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Postby Azrael » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:37 am

I think the main point here is, whether you think he is worth a first round pick or not doesn't mean you should take him in the first round. Since no one else thinks he is, you can probably get him in the 3rd round. That's called "value" to you. So spend your first rounder on someone else.
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Postby MeShawn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:05 pm

I'm one of the Jordan doubters. I've said it once, and I'll say it again, but Lamont is going to be a bust this season.


1. Oakland has the 2nd worst SOS for RB's (only ahead of the Jets). No matter how good a RB may be, if you have the 2nd worst SOS, it's going to take a major hit on your stats. If you look at even the top RB's, when they play strong run defense teams, it kills their stats. To ignore SOS is just foolish.

2. Lamont is unbelievably unproven. The guy hasn't even had 500 yards rushing in a season, yet he's being drafted in the late 2nd/early 3rd. He's never had 100 carries in a season.

This guy painfully reminds me of Troy Hambrick and Amos Zereoue.

Jordan '04: 93 carries, 479 yds, 5.2 ypc, 2 TD's
Hambrick '01: 113 carries, 579 yds, 5.1 ypc, 2 TD's
Zereoue '01: 85 carries, 441 yds, 5.2 ypc, 1 TD


Lamont is being unbelievably overrated becuase of that 5.2 ypc.

These three have eerily similar stats, huh?

Going into 2002, Zero, and going into 2003, Hambrick, were both going in the 3rd/4th rounds.


Then they were handed the starting jobs and here's how they did.

Zereoue '02: 193 carries, 762 yds, 3.9 ypc, 4 TD's
Hambrick '03, 275 carries, 972 yds, 3.5 ypc, 5 TD's



Needless to say, they both dissopointed mightly.

Any RB can produce well in a small sample. You can't determine how a RB is going to fare over 300 carries until they actually get that load. Many fail. I'm not guaranteeing Lamont to fail, but he's too much of a risk to feel comfortable taking him in the 2nd/early 3rd round. I don't expect Lamont to fail like Zero and Hambrick, but he easily do so. Chances are he'll get no where close to living up to expectations.
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Postby moochman » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:23 pm

Another factor to consider is that the Raiders D sux. They might have more than a few games where they don't get the chance to develop a run game.

If you think that he will fall to you in the third, a real possibility, then grab a stud RB and a C-Pepp or Moss/TO. If you guess right about Jordan then you've a real good start to you team. Good luck.
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Postby bagobonez » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:07 pm

MeShawn wrote:I'm one of the Jordan doubters. I've said it once, and I'll say it again, but Lamont is going to be a bust this season.


1. Oakland has the 2nd worst SOS for RB's (only ahead of the Jets). No matter how good a RB may be, if you have the 2nd worst SOS, it's going to take a major hit on your stats. If you look at even the top RB's, when they play strong run defense teams, it kills their stats. To ignore SOS is just foolish.

2. Lamont is unbelievably unproven. The guy hasn't even had 500 yards rushing in a season, yet he's being drafted in the late 2nd/early 3rd. He's never had 100 carries in a season.

This guy painfully reminds me of Troy Hambrick and Amos Zereoue.

Jordan '04: 93 carries, 479 yds, 5.2 ypc, 2 TD's
Hambrick '01: 113 carries, 579 yds, 5.1 ypc, 2 TD's
Zereoue '01: 85 carries, 441 yds, 5.2 ypc, 1 TD


Lamont is being unbelievably overrated becuase of that 5.2 ypc.

These three have eerily similar stats, huh?

Going into 2002, Zero, and going into 2003, Hambrick, were both going in the 3rd/4th rounds.


Then they were handed the starting jobs and here's how they did.

Zereoue '02: 193 carries, 762 yds, 3.9 ypc, 4 TD's
Hambrick '03, 275 carries, 972 yds, 3.5 ypc, 5 TD's



Needless to say, they both dissopointed mightly.

Any RB can produce well in a small sample. You can't determine how a RB is going to fare over 300 carries until they actually get that load. Many fail. I'm not guaranteeing Lamont to fail, but he's too much of a risk to feel comfortable taking him in the 2nd/early 3rd round. I don't expect Lamont to fail like Zero and Hambrick, but he easily do so. Chances are he'll get no where close to living up to expectations.


