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Postby Free Bagel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:45 pm

I think we're arguing different things here. I don't think the point of the thread was whether or not Foster was worth a 5th round pick. The issue was Shelton as a 10th, to which you said why bother. I was giving some reasons as to why to bother (Foster can't stay on the field) and demonstrating that Foster had plenty of risk associated with him as well.

While we're at it though, I would like to bring up a study that I saw someone do a while ago about RBs that didn't come out of the gates great, and it showed that in the last 15 or 20 years or something if a RB hadn't rushed for 1000 yards by the end of his 3rd season he had a very slim chance of doing it. If I recall correctly, only two guys have done it. Those two guys were Tyrone Wheatley and Amos Zerouoeueoueoueoeuoeeoue, each of which barely cracked 1000 yards once.

History is certainly not on his side.

And really, even when Foster's been healthy, what has he done outside of one 70 yard run against the porous KC run defense and a pretty looking TD run in the playoffs against Philly?
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Postby cardiac cats » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:23 pm

dude, that was one of the sickest runs I've ever seen. and on top of the 70yd td run he had like 160 yds and (maybe) 2 tds that game. He was looking pretty good before he broke his collarbone if you ask me. ;-D
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:30 pm

cardiac cats wrote:dude, that was one of the sickest runs I've ever seen. and on top of the 70yd td run he had like 160 yds and (maybe) 2 tds that game. He was looking pretty good before he broke his collarbone if you ask me. ;-D


He had 170 rush yards total and 1 TD in the game, so outside of the long run he had 100 yards. For comparison, Quentin Friggin Griffin went for 150 and 3 TDs against that D.

In Foster's other starts last year he went 19-51 (2.7ypc) and 0 TDs, and 5-18 (in the game he got injured).

Foster's other starts were 16-85 and 0 TDs against Indy, 22-56 (2.5 ypc) and 0 TDs against Tampa, and 21-76 (3.6ypc) and a receiving TD against Detroit.

So in total, he played KC, Atlanta, Indy, Detroit, and Tampa, plenty of weak defenses in those games. Yet his numbers were still unimpressive in all but one game against the horrible KC D largely due to one long run.

His career ypc is 4.0 in a mostly backup role, and we all know that players generally see their ypc go down in a feature role in comparison to in a backup role. No one expects Jesse Chatman to go for 6 ypc as a starter, just like Wheatley and Zeroeueuueue couldn't maintain their 5.2ypc averages as a starter. Foster's ypc is already way lower than most backups, and he has averaged more than 4.0 ypc in only 2 of his 5 starts, and more than 3.0 ypc in only 3 of his 5 starts (both of these not counting the game he got hurt in where he averaged 3.6ypc on 5 attempts).
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Postby Pete123444 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:51 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
cardiac cats wrote:dude, that was one of the sickest runs I've ever seen. and on top of the 70yd td run he had like 160 yds and (maybe) 2 tds that game. He was looking pretty good before he broke his collarbone if you ask me. ;-D


He had 170 rush yards total and 1 TD in the game, so outside of the long run he had 100 yards. For comparison, Quentin Friggin Griffin went for 150 and 3 TDs against that D.

In Foster's other starts last year he went 19-51 (2.7ypc) and 0 TDs, and 5-18 (in the game he got injured).

Foster's other starts were 16-85 and 0 TDs against Indy, 22-56 (2.5 ypc) and 0 TDs against Tampa, and 21-76 (3.6ypc) and a receiving TD against Detroit.

So in total, he played KC, Atlanta, Indy, Detroit, and Tampa, plenty of weak defenses in those games. Yet his numbers were still unimpressive in all but one game against the horrible KC D largely due to one long run.

His career ypc is 4.0 in a mostly backup role, and we all know that players generally see their ypc go down in a feature role in comparison to in a backup role. No one expects Jesse Chatman to go for 6 ypc as a starter, just like Wheatley and Zeroeueuueue couldn't maintain their 5.2ypc averages as a starter. Foster's ypc is already way lower than most backups, and he has averaged more than 4.0 ypc in only 2 of his 5 starts, and more than 3.0 ypc in only 3 of his 5 starts (both of these not counting the game he got hurt in where he averaged 3.6ypc on 5 attempts).


