Staying away from Colts players

[lmcjaho]

I see your logic although I'm not sure there aren't some more variables involved, but is that enough to stay away from Edge as in the original post? People are talking like he's this huge risk.

Considering where he's being drafted lately (rated 3rd RB in the Cafe rankings - mocks put him in top 7) I would have to say he's a HUGE risk pick if Bagel is on with his logic...

Now, whether or not that logic bears fruit when the guy is looking to play his way into a fat contract somewhere is anybody's guess - but a guess for a 1st rounder is not what I want to deal with...

[Always a winner]

My bold prediction: Edge finishes with even fewer rushing TDs this year than he had last year.

Sheesh, I didn't know it was that bad. I'd still take Edge in the 1st round, but I'm dropping him a few spots in my rankings.

[Kensat30]

Edge could score 5 TDs and still be a top10 RB. Seriously, the guy averages like 12 points a game on yardage alone.

If Edge has 9 TDs again like last year, he's the #6 or #7 RB by year's end. If he falls to 5 TDs he's right around #9/#10. If he scores more than 9 TD he's in the top5. Probably the 3rd most consistent RB behind LT and SA in the first round. It's all about who you are going to bump up to put ahead of him.... Personally I'm only willing to do that with one questionable guy and that's because of the immense potential (Deuce Mcallister #4, Edge #5).
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I put Priest ahead of him as well, but I don't consider him questionable at all. He's one of the most sure thing RBs out there IMO.

[Juhlz]

My bold prediction: Edge finishes with even fewer rushing TDs this year than he had last year.

Sheesh, I didn't know it was that bad. I'd still take Edge in the 1st round, but I'm dropping him a few spots in my rankings.

It's NOT that bad for Edge. Change the words "bold prediction" to the words "downright silly prediction". Edge has not even reached his ceiling yet. You talk like he is 32 years old or something. You can crunch numbers all you want but the reality is that criteria change so much from year to year. Look at where Edge was drafted last season as compared to his production-late first to early second was a steal.

Here's my realistic prediction: 1900 total yards 12 td's, 8 rushing, 4 receiving. Top 5 back.

[Plindsey88]

Harrison has good value where he is going (end of 2nd / early 3rd)....

Edge is good for 100+ total yards each and every week, no questions asked.... There was not a single game last year (excluding week 17, where he did not play) that Edge did not gain more than 100 total yards OR score a TD.... Not one.... Shaun Alexander had 4 games in which he failed to reach the century mark and didn't score a TD.... And Tomlinson had 1 game where he failed to meet both benchmarks....

[Mercer Boy]

It's all about consistency, and Edge has it. Yardage is key for consistent scoring. Edge gets a ton of yards a game, so as long as he is not injured, he'll get your team 8 - 12 points each and every week on yardage alone. That's better than having to depend on a guy to get a TD each week to get him to 12 points. Any TD's he scores is a bonus (since they are luck anyway ). He's got to be one of the top RB's this year barring injury.

I would take Harrison. He's good for 4 digit yards and double digit TD's every year. Wayne and Stokley have the biggest chances of decline, mainly because someone is going to lose a decent amount of TD catches if Manning doesn't go for 45.

Clark is interesting. He could be huge next year because Manning likes to look for the TE. It might take a high pick, but it could be worth it. Think about it: between Pollard and Clark last year, there were 700+ yards and 11 TD's!

Say Manning goes for 35 TD's (high end for me). If Harrison gets 12, Wayne gets 8, Stokley gets 8, and Clark gets 7, that would still be pretty good. Probably not #1 numbers for Wayne, but decent numbers for Stokley and great for Clark.

At 30 TD's, Harrison probably gets 12, Wayne gets 7, Stokley gets 6, and Clark gets 5. That puts them back where they were before last year. That's the scary part about the Colts this year. If they regress to "normal," they won't be worth what you pay for them. But, the offense is better than 2 years ago and teams will still have problems with their ability. I just don't expect teams to lay down to them like they did last year and give up 3 TD's a game in the air every time.