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Will Brees repeat?

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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:34 am

I have a feeling Brees improves in the yardage department but takes a step back in TD/INT ratio.

Last year he was one of the most efficient QBs in the league and he had a long stretch of games where he wasn't throwing any INTs at all. Gotta look at the INTs like a fluke, CBs dropping INTs, not forced into tough passing situations, that sort of thing that can really chance season to season. No QB can consistently go long periods of time without an INT.

And Look at his overall passing stats, he really didn't attempt that many passes last season and he had low yardage totals as a result. I expect Brees to be passing a lot more this year, and subsequently his interceptions should easily reach double digits, probably up into the teens.

Regarding the TDs, I have reservation about those improving as well. Gates broke the record for TE touchdowns and I consider that stat extremely doubtful to repeat in 2005. Instead I see Brees shifting more of the passing game to the WRs as McCardell has a full year in the offense and Parker/Caldwell combine for a solid #2 WRBC. Gates is still a very good TE, but nowhere near the game-breaker he was in 2004.

Also, Brees had a stretch last year where he threw something like 10 TDs in two games... against very poor opponents. Now I'm not saying that Brees won't face bad teams again in 2005, but what are the chances he has two games like that? That's like expecting Drew Bennett to repeat his 200 yard/3 TD games, it's just not gonna happen. Instead I see a more 2 TD games and less of the 1 TD efforts, without the huge gamebreakers.

Ultimately, I think the Chargers take a small step backwards as a team and probably don't win the division this year. This contributes to their throwing the ball significantly more. Still they are going to score a lot of points and amass a lot of yards in the AFC West, but Brees is not going to be quite so efficient.

End result: Brees is a borderline starter in a 12-team league.

Brees - 315/500/3700/25/16

McCardell - 65/800/5
Parker - 45/700/4
Caldwell - 40/500/5
Other - 15/200/1

Gates - 80/900/8
Other - 5/50/0

Tomlinson - 60/500/2
Other - 10/50/0
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Postby Crafty » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:56 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:The KC/Oak defensive upgrades are scary for sure.

While KC might vault up to "average", I think the main problem with the defense is the DC, not the talent on the field, and that problem has not been addressed. Surtain won't be much use against the Chargers, who don't really have a number one. The other side will always be weak, Gates will always be open, and LT will punish them worse than ever this year.

But the main reason I'm posting is that I've never seen the term, "Oak defensive upgrades" this year. It's basically the worst defense in the league. How have they upgraded?
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Postby davidmarver » Wed Jul 20, 2005 5:17 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:The KC/Oak defensive upgrades are scary for sure.

Still, Brees will probably throw a decent amount of passes to LT, and for the most part, they are safe. Throws to the TE are moderately safe, also.

Brees and Green have similar situations. They should only use the WR's when they have to because they have nice options elsewhere. Brees could have a very nice year...especially if their pass defense doesn't get better. They could be throwing as much as KC has done.

And at the same time, could KC's new pass defenders make their pass attack less useful? Maybe they can pound it out in the 3rd/4th quarters and not be forced to air it out all day??? :-o

KC may have upgraded, but Brees only played them once last season, meaning his overall numbers will probably increase this season.
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