Why is it everyone thinks KC run defense was so bad?? They ranked 12th last year. Only 4 guys ran for over 100 against them. Qtip,Foster,McAllister, and Pittman. Foster had the most with 174.DDavis had 12,JLewis ahd 73,Taylor 66,Dunn and Duckett combined for 57,Edge 34,Dillon 98,LTomlinson 46,Zereoue(lol)15,C Brown 98,T Bell 50Fargas 38,And Turner 87.

So Foster basically had double the yardage over guys like Tomlinson,JLewis,Edge,DDavis. Aren't those guys top 10 backs?
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:15 pm

Pete123444 wrote:Why is it everyone thinks KC run defense was so bad?? They ranked 12th last year. Only 4 guys ran for over 100 against them. Qtip,Foster,McAllister, and Pittman. Foster had the most with 174.DDavis had 12,JLewis ahd 73,Taylor 66,Dunn and Duckett combined for 57,Edge 34,Dillon 98,LTomlinson 46,Zereoue(lol)15,C Brown 98,T Bell 50Fargas 38,And Turner 87.

So Foster basically had double the yardage over guys like Tomlinson,JLewis,Edge,DDavis. Aren't those guys top 10 backs?


Well it was certainly nice of you to leave out half the important statistics. You can't just look at total yards behind the feature back. Half of KC's rush D stats is their porous pass D. Teams didn't have to run, but in most cases when they wanted to they certainly could.

Just pulling out a couple of those guys you mentioned, Brown went 15-91 (6.1 ypc) and a TD before getting hurt. Bell was splitting carries and went 9-50 (5.6ypc), Dillon added 2 TDs to his 100 yards, Turner went 15-87 (5.8ypc), you get the point.

Even with his 70 yard run, Foster still had a lower ypc than those guys above, what the heck was he doing on the rest of his carries?
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Postby Pete123444 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:36 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Pete123444 wrote:Why is it everyone thinks KC run defense was so bad?? They ranked 12th last year. Only 4 guys ran for over 100 against them. Qtip,Foster,McAllister, and Pittman. Foster had the most with 174.DDavis had 12,JLewis ahd 73,Taylor 66,Dunn and Duckett combined for 57,Edge 34,Dillon 98,LTomlinson 46,Zereoue(lol)15,C Brown 98,T Bell 50Fargas 38,And Turner 87.

So Foster basically had double the yardage over guys like Tomlinson,JLewis,Edge,DDavis. Aren't those guys top 10 backs?


Well it was certainly nice of you to leave out half the important statistics. You can't just look at total yards behind the feature back. Half of KC's rush D stats is their porous pass D. Teams didn't have to run, but in most cases when they wanted to they certainly could.

Just pulling out a couple of those guys you mentioned, Brown went 15-91 (6.1 ypc) and a TD before getting hurt. Bell was splitting carries and went 9-50 (5.6ypc), Dillon added 2 TDs to his 100 yards, Turner went 15-87 (5.8ypc), you get the point.

Even with his 70 yard run, Foster still had a lower ypc than those guys above, what the heck was he doing on the rest of his carries?


I included every game. I didnt just pull up a stat like ypc and mention a few guys. Or like earlier mention one guys total yards against KC. You were first to mention qtips total yards. So i just took that (total yards) and included EVERY GAME's top rushers. Don't go jumpin on me about puttin up partial stats.
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Postby mtryanks12 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:50 pm

Pete123444 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
Pete123444 wrote:Why is it everyone thinks KC run defense was so bad?? They ranked 12th last year. Only 4 guys ran for over 100 against them. Qtip,Foster,McAllister, and Pittman. Foster had the most with 174.DDavis had 12,JLewis ahd 73,Taylor 66,Dunn and Duckett combined for 57,Edge 34,Dillon 98,LTomlinson 46,Zereoue(lol)15,C Brown 98,T Bell 50Fargas 38,And Turner 87.

So Foster basically had double the yardage over guys like Tomlinson,JLewis,Edge,DDavis. Aren't those guys top 10 backs?


Well it was certainly nice of you to leave out half the important statistics. You can't just look at total yards behind the feature back. Half of KC's rush D stats is their porous pass D. Teams didn't have to run, but in most cases when they wanted to they certainly could.

