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Postby aussieboy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:13 pm

Free Bagel wrote:So is Manning replacing Mcgahee as the new man-crush top 5 guy? No way he even comes close to touching my top 10.


I'm just curious. Is it simply that you don't believe Manning will come even close to repeating last seasons numbers, and thus isnt worth a first round pick? Or do you think despite the monster numbers he might put up again, you still wouldnt take him in the top 10?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:28 pm

johnrambo wrote:I play in a 12 team league, drafting a wr 5th overall is a huge gamble. I like Randy Moss here in leagues with 10 or fewer teams because you have a good chance to land a #1 back in the 2nd round. I really like Moss this year. Deuce in a 12 team league, you need a solid rb and that probabaly wont be avaible when it get backs around. Under no circumstance would I take E. James here. Manning spreads the ball around too much and James is a horrible runner inside the 10 yard line.


Good post - this is where I am too.

I often waiver between Deuce and Moss here - it really depends on the league.

As for Peyton - he is about 10th range for me. 30-35 TDs tops. Id draft him if he fell that far, but I wouldnt feel good about it.
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Postby Free Bagel » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:49 pm

aussieboy wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:So is Manning replacing Mcgahee as the new man-crush top 5 guy? No way he even comes close to touching my top 10.


I'm just curious. Is it simply that you don't believe Manning will come even close to repeating last seasons numbers, and thus isnt worth a first round pick? Or do you think despite the monster numbers he might put up again, you still wouldnt take him in the top 10?


I've gone deeper into my feelings about where Manning is being drafted many times before, so I'll keep this brief.

The guy has broken 30 TDs all of twice in his career, and his numbers this past year seem like more of an abberation to me. Historically, every player that has broken a record has returned to their career averages the next year, and for Manning that is under 30 TDs. I don't think he'll fall that far, 35 TDs or so, which would likely put him just ahead of Brett Favre in fantasy points, at about 8 rounds difference in cost.

Manning wasn't even on very many championship fantasy teams when he put up 49 TDs (TWENTY TDs above his SIX YEAR career average!!) at the expense of a THIRD ROUND pick. In all likelihood this year he'll end up somewhere in the 30-40 TD range at the expense of a 1st round pick. So if these Manning owners weren't successful with a 50 TD guy as a 3rd round pick, how are they going to be so with a 35 TD guy as a 1st round pick?

By the way, this is coming from a slow, pocket ex-quarterback (HS) who absolutely cannot stand the fact that RBs (which is an easy position involving players with naturally born talent) hold so much more value over the much more valuable to their real-life team QBs.

As someone who wishes that FF was more QB based rather than RB based, I still wouldn't think about touching Manning in the top 10.
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Postby agchris02 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:01 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Manning wasn't even on very many championship fantasy teams when he put up 49 TDs (TWENTY TDs above his SIX YEAR career average!!) at the expense of a THIRD ROUND pick. In all likelihood this year he'll end up somewhere in the 30-40 TD range at the expense of a 1st round pick. So if these Manning owners weren't successful with a 50 TD guy as a 3rd round pick, how are they going to be so with a 35 TD guy as a 1st round pick?


Oh really? According to espn, Manning or Cullpepper was on 47.2% of the championship teams, and one of the two was on almost 70% of the top 2 fantasy teams. Don't know where you get those stats.

And here's the math so you can stop spouting off crap:
(bear in mind this is for leagues that scored TD's as 6 pts for everyone, other than that it was standard -- 1pt 25 yds passing, 1pt 10yds rushing, -1 for fumble/interception, etc.)

Peyton Manning Scored 470 points
Cullpepper scored 460
Shaun Alexander scored 312
Tiki Barber 306
LT 292
Curtis Martin 289
Edge 264
D Davis 263
C Dillon 252
R Johnson 224
W McGahee 212
P Holmes 203

MANNING SCORED 170 points more than the TOP RB, bring in the you start 2 RBs, ok, lets, here are the avg potentials

Lets say you drafted Shaun Alexander, R Johnson, and D McNabb 1,2,3 last year -- that was 903 (mcnabb finished with 367)

OR you could have gone Manning, R Johnson(still in the 2nd), and B Westbrook (if youre curious im using espn's draft avgs from last year) then you wuold have had 904 -- virtually identical results.

