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Re: Warpigs' Sure-fire Sleepers

Postby bellybrother » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:40 pm

Goatwhacker wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:This yr, Barlow regularly goes in the 6th rd or later. You can basically pick him up as your #4 RB easily.


If you are getting Barlow in the 6th as your #4 RB you have used only 2 picks for QB, WR and TE (assuming you're leaving defense and K until the end). Unless the draft is unfolding strangely I don't like this strategy. My leagues don't use flex so maybe that would change things somewhat


This would come into play if you've drafted a stud RB in the 1st then got 2 of the top 5 WR's in the 2nd and 3rd or a top WR in the 2nd and Gonzo or Gates in the 3rd. Which I did last year( 3rd overall, Holt and C. Johnson) and plan to do this year(11th overall Moss or TO in the 2nd and Gonzo or Gates in the 3rd if I can't trade down in the 2nd(and pick two top wr's) to move up in the 3rd and 5th). And we don't use flex either.
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Re: Warpigs' Sure-fire Sleepers

Postby Goatwhacker » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:49 pm

bellybrother wrote:
This would come into play if you've drafted a stud RB in the 1st then got 2 of the top 5 WR's in the 2nd and 3rd or a top WR in the 2nd and Gonzo or Gates in the 3rd. Which I did last year( 3rd overall, Holt and C. Johnson) and plan to do this year(11th overall Moss or TO in the 2nd and Gonzo or Gates in the 3rd if I can't trade down in the 2nd(and pick two top wr's) to move up in the 3rd and 5th). And we don't use flex either.


I hope I'm following you correctly - in the above scenario you are picking Barlow as your #4 RB in the sixth round but you are picking him ahead of a QB or TE? If I understand you right at the end of 6 rounds you have either 4RB-2WR or 4RB-WR-TE? On antsports there are often some decent QBs around in the sixth and I would be looking at one of them instead of Barlow.
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Re: Warpigs' Sure-fire Sleepers

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:56 pm

Goatwhacker wrote:
bellybrother wrote:
This would come into play if you've drafted a stud RB in the 1st then got 2 of the top 5 WR's in the 2nd and 3rd or a top WR in the 2nd and Gonzo or Gates in the 3rd. Which I did last year( 3rd overall, Holt and C. Johnson) and plan to do this year(11th overall Moss or TO in the 2nd and Gonzo or Gates in the 3rd if I can't trade down in the 2nd(and pick two top wr's) to move up in the 3rd and 5th). And we don't use flex either.


I hope I'm following you correctly - in the above scenario you are picking Barlow as your #4 RB in the sixth round but you are picking him ahead of a QB or TE? If I understand you right at the end of 6 rounds you have either 4RB-2WR or 4RB-WR-TE? On antsports there are often some decent QBs around in the sixth and I would be looking at one of them instead of Barlow.


I really dont look at it in those terms at all. Im just saying he should do much better than he did last yr, and from where he is being drafted, he represents good value.

Im not getting into if/then discussions. Those go nowhere.
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Re: Warpigs' Sure-fire Sleepers

Postby bellybrother » Fri Jul 22, 2005 3:34 pm

Goatwhacker wrote:
bellybrother wrote:
This would come into play if you've drafted a stud RB in the 1st then got 2 of the top 5 WR's in the 2nd and 3rd or a top WR in the 2nd and Gonzo or Gates in the 3rd. Which I did last year( 3rd overall, Holt and C. Johnson) and plan to do this year(11th overall Moss or TO in the 2nd and Gonzo or Gates in the 3rd if I can't trade down in the 2nd(and pick two top wr's) to move up in the 3rd and 5th). And we don't use flex either.


I hope I'm following you correctly - in the above scenario you are picking Barlow as your #4 RB in the sixth round but you are picking him ahead of a QB or TE? If I understand you right at the end of 6 rounds you have either 4RB-2WR or 4RB-WR-TE? On antsports there are often some decent QBs around in the sixth and I would be looking at one of them instead of Barlow.


That's exactly what I'm saying. First let me say that this is a 12 team league with no flex position. Now, I'm perfectly happy taking Plummer(who finished as QB5 last year) in the 7th where he is falling in the mocks I've done on antsports. In the few instances where he hasn't fallen there are still QB's like Palmer(sometimes), Hass(sometimes), Brooks(almost all the time), Delhomme(all the time) and Brees(all the time) around. And often(almost all the time) I have been able to get a combo of Plummer/Palmer or Plummer/Brooks or Plummer/Hass or Palmer/Brooks or Brooks/Hass at 7 and 8.

I'm perfectly happy with that. Last year my QB's were Penny(I drafted), Griese(picked off waivers) and Palmer(dratfed, dropped, then picked off waivers in the last 1/3 of the season) and that got me to the championship game. Of course picking up C-Mart in the 4th helped, but that's the idea behind loading up on RB's in rds 4-6(last year my Rb's from 4-6 were C-Mart, Julius, Foster). One of them may break out and perform much above value or you can pick matchups and get very good RB2 production out of them. And Foster, Julius and an Oterrio Smith pickup got me through SA's(my 1st rd pick) and C-Mart's bye weeks). The trick is picking the right RB's in 4-6.

Last year I picked at 1:03. At the turns of 2/3 I picked Holt and C. Johnson(who finished 7th and 9th WR. both well under my expectations, but both did well enough even with that).

This year I pick 1:11 and hope to pick Moss with my 2:02 pick, if he goes before that then TO if I can't trade down to pick 2 WR's like last year(this I like because it also gives me a better pick in the 5th, better pick = better chance at a RB I like there). If I stay at 2:02 and take Moss or TO, I'll hope Gonzo or Gates drops to me at 3:11. Then I'll pick from the wealth of value WR's left at my 9/10 picks after I've gotten my 2 QB's. The wr's normally around at this time are guys like Charles Rogers, Keenan McCardell and Eddie Kennison. Not great, but solid production possibly considering I have TO or Moss as my WR1. Especially if Rogers stays healthy. And Rogers has been there for me at 10 every time but once.

If I can trade down in the 2nd and take 2 WR's at 2:10 and 3:03, then I'll wait on a TE until 9-10(or even later if there are still WR's around I like there) and grab a sleeper there like Putzier, Jolley or Cooley.

In the serious mock I'm in right now I have...
Portis
Moss
Gonzo
Dunn
Foster
Barlow

in that order and hope to get 2 QB's in my next 2 picks. Very reasonable seeing as how Plummer, Palmer, Brooks, Delhomme and Brees are still there, it's 8 picks til my next pick and 10 of the 12 teams already have there starting QB. So even if the one other guy who doesn't have a QB yet takes one(he picks before my next pick), I'm still gonna get either Plummer or Palmer and one of the three(Brooks, Delhomme and Brees) that are left. That's very similar to my winning formula from last year(since Gonzo performs almost like a WR1 and is much better than most of the other TE's) and I'll take that again this year.
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Re: Warpigs' Sure-fire Sleepers

Postby Goatwhacker » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:26 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Im not getting into if/then discussions. Those go nowhere.


No worries, I think it comes down to "best value available" vs "filling a need". I use kind of a blend of both, you focus more on the value aspect.


bellybrother : Thanks for the explanation, looks like you're putting together a good team there (except for Barlow ;-) )
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Postby bellybrother » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:16 pm

To continue this hijack(sorry bout that)........ I was able to get Palmer and Brooks as my Qb's in rds 7 and 8. And I know they both have bye week 10, but that's a lotta time to pick up a hot QB from waivers to plug in that week and in the meantime, I have 2 Qb's to play matchups or the hot hand.
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