Just pulling out a couple of those guys you mentioned, Brown went 15-91 (6.1 ypc) and a TD before getting hurt. Bell was splitting carries and went 9-50 (5.6ypc), Dillon added 2 TDs to his 100 yards, Turner went 15-87 (5.8ypc), you get the point.

Even with his 70 yard run, Foster still had a lower ypc than those guys above, what the heck was he doing on the rest of his carries?


I included every game. I didnt just pull up a stat like ypc and mention a few guys. Or like earlier mention one guys total yards against KC. You were first to mention qtips total yards. So i just took that (total yards) and included EVERY GAME's top rushers. Don't go jumpin on me about puttin up partial stats.


well, I agree with FB here. You made your point, but you were covering up the other parts that show that they're not as good as you tried to make them seem. The reason for the great run D was partly because of the fact that their pass D was so terrible, there was not much of a need to run.

KC had the 12th best rushing D last season, allowing 1834 yards on the ground. 397 rushes were attempted, the fourth least in the NFL, for a YPC of 4.6, tied for the 2nd worst in the NFL. The only team with a worse opposing YPC was Arizona.

To compare this with their passing D, they were passed on 522 times, 22nd highest in the NFL. 312 of those passes were completed, giving their opponents a completion average of 59.8%, 15th in the NFL. Those completions led to 4203 yards, the worst in the NFL.

KC had an opposing pass/rush rate of 522/397, showing that the other teams took advantage of their terrible passing D. If they had a good pass D last season, who knows what could have happened. :-o

I support FB's argument here. ;-D
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Postby Pete123444 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:59 pm

KC had the leagues worst pass d last year. I agree with that part of his arguement that part of the reason they run d was 12th was due to that. plus the fact that they went ahead in games. But neither arguement says that foster is a bad rb because he ran for 174 yards against KC when tomlinson gets 46? edge 34?DDavis 12 yards?? btw Tomlinson only ran for 2.19 ypc against em. 'Splain that?
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:06 pm

Personally I think ypc allowed s a much more accurate measure of the defense than total yards allowed are, to which (as mtryanks pointed out) KC was 2nd to last.

Foster isn't a bad RB because he ran for 174 against KC, he's not necessarily a bad RB at all. My point was simply that he's been in the league 3 years, and has all of one good game, and it came against one of the worst rush D's out there. Heck, even beyond the 70 yarder in that game he averaged around 3.3ypc the rest of the game.

My main point is that people seem to be under the (false) impression that when Foster has been healthy and starting he's been a monster, and that just isn't true. Really, in 3 years he's had two good runs and a whole lotta nothin else.

As for the "Fragile Fred" thing, well personally I think we should rename that to "Fragile Foster." Even "Fragile Fred" was never hurt with the consistency that Foster has been. In 3 years Foster has already missed basically as many (if not more) games than Taylor has in his entire 7 year career. Not to mention Foster's injury concerns date all the way back to his college days (which Taylor's did not).
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Postby mtryanks12 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:13 pm

Pete123444 wrote:KC had the leagues worst pass d last year. I agree with that part of his arguement that part of the reason they run d was 12th was due to that. plus the fact that they went ahead in games. But neither arguement says that foster is a bad rb because he ran for 174 yards against KC when tomlinson gets 46? edge 34?DDavis 12 yards?? btw Tomlinson only ran for 2.19 ypc against em. 'Splain that?


Yeah, if their D was good it means that they didn't allow many yards, but if there were not many attempts against it, they can still have a high YPC against them.

When LT played against them this year, he did have a low YPC and very few yards, which can somewhat prove your point since their run D was terrible, but he did score 2 TD's. ALSO, last year he played them twice and he combined for a 4.375 YPC for 140 yards on 32 attempts. When he played them twice in 2002 he combined for 199 yards on 44 attempts, a YPC of 4.52. Not too shabby. In 2001 he went for 176 yards on 40 carries for a YPC of 4.4. His YPC in 2001 was 3.6.

On another note, from 01-04, his second game against KC was either in very late november (11/30) or in late december (Christmas week). In those games he ran for 106, 131, and 145 yards with YPC's of 5.6, 5.5, and 5.4. In his first game against KC those years (01-04) he ran for 34, 78, and 31 yards with YPC's of 2.6, 3.9, and 2.4. Could the time period in which he played KC have an effect on this?? Possibly. He sat out the second game versus KC this year, but he did terrible in the first game.

:-°
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