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Postby MadScott » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:30 am

Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Yes, 5th round is a decent place to risk it, and provides good
value for a starting RB. But there are other starting RBs with
less risk going in the same area (Barlow, Dunn, Staley), and it is
my feeling that Foster's upside is much lower than people tend to
think, questioning whether or not all that added risk is really
worth it.


I'll grab Dunn in the 4th, Foster in the 5th, and Barlow in the 6th and see what happens. Meanwhile Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison will be manning my WR1 and WR2 spots respectively.


A bit off topic, but I've seen a lot of people talk about this, but has anyone actually tried it? I'd be interested to see the results but despite the fact that I usually pick a lot of risky players, have never had the jewels to forgo RB drafting until round 4 or later. Have you ever actually done this and did it work out? Just wondering.


http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... .php?f=138

Kensat talked me off a ledge in this league. :-b Granted it was an 8 teamer, but I didn't go #2 RB until the 5th rd. I did grab F. Taylor, Henry and Ricky later on to fill the stockpile.
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Postby Sixxgunn » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:08 am

I can see one recurring theme in most of these RB threads, and that is the focus on YPC. Sure, as a head coach that means tons to you, but as a FF player, I couldn't care less about the color of Osama Bin Laden's walls in his spider hole. I mean really, why does anyone care if it took your guy 15 carries or 35 carries, as long as he gets you that 100 yds and a TD? Quitter Ricky was the king of crap when it came to YPC, yet people were drafting him as high as 3 in some leagues.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:23 am

Sixxgunn wrote:I can see one recurring theme in most of these RB threads, and that is the focus on YPC. Sure, as a head coach that means tons to you, but as a FF player, I couldn't care less about the color of Osama Bin Laden's walls in his spider hole. I mean really, why does anyone care if it took your guy 15 carries or 35 carries, as long as he gets you that 100 yds and a TD? Quitter Ricky was the king of crap when it came to YPC, yet people were drafting him as high as 3 in some leagues.


Did you miss 2002? Ricky Williams#2 overall RB that year led by his 1800+ yards rushing. I don't think you can reach those levels with a poor ypc average... Nopehad 4.8 that year... Which in itself is a very high % but on 383 carries? That's pretty special right there.
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Postby Sixxgunn » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:37 am

Kensat30 wrote:
Sixxgunn wrote:I can see one recurring theme in most of these RB threads, and that is the focus on YPC. Sure, as a head coach that means tons to you, but as a FF player, I couldn't care less about the color of Osama Bin Laden's walls in his spider hole. I mean really, why does anyone care if it took your guy 15 carries or 35 carries, as long as he gets you that 100 yds and a TD? Quitter Ricky was the king of crap when it came to YPC, yet people were drafting him as high as 3 in some leagues.


Did you miss 2002? Ricky Williams#2 overall RB that year led by his 1800+ yards rushing. I don't think you can reach those levels with a poor ypc average... Nopehad 4.8 that year... Which in itself is a very high % but on 383 carries? That's pretty special right there.


Apparently you missed the point. Go ahead and take his best year by nearly 500 yds and try to prove your point. His career YPC is 4. Not stellar, but not bad. 2 seasons of 3.5, 2 at 4.0, and one at 4.8...which just happens to make his career ypc a bit inflated. His last season? 3.5 ypc---not too hot. But he got to approximately 1300 yds, and that was my point. Now what was that you were saying? Don't focus on my choice of examples, focus on the point.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:50 am

Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Yes, 5th round is a decent place to risk it, and provides good
value for a starting RB. But there are other starting RBs with
less risk going in the same area (Barlow, Dunn, Staley), and it is
my feeling that Foster's upside is much lower than people tend to
think, questioning whether or not all that added risk is really
worth it.


I'll grab Dunn in the 4th, Foster in the 5th, and Barlow in the 6th and see what happens. Meanwhile Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison will be manning my WR1 and WR2 spots respectively.


A bit off topic, but I've seen a lot of people talk about this, but has anyone actually tried it? I'd be interested to see the results but despite the fact that I usually pick a lot of risky players, have never had the jewels to forgo RB drafting until round 4 or later. Have you ever actually done this and did it work out? Just wondering.


It has really only emerged recently for me with the "emergence" of a "2nd-tier of stud WRs" .. Before it was just Moss, Harrison, and Owens every year. Usually 2 of the 3 went in the first or early 2nd, while the odd man out you MIGHT have been able to get late 2nd. It didn't make sense to take another WR in the 3rd round because nothing was guaranteed there.

Now you can add Torry Holt and Chad Johnson to the list of "2nd tier studs" because of their high yardage and touchdown consistency of the last several seasons. Joe Horn also should be right there. They provide solid value in taking a 3rd round WR IMO.