SOS can be a bit overated in itself though. I remember last year, I was trying to decide between Rudi Johnson and Kevan Barlow. (don't laugh) Barlow was supposed to be the workhorse in SF, and was facing a really easy schedule. Rudi, on the other hand, had by far and away the hardest schedule for RB's, facing Pitt and Baltimore twice each, and having to deal with the possibility of Chris Perry stealing touches. I went for the schedule instead of going for the player, and it bit me. Barlow sucked, Rudi owned, and I wasted a 2nd round pick.

Bottom line is, look at the player's situation first and foremost. How many touches will they get? Are they proven? Are they durable?

I think SOS should be one of the last things you look for. It certainly should be taken into consideration, especially during playoff weeks, but where the rubber meets the road is the player's talent and how his team utilizes him.
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Postby toofunny » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:22 pm

I hope you're also planning to grab Foster in the 1st round. *lol*

Jordan is a *flier*. There's a reason he's been a backup. He's not that good. If any fool drafts him in the 1st round I would probably die laughing and be unable to do my draft.

I'd use a 7th round pick on him, and that's pushing it. There's so many factors against him, it's not even funny. A lifetime backup RB, goes to a team with the worst D in the league, who will pass far more then run. This guy won't even sniff 1000 yards.
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Postby maddog60 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:32 pm

Nice post meshawn.

I would not be one of those in the crowd that thinks Lamont will be a top 10 RB or anything on that level. I'm hoping (as he is my #2 in one league) that he can play top 20, but I'd most certainly never draft him before the 3rd round as better more proven RBs are gauranteed to be there in the 2nd.

Lamont has lots of a potential, and I do like the effort he shows when I've seen him run, but I think all of the hype of Oakland in general needs to be tempered.

Collins has at his best been like Favre at his worst. He could put up 300 yards 3 TDs, or throw 10 picks in 3 games.

Moss, while fantasy's perennial top WR, is switching to a different system, a new division, new QB, the chicken vs. the egg argument with Culpepper and Moss will be known after this year, but its no coincidence Culpepper/Moss and Manning/Marvin were both elite WR and QBs with such consistency.

Jordan will get the looks, but will he produce. If he were such a talented RB, why wouldn't the Jets have attempted to retain him and trade Martin (yes, trade C-Mart), because Jordan would clearly be better in the long run due to age.

They don't exactly have a cake walk schedule. They play the NFC and AFC East divisions.

Miami still had a strong defense last year, and with an offense this year, might win a few. Buffalo's and NY's defenses were some of the best, and the Pats even with their personnel losses still have the NFL's top defensive mastermind, Belichek.

Washington and Philly last year were 2 of the top 5 defenses. You could argue that Washington lost a little on defense, but neither is going to lay down a doormat for a RB. Dallas got something like 5 DL and LB draft picks. They went young, but they're revamping that DEF, and the Giants quietly made a few upgrades to an already good defense.

Then there's the division. Sure, its fairly weak on the whole defensively, but they're now the worst defense in the division. KC got serious about defense finally, the chargers spent 2 1st rounders on D, and is usually known for being the best defense there in recent years.

Overall, its a year for Jordan to prove alot. I think he'll make it in the NFL as a starter, but I would not want to have to rely on him weekly in fantasy football.
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Postby agchris02 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:34 pm

toofunny wrote:I hope you're also planning to grab Foster in the 1st round. *lol*

Jordan is a *flier*. There's a reason he's been a backup. He's not that good. If any fool drafts him in the 1st round I would probably die laughing and be unable to do my draft.

I'd use a 7th round pick on him, and that's pushing it. There's so many factors against him, it's not even funny. A lifetime backup RB, goes to a team with the worst D in the league, who will pass far more then run. This guy won't even sniff 1000 yards.


Ok thats a little harsh -- ANY RB WHO IS THE SOLE STARTER should be off the board way before round 7. I personally think jordan should go at the end of the 3rd -- if youre high on him take him with your 2nd pick, if not and he falls to you in the 5th, happily grin and take a risk. Is he a for sure thing, no -- but with Oaklands passing attack, his numbers (yes I know he hasnt had a full season, if he really avg 5+ yds a carry on oaklands team, hed be a sure fire first round pick), but unless Oakland is planning on going back to fargas or something, L Jordan is going to be given some leeway.

