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Staying away from Colts players

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Staying away from Colts players

Postby johnnie2130 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:24 pm

I'm no expert, but I've tried to stay away from drafting Colts players this year in mocks I've done. With Harrison, Wayne, Edge and Clark, all will get enough touches to keep them happy. Manning likes to spread the ball around. I just don't want one of my 1st or 2nd round choices getting me almost no points on several weekends and I think that will happen with these guys.

Out of all the ones I named, Clark would be the one I'd want to draft before the others, simply because I think he'll get some goal line TDs and will be better than other TE rated above him. I'm still staying away from him until the later rounds though.

I don't want to draft these guys unless there's just not much option left, and then I'm hesitant.
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Postby maddog60 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:29 pm

I can understand not touching Manning because he's going too high in almost every draft nowadays, but Marvin is usually being drafted 4th or 5th WR, which is great value for him in redrafts. Wayne is going at about the right spot too, but Stokley I think people are jumping on too high.
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Postby koffeeboy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:37 pm

The only reason to stay away from this bunch is if they are being taken too high to warrant their selections. That is it. If they are good value when you are selecting I wouldn't worry about the work load and not getting enough touches.
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Postby johnnie2130 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:24 pm

I guess in a way I was trying to also say that. I think Manning is going too high when you can get another QB in the 5-6 round that will put up decent numbers.

I personally don't like to draft Harrison in the 2nd, but he's usually gone by the 3rd.

I'm just not that high on Edge. I'd much rather take Duece over him.

Is Wayne considered a top WR? To me, I think he's a 4 round pick, 3rd at the earliest.
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Postby maddog60 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:38 pm

Wayne goes on average 3.11 in a 12 team draft. That seems about appropriate value for a guy with such a big upside.

True, I'd like to have Duece over Edge too, but after that there isn't anyone more safe of a choice. McGahee has upside, but is risky. DD, Dillon, Lewis, I'd rather have Edge over either of those 1st rounders (assuming we're not talking about a TD heavy league).
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Postby Goatwhacker » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:41 pm

I don't get this fear of drafting Edge that is showing up lately. I had him as my number 1 back on 2 teams last year and was very happy with him although some more TD's would have been nice. This was during a year that Manning was already throwing like a maniac, how could things get worse for Edge this year? He's clearly the #1 back over Rhodes, he's 27 years old and did not have significant injury issues last year.

I agree with being careful about drafting Manning and the receivers too high, there's certainly a good chance of that happening with all the hype last year.
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Postby Azrael » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:41 pm

Here's my take on the Indy guys.

Manning - just going way to high for me to consider picking even if he is the No. 1 fantasy scorer. The only way I would consider taking him where he is going is if my league was weighted heavy towards QB scoring or if I could win $xxx from Manning putting up a "high player" week or from being fantasy MVP.

Edge - very solid No. 1 back. He's still young at 27. Last year was the first year I think Edge was truly healthy. He had his most yardage rushing and receiving since he was hurt. I'd also expect him to score more than 9TDs this coming year. Atleast a repeat performance of last year is expected.

Harrison - good pick for later in the 2nd round. He has declined a bit the last couple years but he's scored atleast 10 TDs in each of the last 6 years.

Wayne - very leary of him being taken as a top 10 receiver. I honestly think 10TDs would be a maximum for him and I'd be scared of having a No. 2 NFL WR as my No. 1 fantasy WR. Even as well as he did last year, he completely disappeared for 1/3 of the season. Considering that I don't expect him to repeat last year, make that half the season. Good luck with having your No. 1 WR be absent from half your games.

Stokley - the first guy's stats to wither will be Stokley's since he's always atleast the 3rd option on passing plays, sometimes more depending on Manning's progression. Even starting 3WRs I'd rather try a guy who has potential to break out like a Branch or Calico.

