Deuce was a bust last season because he had a string of poor games and an injury early in the season. Bad owner sentiment is pushing his value down, because in fantasy football 3 bad weeks = 1 bad season, and 1 bad season > 2 good season.
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If you ignore bad owner sentiment, Deuce proved some doubters wrong in 2004. Seriously I think 2005 is the year he finally puts it all together and is a top5 RB... Think of it this way, McAllister was borderline elite in both 2002 and 2003. In 2002 he had high TD totals and his total yardage lagged behind. In 2003 owners were dissappointed as Deuce was a yardage monster and his TD totals seemed surprisingly low.
Fast forward to 2005, and Deuce proves that his 2003 TD totals were a fluke as he goes on to score more TDs in basically 4 less games. Deuce missed 2 games entirely due to injury, and had another 2 games where he basically scored 0 points and had like 5 carries in each game, and yet he still managed to average 12+ points per game. Take out the games where he had less than 10 carries (injuries, flukes that you can't expect to be repeated in 2005) and you're at 15 points per game. Deuce averages 15 points per game and he's the #5 RB next year...
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Look for Deuce's touches to go way up this year. 2004 was the first time in his career Deuce had ever played in a game and got less than 14 touches, and he did that twice. Due to a high ankle sprain he totalled 3 touches against fantasy doormat SF in week 2. Carolina also held him to 8 touches in a game later in the year. So you're looking at two games in which he totalled less touches than he previously had in a SINGLE game. To put those two games into context, Deuce had only 3 games in both 2002 and 2003 combined in which he had less than TWENTY touches.
2004 also marked the first time he had to sit out multiple games due to injury(high ankle sprain). Out of 48 possible games as the starter, Deuce has missed 3 games.
Those type of anomalys won't be repeated next year as Deuce returns to his standard 25+ touches per game. When you look at his point totals on a per touch basis, 2004 was remarkably similar to 2003... The main difference was that Deuce was playing on a high ankle sprain and was considerably less effective in multiple starts, but managed to keep a high point per touch ratio due to a return to form in his TD totals.
This year his OC has continually stated that Deuce is going to be the centerpiece of the offense and that the ground game will be the focal point this year. This should further emphasize that high amount of touches Deuce should receive.
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Now imagine that Deuce is healthy for most of next year and puts up his standard 25 touches per game for 16 games. I consider this a relatively safe projection because in actuality he could easily surpass 25 touches per game (see 2003)... Consider his baseline to be 400 touches. Just look at his past history if you think this is a high standard to set. Deuce has had two seasons out of three with 325+ carries and 45+ receptions. Even when limited to basically 13 games work last year, Deuce managed 269 carries and 34 receptions, average that out to a full season and you get 331 carries and 42 catches. Relatively SAFE to say that Deuce is going to amass somewhere between 370-420 touches in 2005.
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Even if he repeats his "bust-like" 2004 campaign where he averages .57 fantasy points per touch, he scores 230 FPs on the season and is a top10 RB (400 x .57). If he goes on to match his 2002 success you get 284 FP and he is a top3 RB (400 x .71).
This is not the end of the story though, say Deuce is able to replicate his incredibly high touch totals in 2004.... And Deuce is able to repeat his 2002 performance in points... It's not that inconceivable to see his high of .71 points per touch to go up or his high touch totals of 420 to go up...You're looking at a ceiling of 420+ touches at .71+ per touch. Conceivably his totals could go well up into the 300 point range (425 x .75 = 319 FP). Shaun Alexander the #1 RB from 2004 had 300.6 total fantasy points....
My projections for Deuce:
340/1550/10, 55/400/2, 267 FP
24.9 touches/game, .68 FP/touch
Middle of the road in both averages and fantasy points per touch compared to his career totals. Realistic projections that put McAllister in the top5 range and a steal at the bottom of the first round.
Is anyone else concerned with the fact that the Saints play 7 out of first 9 games on turf then go to NE and NYJets.
Does this cause concern for injuries or hype for points?
