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Sweet Home Carolina

Postby Bruschi » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:23 am

Sometimes rankings make me scratch my head.

I keep on seeing Jake Delhome rated as a top 10 QB. And I agree with that ranking.

But then I see Steve Smith ranked between 10-15 WR and K Colbert 30-45. I wonder how Delhomme is going to justify that ranking.

It especially makes me wonder with S Smith having the possibility of injury again this year.

Is Delhomme really a top 10 QB? Is S Smith going to stay healthy and be a top 10 receiver this year? If he gets hurt, will Colbert be this year's N Burleson? They don't really have a #3 WR.

I just wonder about Carolina. I'm not even going to touch their RB situation. Maybe they are cursed.
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Postby koffeeboy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:26 am

No one wants to rank Smith higher than they have until he proves he deserves it. He is coming off a serious injury.

Assuming he bounces back and Colbert continues to progress... Their RB trio of Foster, Davis and Shelton put up top 12 rushing...

Delhomme will be solid.

He has Freddie Jones and Mike Seidman at TE and one of the top 5 defenses on paper in the league.

Carolina just needs to stay healthy.
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Postby Bruschi » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:31 am

So Do you think F Jones will be good this year after a down year in ARI.

I guess you could compare Carolina to two other similiar teams, San Diego and BAL, all have solid D's, and both BAL and SD rely on a solid rushing attack. Will that mean that John Fox will grind the run again this year and Delhomme will be throwing ton his TE? I don't recall that CAR TE having an impact in the past few years.
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Re: Sweet Home Carolina

Postby Free Bagel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:32 am

Bruschi wrote:Sometimes rankings make me scratch my head.

I keep on seeing Jake Delhome rated as a top 10 QB. And I agree with that ranking.

But then I see Steve Smith ranked between 10-15 WR and K Colbert 30-45. I wonder how Delhomme is going to justify that ranking.


Why would he need higher ranked receivers to justify it? Favre put up top THREE numbers for years with out a legit top receiver, so I don't see why Delhomme couldn't put up simply top 10 numbers.

Just last year Plummer finished 5th in QB scoring with his top WR finishing 15th.

Trent Green finished 4th with his top WR finishing 17th.

Lastly, Brees finished 9th without a WR in the top 25.

Tom Brady also comes to mind as a guy that usually finishes top 10 without even so much as a top 20 WR.

So it certainly is not necessary to have a top 10 WR for a QB to finish top 10.
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Re: Sweet Home Carolina

Postby Guttpuppy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:35 am

Free Bagel wrote:Why would he need higher ranked receivers to justify it? Favre put up top THREE numbers for years with out a legit top receiver, so I don't see why Delhomme couldn't put up simply top 10 numbers.

Just last year Plummer finished 5th in QB scoring with his top WR finishing 15th.

Trent Green finished 4th with his top WR finishing 17th.

Lastly, Brees finished 9th without a WR in the top 25.

Tom Brady also comes to mind as a guy that usually finishes top 10 without even so much as a top 20 WR.

So it certainly is not necessary to have a top 10 WR for a QB to finish top 10.


Nice deduction. ;-D
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Postby Bruschi » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:03 am

All very good responses.

I just always try to make sense of rankings. For most top 10 QB's there is an outlet - Brady and Favre are good exceptions - but Manning has Harrison, McNabb has Owens, CPepp had Moss, now Burleson, T Green has Gonzalez, Bulger has Holt and Bruce...etc.

I just see a lack of receiving depth from Carolina unless Smith stays healthy and plays like a top 10 WR or Colbert breaks out.

Brady has lots of weapons, Favre has D Driver, B Franks and (hopefully) J. Walker.

The flip to this analysis also happens. Look at rankings for R Williams, C Rogers (though he is pretty low usually), M Pollard and M Williams. I think these guys will do alright, especially Pollard. But where am I going to rank Harrington. Probably not in my top 20 QB"s.

It just doesn't make sense!
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Postby moochman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:09 am

Sure Smith was hurt early last season, but don't forget that Mushie had 16 TDs. Add to that 5 from Colbert and you have 21 of 29 TDs accounted for. So he had outlets. Smith's injury was a freak one, soley due to direct contact. It's not as if he's injury prone, and reports are that he is back to full speed.

The main thing that could hold Delhomme back is the health of the running game. Two seasons ago Davis and Foster spearheaded a great run game. Delhomme passed for 19 TDs. Last year their running game was crippled by injuries and he tossed 29.

I'd look for his production to drop to somewhere inbetween. Good value for where he has been drafted.
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Postby koffeeboy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:12 am

Rankings do not always coincide with projections.

You shouldn't read too much into one or the other.

Just because Delhomme may be the 10th best ranked fantasy QB, doesn't mean he will finish there. He could be much better or worse.

It's just like guessing the standings. Most people never actually go game by game to actually see where team's will finish. That is why most of the predicated standings never mathmatically make sense.
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Re: Sweet Home Carolina

Postby skibrett15 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:29 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Bruschi wrote:Sometimes rankings make me scratch my head.

I keep on seeing Jake Delhome rated as a top 10 QB. And I agree with that ranking.

But then I see Steve Smith ranked between 10-15 WR and K Colbert 30-45. I wonder how Delhomme is going to justify that ranking.


Why would he need higher ranked receivers to justify it? Favre put up top THREE numbers for years with out a legit top receiver, so I don't see why Delhomme couldn't put up simply top 10 numbers.

Just last year Plummer finished 5th in QB scoring with his top WR finishing 15th.

Trent Green finished 4th with his top WR finishing 17th.

Lastly, Brees finished 9th without a WR in the top 25.

Tom Brady also comes to mind as a guy that usually finishes top 10 without even so much as a top 20 WR.

So it certainly is not necessary to have a top 10 WR for a QB to finish top 10.

Those are good examples. But I think the Carolina Situation is different than all of them. Trent Green finishes high with no receiver because of Tony Gonzalez. Brady spreads the ball around like no other. Brees has LT/Gates and also spreads it around for wrs. Plummer has lelie/rod smith but also throws to backs and TEs often for TDs. As of now... Delhomme has no spread around ability with only two wrs of note and has no existing TE threat at all. That is what separates him from last years examples.
I think foster is a nice pass catcher and Hoover is also good from the FB position. The only way that Delhomme could be top 10 and s. smith 10-15 and colbert 30-45 is if a legitimate receiving threat emerges from the TE or RB position.
Freddie jones could easily be that guy. Although I've never really seen any examples of where a TE drastically improves his numbers late in his career. Freddie never was an elite prospect, so he could improve, but probably not bust out. An improvement for Freddie would be a great improvement for CAR in TE so he could keep delhomme in the top 10 but still not be a draftable prospect.
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Postby Bruschi » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:34 pm

Wow skibrett15 - I should have you writing my posts for me - that is exactly what I was driving at. If Delhomme is going to throw for 3000+ yds and 20-25 TDs, who the heck is catching all that stuff?
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