I view all of these players as virtual locks for top10 WR, and we all know how volatile the RBs can be. I'm looking back through drafts last year..the 2nd round and even 1st round RB results are not pretty. I've seen lists of 5th round draft picks at ANY position that busted last year, but just look at the RBs in the first 2 rounds. I know I ended up with more than 1 of these guys on my teams...

2nd round picks: Barlow, Faulk, Henry, S.Davis, M.Bennett, Griffin, etc. were all worthless last year

1st round picks: Ahman, Portis, Deuce, F.Taylor, Holmes, Ricky, and Jamal didn't live up to expectations

---
Yet we see that Moss, Harrison, and Owens were all the same constant performers and Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, and Joe Horn continued to perform at a high level. Hines Ward didn't, but that is basically 6/7 that were able to live up to their draft position, versus a much lower percentage for the early RBs.
---

I regularily see the last "sure-thing" WR this year falling to the late 2nd and early 3rd rounds (Marvin Harrison), while Torry Holt and Chad Johnson are going in that same range just like last year.

It really makes sense to go with 1st round RB "add two high percentage WRs" and then just load up on other RBs later in the draft. That way you have a good chance of solid WRs (instead of taking a much lower percentage gamble in the 4th or 5th there) and then take your risk on RBs later. There is a whole range of starting RBs going in the 4th-7th rounds (possibly even into the 8th+ depending on leagues) due to question marks. These RBs all would have gone much earlier the year before.

Warrick Dunn: always underrated, always a #2 RB..

Rookie RBs X 4: you can take a shot that one could become the 2nd half version of Kevin Jones or Julius at some point in the year. Better yet one of them is a breakout performer.

Keven Barlow: heavily underrated due to his poor year.

Fred Taylor: potential steal of the draft due to injury concerns

Deshaun Foster, Michael Bennett, Lee Suggs, Duce Staley: all heavily underrated due to prior injury history.




If you can snag 3, or even 4 of these type of guys on your team wouldn't your percentage of a hit be much higher than just going with 2 first round RBs? You're drafting an additional 1 or 2 RBs and instead of trying to pick who the 4th round breakout WR is going to be, you pick who the productive RB#2 is going to be.

Not only do you get a decent chance to land a just as good RB than you would have gotten in the 2nd or 3rd round, your tendency to draft extra RBs to cover your weak spot is probably going to give you some of the best depth in the league at that position. Oh yeah did I mention that you have 2 "high-percentage WRs" and possibly a stud TE as well by this point in the draft? Don't forget that first round RB you picked up...
----

Looking at the WRs going in the 5th, 4th, and even 3rd rounds every year we see a TON of variability every single year. Why go with a low percentage RB in the 2nd round and 3rd round, low percentage WRs in the 4th and 5th? Why not gamble on the sure-things WRs early and then draft RB heavy later. There are so many starting RBs available in the early middle rounds it's freaking ridiculous. Even if you draft sees 25+ RBs go in the first 3 rounds, I can virtually guarantee you that you will be able to get at least 1 starter and 1 rookie RB in the 4th-6th rounds. Draft handcuffs or other sleeper RBs later and your RB position can be very solid.
---

Everyone is scared to be left out in the cold with RBs. That is what makes this strategy work IMO. We form such a bias against certain RBs that they are huge value come draft day... Deshaun Foster and Michael Bennett several owners will not touch on draft day. Yet Michael Bennett was once a pro-bowl player, and Deshaun Foster used to go in the 7th round when he was a BACKUP RB... Remember how Barlow was a top10 RB? He's still a featured RB people. Fred Taylor has improved enough that Jacksonville didn't want to pony up a draft pick for Henry.. IF and NFL franchise is willing to gamble their season like that, I think the gamble for a Fred Taylor draft pick is well worth. They have the depth and confidence in their unproven guys to make that move, and so will I.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:59 am

Sixxgunn wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Sixxgunn wrote:I can see one recurring theme in most of these RB threads, and that is the focus on YPC. Sure, as a head coach that means tons to you, but as a FF player, I couldn't care less about the color of Osama Bin Laden's walls in his spider hole. I mean really, why does anyone care if it took your guy 15 carries or 35 carries, as long as he gets you that 100 yds and a TD? Quitter Ricky was the king of crap when it came to YPC, yet people were drafting him as high as 3 in some leagues.


Did you miss 2002? Ricky Williams#2 overall RB that year led by his 1800+ yards rushing. I don't think you can reach those levels with a poor ypc average... Nopehad 4.8 that year... Which in itself is a very high % but on 383 carries? That's pretty special right there.


Apparently you missed the point. Go ahead and take his best year by nearly 500 yds and try to prove your point. His career YPC is 4. Not stellar, but not bad. 2 seasons of 3.5, 2 at 4.0, and one at 4.8...which just happens to make his career ypc a bit inflated. His last season? 3.5 ypc---not too hot. But he got to approximately 1300 yds, and that was my point. Now what was that you were saying? Don't focus on my choice of examples, focus on the point.