The ideal, and VERY LIKELY situation for any LJ owner, who took him in the third round, is one month into the season, he's tearing it up, and to trade for a TOP WR with him. Or pare him with a mediocre RB for someone like LT or SA who is under performing (if they are) at that point. I think he's likely to burn out over a full season, but Id definitely take a shot on him in the 4th or 5th.
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Postby aussieboy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:05 pm

MeShawn wrote:I'm one of the Jordan doubters. I've said it once, and I'll say it again, but Lamont is going to be a bust this season.


1. Oakland has the 2nd worst SOS for RB's (only ahead of the Jets). No matter how good a RB may be, if you have the 2nd worst SOS, it's going to take a major hit on your stats. If you look at even the top RB's, when they play strong run defense teams, it kills their stats. To ignore SOS is just foolish.

2. Lamont is unbelievably unproven. The guy hasn't even had 500 yards rushing in a season, yet he's being drafted in the late 2nd/early 3rd. He's never had 100 carries in a season.

This guy painfully reminds me of Troy Hambrick and Amos Zereoue.

Jordan '04: 93 carries, 479 yds, 5.2 ypc, 2 TD's
Hambrick '01: 113 carries, 579 yds, 5.1 ypc, 2 TD's
Zereoue '01: 85 carries, 441 yds, 5.2 ypc, 1 TD


Lamont is being unbelievably overrated becuase of that 5.2 ypc.

These three have eerily similar stats, huh?

Going into 2002, Zero, and going into 2003, Hambrick, were both going in the 3rd/4th rounds.


Then they were handed the starting jobs and here's how they did.

Zereoue '02: 193 carries, 762 yds, 3.9 ypc, 4 TD's
Hambrick '03, 275 carries, 972 yds, 3.5 ypc, 5 TD's



Needless to say, they both dissopointed mightly.

Any RB can produce well in a small sample. You can't determine how a RB is going to fare over 300 carries until they actually get that load. Many fail. I'm not guaranteeing Lamont to fail, but he's too much of a risk to feel comfortable taking him in the 2nd/early 3rd round. I don't expect Lamont to fail like Zero and Hambrick, but he easily do so. Chances are he'll get no where close to living up to expectations.



I don't agree with this argument at all.

1. You're saying that Oakland's SOS is going to limit Lamont Jordan's production. I'm not gonna say that it will be easy for Jordan against these tough opponents, but I will say that I think SOS is way overrated.

Going into last season here are the teams that were considered to have the 10 toughest SOS.

New Orleans
Washington
Atlanta
Carolina
Tennesee
Philidelphia
Tampa Bay
Indiana
New England
NY Jets

Here's what those teams RBs produced over the season:

Duece-1202 total yards + 9TDs

Portis 1500 total yards + 7TDs

Dunn 1400 total yards + 9TDs

Goings 900 total yards + 6TDs in 7 games as the starter

Chris Brown 1214 total yards + 6TDs in 11 games

Westbrook 1515 total yards + 9TDs

Pittman 1317 total yards + 10TDs in 13 games

Edge 2031 total yards + 9TDs

Dillon 1738 total yards + 13 TDs

Cmart 1942 total yards + 14TDs

Those were the guys that had going into last season the toughest SOS on paper.

In terms of yards rushing per game 5 of those guys finished in the top 11, and a few more wouldve as well if total yards was taken into account. With Deuce limited last yr due to injury, Portis playing for a new team I don't see how SOS was really a huge impact. Curtis Martin won the rushing title for crying out loud!

Anyway, my point is is that whilst using SOS to differentiate between two guys who you rank v.similarly is worthwhile, it is NOT worthwhile to use SOS soley to beat down on a guys projection.

2. Your second point against Jordan was that he was unproven. You used a couple of examples to show that unproven guys could become busts. I agree with your analysis of those guys that had done well with a low number of carries but were busts when given the full load.

For the number of unproven guys that were busts, there are a number of unproven guys who put in the right situation became studs. In fact, all the current studs at one point in their career were unproven. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM. The guys that are smart will be the ones that can highlight a good situation with a RB and draft them when their value is way below where they should be.

