Doesn't matter if you have 10 or 10000 posts; everyone has an opinion.
I'm still in the "no chance in heck Manning goes over 40 TD's" camp, which is going to be imperative in Manning being worth a top pick. All QB's score well, and since only 10-12 start, the point differences just aren't high enough to lose out on the top RB's unless you pick near the end of the 1st round. At that point, there is value in the pick as you can get a "decent" RB quickly on the way back around. Still, you're hoping that Manning blows all other QB's out of the water.
I've drafted mid/low level QB's in my entire fantasy life, and I've definitely won more games than I've lost.