That said, if you look at the variance in backs -- you could have had deuce or A Green VERY EASILY over manning, then youre off by over 100 pts.

Lets say manning throws 10 TDs less, and 200 yrds less -- thats 86 pts off his last yr total, meaning, unless you picked THE BEST BACK, looking at the past history in rounds one and two, picking manning would have had you much better off.

The same will be true this year, Half of the backs drafted in the top 10 WILL NOT FINISH in the top 10. Manning WILL BE one of the top 2 QBs.

There's a reason why in every expert draft, Manning is going in the first 3 picks. Other than LT, ONLY manning is a sure fire consistant bet, barring injury. So what, he scores 10 less TDs, and a few 100 yrds less passing -- HE STILL OUTSCORES EVERY RB. So unless you KNOW (and i dont believe you), the best back to take in rounds 1 and 2, without a doubt, manning should be one of the first two players selected

Note: if your qbs only get 4pts, then that drops manning till the end of the 1st begining of the 2nd
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Postby aussieboy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:15 pm

(bear in mind this is for leagues that scored TD's as 6 pts for everyone, other than that it was standard -- 1pt 25 yds passing, 1pt 10yds rushing, -1 for fumble/interception, etc.)


I think that had a massive impact on the results.

Most leagues I think have passing tds as 4pnts, with receiving and rushing tds as 6.

I don't think anyone would argue with Peytons ADP if passing TDs were worth 6 points.
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Postby Warpigs » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:23 pm

agchris02 wrote:
And here's the math so you can stop spouting off crap:



Easy there, tiger. Bagel is a vet here. I wouldn't come in and start a fight here. You make your point well and you're right in asking others to consider your viewpoint here.

However, you also need to look at the other side of the coin. The point isn't in comparing Manning to other top RB. It's in looking at value overall. Favre can be had several rounds later. The point is that you can afford to take a stud RB -- of which there are much less overall than QB who can score well -- and pair him up with Favre for a winning combination. It's better than praying that Manning can carry your team when you have to take a flyer on a second-tier RB that may fall apart. I don't have all the stats with me, but teams with Favre-Shaun Alexander last year (I'd imagine) would have beaten a Peyton-Kevan Barlow squad (remember, Barlow was a legit second round back heading into last year).
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Postby MadScott » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:53 am

agchris02 wrote:Oh really? According to espn, Manning or Cullpepper was on 47.2% of the championship teams, and one of the two was on almost 70% of the top 2 fantasy teams. Don't know where you get those stats.

And here's the math so you can stop spouting off crap:
(bear in mind this is for leagues that scored TD's as 6 pts for everyone, other than that it was standard -- 1pt 25 yds passing, 1pt 10yds rushing, -1 for fumble/interception, etc.)

Peyton Manning Scored 470 points
Cullpepper scored 460
Shaun Alexander scored 312
Tiki Barber 306
LT 292
Curtis Martin 289
Edge 264
D Davis 263
C Dillon 252
R Johnson 224
W McGahee 212
P Holmes 203

MANNING SCORED 170 points more than the TOP RB, bring in the you start 2 RBs, ok, lets, here are the avg potentials

Lets say you drafted Shaun Alexander, R Johnson, and D McNabb 1,2,3 last year -- that was 903 (mcnabb finished with 367)

OR you could have gone Manning, R Johnson(still in the 2nd), and B Westbrook (if youre curious im using espn's draft avgs from last year) then you wuold have had 904 -- virtually identical results.

That said, if you look at the variance in backs -- you could have had deuce or A Green VERY EASILY over manning, then youre off by over 100 pts.