The key here is Randy Moss. I don't think people quite realise how much of an impact Moss has on the running game. The Vikings in recent times have had one of, if not the best ypc average for the team. With Moss pulling out a safety from run support, the RB has an extra blocker to run downfield with. It's that simple. The vertical passing game of Oakland will help Jordan immensley, and with Norv's history of using his RBs heavily, I personally think Jordan is a sure bet this yr.

The other main argument I hear against not only Jordan but other RBs that play on poor teams is the whole: "Their team's defense sux so they will be behind early and will have to abandon the run". Yeh, sure Preist Holmes has really suffered cos of the bad KC defense, oh and having LT all these years has really sucked. Simply put, if the RB is good enough the team will continue to run.

Lamont Jordan is currently the 18th RB coming off the board according to Antsports. Exactly what high expectations are you talking about MeShawn? I'm one of the few that are predicting Jordan to be a stud this yr. The other RBs that people can draft roughly in the same spot as Jordan are: Steven Jackson, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown and the rookies. If Jordan doesn't put up top 10 RB numbers, i'll eat my hat, and as i've stated before I think he could put up top 5 numbers. Jordan will elevate himself to stud status by seasons end.
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Postby houstonherdfan » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:18 pm

MeShawn wrote:I'm one of the Jordan doubters. I've said it once, and I'll say it again, but Lamont is going to be a bust this season.


1. Oakland has the 2nd worst SOS for RB's (only ahead of the Jets). No matter how good a RB may be, if you have the 2nd worst SOS, it's going to take a major hit on your stats. If you look at even the top RB's, when they play strong run defense teams, it kills their stats. To ignore SOS is just foolish.

2. Lamont is unbelievably unproven. The guy hasn't even had 500 yards rushing in a season, yet he's being drafted in the late 2nd/early 3rd. He's never had 100 carries in a season.

This guy painfully reminds me of Troy Hambrick and Amos Zereoue.

Jordan '04: 93 carries, 479 yds, 5.2 ypc, 2 TD's
Hambrick '01: 113 carries, 579 yds, 5.1 ypc, 2 TD's
Zereoue '01: 85 carries, 441 yds, 5.2 ypc, 1 TD


Lamont is being unbelievably overrated becuase of that 5.2 ypc.

These three have eerily similar stats, huh?

Going into 2002, Zero, and going into 2003, Hambrick, were both going in the 3rd/4th rounds.


Then they were handed the starting jobs and here's how they did.

Zereoue '02: 193 carries, 762 yds, 3.9 ypc, 4 TD's
Hambrick '03, 275 carries, 972 yds, 3.5 ypc, 5 TD's



Needless to say, they both dissopointed mightly.

Any RB can produce well in a small sample. You can't determine how a RB is going to fare over 300 carries until they actually get that load. Many fail. I'm not guaranteeing Lamont to fail, but he's too much of a risk to feel comfortable taking him in the 2nd/early 3rd round. I don't expect Lamont to fail like Zero and Hambrick, but he easily do so. Chances are he'll get no where close to living up to expectations.



As far as Hambrick and Zereoue, what did there respective teams have in the way of othe roffensive threats. I don't remember just asking. how did there WR/QB compare to Moss/Porter and Collins.

I don't think Jrdan will be worth a 1st round pick but will be a decent #2.

No stats or anything else to back up my feeling but if those strong defenses concentrate on the run they will be killed by the pass. sooner rather than later I think Jordan will see defenses that will pepare more for moss/porter than Jordan and the running game.
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Postby maddog60 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:19 pm

aussieboy wrote:The other main argument I hear against not only Jordan but other RBs that play on poor teams is the whole: "Their team's defense sux so they will be behind early and will have to abandon the run". Yeh, sure Preist Holmes has really suffered cos of the bad KC defense, oh and having LT all these years has really sucked. Simply put, if the RB is good enough the team will continue to run.


Neither one of those situations is comparable to Jordan's. In each of those situations the RB is the biggest weapon that the team has, and the team lacks a true #1 WR. In Jordan's case, the biggest threat on the team is Moss, not him.
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