I'm still in the group that puts him top 5-7, but he still has to prove to me that he deserves to be there. To me there are still ?'s
(Haslett, Injury) involving McAllister but no more then James, McGahee, Portis, Holms, and Davis.
My Opinion is that he is ranked about 5th or 6th, which is about accurate based on potential.
Keepers League: P Manning, J Flacco LT2, C Portis, T Hightower, S Greene, D Brown M Colston, Q, D Jax, MSW, B Tate, M Wallace, J Carlson, D Keller N Keding Chi
I think perhaps one of the biggest reasons Duece's ranking get debating is scoring systems. I meam I have him ranked #4 and Edge #5, but if we're talking about a standard Yahoo League with TD heavy scoring (only 1 pt per 20 yards rushing/receiving) rankings changed. Personally I feel that 100 yard performances should be rewarded more than a single TD, which is why I tend to avoid TD heavy leagues, and subsequently rank my RBs based on 1 point per 10 yards scoring.
Now if when drafting for TD heavy leagues I would easily put Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon and even McGahee above Duece and Edge.
nebula wrote:Is anyone else concerned with the fact that the Saints play 7 out of first 9 games on turf then go to NE and NYJets.
Does this cause concern for injuries or hype for points?
The only "real" turf left in the NFL is in Indy. They still have concrete covered astroturf, while everyone has the cushy field turf which I believe covers a rubbery substance (much softer than concrete). Considering Deuce has missed 3 games out of the past 48, he's not really more of an injury risk than anyone else.
I'm still in the group that puts him top 5-7, but he still has to prove to me that he deserves to be there. To me there are still ?'s (Haslett, Injury) involving McAllister but no more then James, McGahee, Portis, Holms, and Davis.
My Opinion is that he is ranked about 5th or 6th, which is about accurate based on potential.
What other RBs have less question marks than Deuce? He's one of the few RBs in the NFL that you know is going to have an extremely high touch total due to his pass catching ability/established workhorse status....
Ripcord, I just wanted to let you know I agree with you that Deuce will have a good year and that if you want to move him into the top-5, McGahee is the best choice to move down in your rankings. Good analysis and nice article.
maddog60 wrote:I think perhaps one of the biggest reasons Duece's ranking get debating is scoring systems. I meam I have him ranked #4 and Edge #5, but if we're talking about a standard Yahoo League with TD heavy scoring (only 1 pt per 20 yards rushing/receiving) rankings changed. Personally I feel that 100 yard performances should be rewarded more than a single TD, which is why I tend to avoid TD heavy leagues, and subsequently rank my RBs based on 1 point per 10 yards scoring.
Now if when drafting for TD heavy leagues I would easily put Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon and even McGahee above Duece and Edge.
Absolutely right Maddog. I think this goes on more than people realize. Even though 1-10yds, TD-6 pts are pretty much the "norm", there seems to be a lot of Yahoo people here too. And TD heavy scoring seems to be around quite a bit even outside of Yahoo. And this is even without mentioning "points for receptions......"
For the past coupla months I have been ranking Deuce behind Lewis, but after reading the RB Love article in this forum and seeing how Lewis tends to "fall off" a little down the stretch(during the FF playoffs) I'm reconsidering that, even though I do think he is in a good situation to perform very well this year.
I think some peoples problem with Deuce was how he was hyped by the FF rags last year as a #2 or #3 pick and then didn't perform that well at all. I was considering him, Green and Portis with my 3rd overall pick but thankfully ended up going with SA. But the reasons for his performance last year have been clearly indicated and with the improved O-line and new game plan I expect Deuce to have a very good year and am now almost surely gonna move him ahead of Lewis in my rankings.
Keep 'em comin Rip.
If You're Not Livin On The Edge, You're Takin Up Too Much Space
What about something I read mid-season last year about problems between Deuce and the head coach? I heard more than one negative comment from various people.
I know it made me think twice about just how motivated he might be, or how he fit with the rest of the team.
Not dissing Deuce, just asking how the overall picture looks with him and the team.
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by Supernick » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:28 am 