2002 was his first year on the Dolphin's. 2003 the Dolphin's had the worst o-line in the NFL. 2004 Ricky retired and we saw that yup, the Dolphin's still had the worst o-line in the NFL. What was your point again exactly? Couldn't the 3.5 ypc in his poorest year influence his ypc just as much as the 4.8 ypc in his best year?

The point I'm trying to make is that every RB can have a poor season and go for 3.5 ypc on a lot of carries. But you can't run for 4.8ypc on 380+ carries on a fluke IMO. Show me a RB with a 350+ carry sample size with a 4.8+ ypc and turned out to be just an average career RB and maybe I'll believe you.
---

A guy with the skill to go for a high ypc, is a potential top10 RB. A lot of people forget that there are many RBs that can get you between 1000-1300 yards in any given year. The real difference makers are up in the 1400-2000 yard range. And if you have a crappy ypc, you just can't reach those top levels without getting a ton of carries. And one RB can only get you so many carries in a season.
---

P.S. - You ignore that Ricky William's was one of the few featured RBs that would catch 40+ passes in any given year, which further elevates his value. Give a pounder like Jamal Lewis or Rudi Johnson that type of versatility and they are top RBs as well.
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Postby Sixxgunn » Thu Jul 21, 2005 11:08 am

Kensat30 wrote:
2002 was his first year on the Dolphin's. 2003 the Dolphin's had the worst o-line in the NFL. 2004 Ricky retired and we saw that yup, the Dolphin's still had the worst o-line in the NFL. What was your point again exactly? Couldn't the 3.5 ypc in his poorest year influence his ypc just as much as the 4.8 ypc in his best year?

The point I'm trying to make is that every RB can have a poor season and go for 3.5 ypc on a lot of carries. But you can't run for 4.8ypc on 380+ carries on a fluke IMO. Show me a RB with a 350+ carry sample size with a 4.8+ ypc and turned out to be just an average career RB and maybe I'll believe you.


Obviously you are content to argue although there is nothing to argue about. My question was concerning the emphasis in FF on ypc....not Ricky Williams ONE spectacular year. I was however saying that his ypc were awful in his last season, but he still put up decent numbers, backing up my point about not really putting too much stock in ypc in relation to drafting RB's in FF. Anyone else get confused by this?
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 11:08 am

MadScott wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Yes, 5th round is a decent place to risk it, and provides good
value for a starting RB. But there are other starting RBs with
less risk going in the same area (Barlow, Dunn, Staley), and it is
my feeling that Foster's upside is much lower than people tend to
think, questioning whether or not all that added risk is really
worth it.


I'll grab Dunn in the 4th, Foster in the 5th, and Barlow in the 6th and see what happens. Meanwhile Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison will be manning my WR1 and WR2 spots respectively.


A bit off topic, but I've seen a lot of people talk about this, but has anyone actually tried it? I'd be interested to see the results but despite the fact that I usually pick a lot of risky players, have never had the jewels to forgo RB drafting until round 4 or later. Have you ever actually done this and did it work out? Just wondering.


http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... .php?f=138

Kensat talked me off a ledge in this league. :-b Granted it was an 8 teamer, but I didn't go #2 RB until the 5th rd. I did grab F. Taylor, Henry and Ricky later on to fill the stockpile.


Caddy, F.Taylor, Henry, and Ricky to battle for a #2 RB spot beside #1 RB Holmes/Larry Johnson looks pretty strong.

OH yeah you also got Moss, Owens, and Gonzalez in the process.. nice job.
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Postby MadScott » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:09 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Yes, 5th round is a decent place to risk it, and provides good
value for a starting RB. But there are other starting RBs with
less risk going in the same area (Barlow, Dunn, Staley), and it is
my feeling that Foster's upside is much lower than people tend to
think, questioning whether or not all that added risk is really
worth it.


I'll grab Dunn in the 4th, Foster in the 5th, and Barlow in the 6th and see what happens. Meanwhile Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison will be manning my WR1 and WR2 spots respectively.


A bit off topic, but I've seen a lot of people talk about this, but has anyone actually tried it? I'd be interested to see the results but despite the fact that I usually pick a lot of risky players, have never had the jewels to forgo RB drafting until round 4 or later. Have you ever actually done this and did it work out? Just wondering.


It has really only emerged recently for me with the "emergence" of a "2nd-tier of stud WRs" .. Before it was just Moss, Harrison, and Owens every year. Usually 2 of the 3 went in the first or early 2nd, while the odd man out you MIGHT have been able to get late 2nd. It didn't make sense to take another WR in the 3rd round because nothing was guaranteed there.