Clark - You have to figure that Clark's stats will improve with Pollard gone. Maybe the best value of all as an 8th rounder or so...600-700 yards and 6 or 7 scores is possible.
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Postby Free Bagel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:08 pm

Goatwhacker wrote:how could things get worse for Edge this year?


How could things get worse? I think things could very easily get worse. Read on...

Free Bagel wrote:Edge is one of my picks for top 10 guys to drop out this year. Here's the reasoning.

People keep saying that Edge is going to get more goalline work this year, but when you actually look at the numbers, they suggest the opposite.

Edge had 23 carries inside the five yard line last year, that was 4th in the league.

In the first 5 weeks, Edge had 15 carries inside the five yard line, roughly 3.0 carries per game. Those 15 attempts were far and away first in the league, almost twice as many as the next closest person.

In those 15 carries, he averaged 0.27 ypc. Granted, you expect the ypc inside the 5 to be low, but 0.27ypc was good for 2nd to last out of the RBs with 5+ attempts (ahead of only Artose Pinner).

He scored 4 touchdowns on those 15 carries, a conversion .pct of under 30%. To put this number in perspective, in that time period the conversion pct of Warrick Dunn was over 50%. Edge's conversion pct. ranked 3rd to last among the 10 guys with the most carries, just ahead of Artose Pinner and Clinton Portis.

So, in the first 5 weeks he had far and away the most goalline carries, but didn't get the job done with those carries. The result?

In the final 11 games on the season Edge got only 8 goalline carries, converting 1 of them for a TD. That's roughly 0.72 goalline carries per game at this point.

A logical deduction would be the following: The Colts had a bevy of goalline opportunities throughout the season. Early on they gave many of those opportunities to Edge, allowing him 3.0 goalline carries per game which is far and away more than anyone else in the league. With those carries for whatever reason, his efficiency was waaay below average. From there on out, the Colts started throwing inside the 5, dropping Edge's goalline carries allllll the way down to .72 per game, with which he did no better efficiency wise than before.

People tend to, without any statistical backing, assume that Edge got less goalline carries because Manning was trying to break the record. The statistics show that it is more likely that Edge got less goalline carries because he just flat out wasn't doing well at the goalline.

Also keep this in mind. When Edge's goalline carries were basically cut off, it was only week 5. Manning wasn't threatening the record yet, nor was he on pace to break the record. He wasn't even leading the league in TDs. So, why did the Colts start throwing inside the 5 all of the sudden? Because running with Edge down there just wasn't getting the job done.

I think that Edge's goalline work this year will be more akin to the last 11 weeks of last season, not the first 5. Simply put, nothing has really changed in Indy for them to all the sudden start trying to pound the ball inside the 5 again, which clearly did not work for them.

To put last year into perspective:

Edge scored 5 TDs in 23 attempts from inside the five.
Manning threw 16 TDs in 24 attempts from inside the five.

So were they throwing inside the 5 to break the record for manning, or simply because it was just sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much more effective than running inside the 5?

Edge's average carries per game and efficiency taken from the last 11 weeks of last season (when Manning took over inside the 5) prorated out over a full season put him at around 10 goalline carries and between 1 and 2 goalline TDs on the year.

It's kind of like the chicken and the egg cliche really. Did Edge stop getting carries inside the 5 because Manning wanted to break the record, or did Manning start throwing inside the 5 because Edge just wasn't getting the job done?

The numbers clearly point to the latter.

By the end of this coming season, Edge owners are going to be begging for the mere 9 TDs he had last year.


My bold prediction: Edge finishes with even fewer rushing TDs this year than he had last year.
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Postby Kensat30 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:53 pm

Harrison is the Colt most likely to be drafted by me this year. Huge value at the end of the 2nd and beginning of the 3rd round...
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Postby Goatwhacker » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:49 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
My bold prediction: Edge finishes with even fewer rushing TDs this year than he had last year.


I see your logic although I'm not sure there aren't some more variables involved, but is that enough to stay away from Edge as in the original post? People are talking like he's this huge risk.
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