Lets say manning throws 10 TDs less, and 200 yrds less -- thats 86 pts off his last yr total, meaning, unless you picked THE BEST BACK, looking at the past history in rounds one and two, picking manning would have had you much better off.

The same will be true this year, Half of the backs drafted in the top 10 WILL NOT FINISH in the top 10. Manning WILL BE one of the top 2 QBs.

There's a reason why in every expert draft, Manning is going in the first 3 picks. Other than LT, ONLY manning is a sure fire consistant bet, barring injury. So what, he scores 10 less TDs, and a few 100 yrds less passing -- HE STILL OUTSCORES EVERY RB. So unless you KNOW (and i dont believe you), the best back to take in rounds 1 and 2, without a doubt, manning should be one of the first two players selected

Note: if your qbs only get 4pts, then that drops manning till the end of the 1st begining of the 2nd


You are looking at two guys in Manning and Culpepper that not only had career years, but in Manning's case, a record year. I'm not saying that it won't be impossible for him to top that record, but it's highly improbable.

As for Manning being a sure fire consistent bet, you are correct, but not for the numbers that you seem to be projecting him at. From another thread:

Free Bagel wrote:With Manning we're talking a 20+ TD increase from his SIX YEAR average.

He went:
26
26
33
26
27
29
49


That average looks alot closer to 30 to me than 40.
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Postby joshyboy72 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:07 am

If quarterbacks score big in your league, I think it's Peyton without a doubt at #4, or even higher. I mean really, with his production all you need are half as productive other starters to compete. And if you can get lucky with a Tatum Bell in the third round or a player like that you're golden.

And I'll be the first to say that I disagree that he'll throw only 30-35 touchdowns next season. Just because something happened 20 years ago doesn't mean it will happen again...Peyton is at the prime of his career and while he will not reach his touchdown total of last season again, he will throw 40. Defenses will be adjusting to the contact rule...but it still exists. Peyton will be posting consistent, studly numbers in your lineup every week and never be bothered by injury.

But back to the main point of this thread... McGahee is the man at #5, still, IMO. Too much potential to pass up, and now no Henry there either.

Now Free Bagel is probably going to make some huge rebuttal...what did I get myself into :-D
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Postby Free Bagel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:22 am

AgChris, your arguement doesn't make any sense. You're trying to argue that Manning is a better pick because he scores more points, that's going backwards 15 years of FF development and un-learning everything that we've all learned in that time.

If the player that scored more points was a better draft pick we'd all be taking QBs in the first round. Brett Favre scored more points than Edgerrin James last year, does that mean you should take Favre in the 1st ahead of Edge? Of course it doesn't.

What you're entirely and totally missing out on is the whole idea of value based drafting, which is just about as basic an idea as there is an FF.

So Manning, a round 2 RB, and a round 3 RB outscore RB, RB, RB in the first 3 rounds. So what? Why don't you add in the second team's round 8 QB as someone like Favre who's good for 3500/30 (not much less than I think Manning will go for this year) or Brooks, and give team 1 their round 8 RB and see where those numbers run you.

My guess is that Manning outscores Favre by about 60 or 70 points this year, at 7 or 8 rounds of difference in value. Why don't you check on the point differential between a 1st and 7th/8th round RB.
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Postby Juhlz » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:15 am

Back to the point of the thread...Jamal is my #5 pick should I have that slot.
Points:
1. Great D, grind it out playcalling philosophy.
2. Upgraded passing attack will keep d's more honest.
3. Even when Jamal faces 8 man fronts it actually benefits him because he busts through the first line and then has only 2 or 3 more guys to get by or run over.
4. Maturing QB
5. He has a chip on his shoulder.
6. He is proven
7. Doesn't lose goal line carries

Points against others who may land at #5

Willis: limited passing success leads to predictable playcalling and 8 man fronts. A solid later first round pick though.
Deuce: Good but not better than Jamal unless you get a point per reception.
Moss: receivers are too inconsistent to pick in the first round. New system, questionable character(quitting on plays, team)
Edge: solid but ball is spread around too much to take here.
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