Now you can add Torry Holt and Chad Johnson to the list of "2nd tier studs" because of their high yardage and touchdown consistency of the last several seasons. Joe Horn also should be right there. They provide solid value in taking a 3rd round WR IMO.

I view all of these players as virtual locks for top10 WR, and we all know how volatile the RBs can be. I'm looking back through drafts last year..the 2nd round and even 1st round RB results are not pretty. I've seen lists of 5th round draft picks at ANY position that busted last year, but just look at the RBs in the first 2 rounds. I know I ended up with more than 1 of these guys on my teams...

2nd round picks: Barlow, Faulk, Henry, S.Davis, M.Bennett, Griffin, etc. were all worthless last year

1st round picks: Ahman, Portis, Deuce, F.Taylor, Holmes, Ricky, and Jamal didn't live up to expectations

---
Yet we see that Moss, Harrison, and Owens were all the same constant performers and Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, and Joe Horn continued to perform at a high level. Hines Ward didn't, but that is basically 6/7 that were able to live up to their draft position, versus a much lower percentage for the early RBs.
---

I regularily see the last "sure-thing" WR this year falling to the late 2nd and early 3rd rounds (Marvin Harrison), while Torry Holt and Chad Johnson are going in that same range just like last year.

It really makes sense to go with 1st round RB "add two high percentage WRs" and then just load up on other RBs later in the draft. That way you have a good chance of solid WRs (instead of taking a much lower percentage gamble in the 4th or 5th there) and then take your risk on RBs later. There is a whole range of starting RBs going in the 4th-7th rounds (possibly even into the 8th+ depending on leagues) due to question marks. These RBs all would have gone much earlier the year before.

Warrick Dunn: always underrated, always a #2 RB..

Rookie RBs X 4: you can take a shot that one could become the 2nd half version of Kevin Jones or Julius at some point in the year. Better yet one of them is a breakout performer.

Keven Barlow: heavily underrated due to his poor year.

Fred Taylor: potential steal of the draft due to injury concerns

Deshaun Foster, Michael Bennett, Lee Suggs, Duce Staley: all heavily underrated due to prior injury history.




If you can snag 3, or even 4 of these type of guys on your team wouldn't your percentage of a hit be much higher than just going with 2 first round RBs? You're drafting an additional 1 or 2 RBs and instead of trying to pick who the 4th round breakout WR is going to be, you pick who the productive RB#2 is going to be.

Not only do you get a decent chance to land a just as good RB than you would have gotten in the 2nd or 3rd round, your tendency to draft extra RBs to cover your weak spot is probably going to give you some of the best depth in the league at that position. Oh yeah did I mention that you have 2 "high-percentage WRs" and possibly a stud TE as well by this point in the draft? Don't forget that first round RB you picked up...
----

Looking at the WRs going in the 5th, 4th, and even 3rd rounds every year we see a TON of variability every single year. Why go with a low percentage RB in the 2nd round and 3rd round, low percentage WRs in the 4th and 5th? Why not gamble on the sure-things WRs early and then draft RB heavy later. There are so many starting RBs available in the early middle rounds it's freaking ridiculous. Even if you draft sees 25+ RBs go in the first 3 rounds, I can virtually guarantee you that you will be able to get at least 1 starter and 1 rookie RB in the 4th-6th rounds. Draft handcuffs or other sleeper RBs later and your RB position can be very solid.
---

Everyone is scared to be left out in the cold with RBs. That is what makes this strategy work IMO. We form such a bias against certain RBs that they are huge value come draft day... Deshaun Foster and Michael Bennett several owners will not touch on draft day. Yet Michael Bennett was once a pro-bowl player, and Deshaun Foster used to go in the 7th round when he was a BACKUP RB... Remember how Barlow was a top10 RB? He's still a featured RB people. Fred Taylor has improved enough that Jacksonville didn't want to pony up a draft pick for Henry.. IF and NFL franchise is willing to gamble their season like that, I think the gamble for a Fred Taylor draft pick is well worth. They have the depth and confidence in their unproven guys to make that move, and so will I.


The only question I would pose to you would be about the TE position and in particular the top 2 guys. Wouldn't you have to consider one of them in the third as well? I mean last season Gonzo put up damn neared top WR #s. How does that affect this plan?
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Postby maddog60 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:34 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Caddy, F.Taylor, Henry, and Ricky to battle for a #2 RB spot beside #1 RB Holmes/Larry Johnson looks pretty strong.

OH yeah you also got Moss, Owens, and Gonzalez in the process.. nice job.


Find me a single draft where Moss lasts until nearly the end of the 2nd round, Owens into the 3rd, and Gonzo till the end of the 4th. Whether or not these players should go at those positions, they're not. Replace those three with Holt, CJ, and Witten, and its a bit more plausible, but certainly not as assured of production.
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