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Michael Vick

Postby aussieboy » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:10 am

I just took a look at Antsports ADP for Vick and he is currently being taken at around the 80th overall pick in 12 team leagues.

I think this is monster value. In fact I think anywhere after round 4 is outstanding value for Vick.

Now I understand Vick is:

1) a massive injury concern
2) not a great passing QB
3) injury concern
4) injury concern
5) inconsistent
6) injury concern

However i think Vick could be in for a great fantasy season this year.

We all know Vicks upside, his rushing numbers for a QB are silly and unprecedented, I don't think I need to go into how massive a rushing QB can be in fantasy. The impact 50 rushing yards a game has is huge. 50 rushing yards =125 passing yards. If Vick can average say 200 passing yards a game on top of his standard 50 rushing yards a game, that's 13 fantasy points straight away. Without any TDs.

Anyway, people often talk about how inconsistent Vick is. However people forget this guy hasn't ever played in the same offense for 2 yrs in a row. This will be the first time he is going to be able to further improve his ability within an offense, instead of learning a completely new one.

Check out 2002, Vick averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game. To put that into perspective, last season Cpepp averaged 20.6 and Manning averaged 21.1. Vick did that in his first season as a fulltime starter. The following season Vick broke his leg, and then last season not only did he have to learn a completely new offense (an offense which is notorious for its complexity), he had to try and overcome the psychological aspect of trusting and forgetting about his broken leg. So why is everyone hating on him?

I know Vick was more of a liability to his owners last yr, frustrating time and time again. Please don't tell me why he was crap last yr. Do you think he will improve or remain the same, why?

Is it that inconceivable that Vick could reproduce his 2002 numbers? If he does, he's gonna be great value to those that are drafting him in those middle rounds.

P.S-I forgot to mention how fun it is owning Vick. After all FF is supposed to be fun. How awesome is it watching Vick when he goes for one of those 150 rushing yard games. Conversely it isn't pretty when he throws for 3INTs.
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Postby maddog60 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:30 am

Starting Vick is like going all in with an open-ended straight draw. Sure its fun and exciting, but I wouldn't do it unless I was desperate.
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Postby aussieboy » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:33 am

maddog60 wrote:Starting Vick is like going all in with an open-ended straight draw. Sure its fun and exciting, but I wouldn't do it unless I was desperate.


Sure, based on last seasons performance.

I outlined a number of reasons why Vick was not very good last season. So i take it you think he will continue in the same mould as last yr? You don't think 2002 stats are possible?
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Postby maddog60 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:43 am

I've posted far too many times the many problems with Vick at the QB position overall are. Its late, so forgive me, but I'm not going to reiterate them.

I do think its possible for him to have another flash in the pan, but I truly don't ever see him living up to the hype, and when he defense stops coming up big for him when he's forced to throw, its going to hurt that franchise big time.
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Postby MadScott » Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:21 am

While I do have the same gripes as everyone else has in regards to Vick's erratic point production at the QB position last season, I too have recently been thinking that if he does drop that far in a draft, I'll pull the trigger.

From all accounts that I've read and heard this offseason, Vick has been working in the pocket like a mad man this offseason and plans to try and minimize his scrambling this season. I think with one year of the WCO under his belt and what sounds like total commitment to practice and learn this offseason, he could become a legit passer this season, especially if Jenkins or White can do anything at WR.
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Postby aussieboy » Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:34 am

Hmm, i'd be worried if Vick scrambled less.

I do believe however that the coaches can try and keep Vick in the pocket as much as they like, the fact of the matter is if Vick sees a hole he'll take off.
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Postby MadScott » Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:47 am

I think the intention is to really get him focused on pass first, run second.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:37 am

This might be the same thing that aussie said...but just for fun, I pulled up Randall Cunningham's best full season stats:<pre>Season Team G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD
1990 PHI 16 91.6 271 465 58.3 3466 216.6 7.5 30 13 118 942 58.9 8.0 5 </pre>It said he didn't fumble at all...but I'm wary of that. I think Yahoo didn't have those stats for the first several years of his career... :-/ Anyway, in a 25/4/-2 system, that would be good for 356.84 points. That's equivalent to what Manning scored last year in a similar system (360.08). 8-o 8-o

Here's Vick from 2002:<pre>Season Team G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD
2002 ATL 15 81.6 231 421 54.9 2936 195.7 7.0 16 8 113 777 51.8 6.9 8</pre>Vick's 2002 in that 25/4/-2 system is good for 257.54 points...not quite up to snuff with these Manning or Randall "career years." In a 25/6/-2 system, Vick hit Manning-like numbers. But, Manning's numbers in a 25/6/-2 spring up to well over 400 points. I think you gave crossed-up stats, aussie... :-/

I think it'd be safe to say that if Vick ever reached those Randall numbers, he'd be doing something special. I just don't see him throwing 30 TD's in a year. I don't think he'll ever run for 10+ TD's. I doubt he will pass for over 3200 yards. He will still run when he gets pressured. I think this passer first thing is hooey. :-)

So in a sentence, I don't think he's going to be a #1 fantasy QB over the course of a season. However, he can be a #1 fantasy QB on a case-by-case basis - meaning that a few weeks a year he can outscore everyone. That's the only redeeming quality I see in having him. If you want to run a revolving QB system during the year, you have a good chance at scoring big when Vick goes against defenses that can't handle him.

I still think he's way too inconsistent a fantasy scorer to use as an exclusive #1. 80th position seems about right - 7th round would be fair value for a low-end #1 or a FQBBC type guy.

Just as a funny aside - I owned Vick one year...it must have been '02. Let me tell you, it was never fun. :-b I think I started him in every single bad week he had. I ended up using Tommy Maddox for most of the year. !+)

And for you guys who played fantasy football in the early 90s - Cunningham must have been a GOD for a few years! ;-D
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Postby toofunny » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:27 am

maddog60 wrote:Starting Vick is like going all in with an open-ended straight draw. Sure its fun and exciting, but I wouldn't do it unless I was desperate.


But when the price is right, you never fold. And Vick in the 8th round, a 25 year old pro bowl qb, who is capable of being a FF stud?

McNabb used to average 15-16 TDs a year. Then suddenly TO showed up, and now he's an elite QB? Ehh.. Vick has no WRs, a crappy line, and he's on his 3rd OC. One of these years Vick will put it together, you just want to get him cheap enough where if he doesn't pan out, you're team isn't ruined. But drafting Vick as a backup QB in the 8th round? That's a monster steal.

Give Vick Moss, Porter, Jordan. His fantasy production would destroy Collins. The problem is Vick doesn't have WRs who go after the ball aggressively. Look at Farve's WRs. Their attitude is, just throw it up, we'll go get it. That is the polar opposite of Price. I've seen so many CBs jump infront of him for INTs, I don't blame Vick for refusing to throw to anyone but Crumps. Vick has a strong, wild arm. No worse then Farve when he was young. He just needs to stay in the same system, and get aggressive WRs who will bail out his wild throws. Vick has all the tools, its just getting the WRs and offense to put it all together.
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Postby Jimboozie » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:30 am

maddog60 wrote:Starting Vick is like going all in with an open-ended straight draw. Sure its fun and exciting, but I wouldn't do it unless I was desperate.


LOL. :-b

let me try one.

Vick as a number #1 qb is similar to going all in with a 23. Yeah, you could catch a miracle flop but most likely you will be heading to the rail.
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