was only one...Brett. In 2002 there were none. So no, pedestrian it is not.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

So no, pedestrian it is not.

Compared to 49 it is.

I think thats the argument - 30 TDs is very very good - but it isnt so good that it deserves a #1 overall pick.

If you think Manning wont regress - and you expect near 50 TDs again - then you need to give the Manning owner whatever he asks because he will be worth much much more than anyone else again (save for Cpepp - if you dont think he will regress either of course).

If you expect 40 TDs, then yeah - I can see a #1 pick with him, but its not #1 with and exclamation point - more like a debateable #1.

If you expect 30 TDs then he isnt a first rd pick. This is the camp Im in.

[Azrael]

I just think it's much easier for me to cut the production gap down at QB and find more value there for much longer in the draft than it is historically at RB.

In all the 10-12 team mocks I've done this year, I don't think I've ever thought the Manning owner's team was one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the league...especially in flex leagues where you can start 3 RBs, that team usually appears to be in big trouble on paper.

[Free Bagel]

No, you misunderstood the point of that post. It wasn't so much even directed at where or when anyone should be drafted, especially Brett, but the fact that history can be discounted just as much as it can be used as a factor when gauging players. Brett proved it's possible to elevate your game and stay there with no real discernible dropoff for years, and I believe Peyton is one of those guys as well.

This doesn't make any sense. Brett Favre had 33 TDs the year before he had 38, he went up all of 5 TDs. With Manning we're talking a 20+ TD increase from his SIX YEAR average.

He went:
26
26
33
26
27
29
49

Which does not fit?

Besides that, of course players can elevate their game and stay at that level, players do it all the time. The Brett Favre example is no different than any player that scores a few TDs for a couple years and then "breaks out" to a new level and stays there. Torry Holt is another example, they're everywhere, you've just stated the obvious.

But that's not really what we're talking about. Sure, players can elevate their game and stay there, but what we're talking about here is whether or not players can elevate their game to record-breaking levels and stay there, and history tells us that the answer to that is a resounding no.