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Postby ROYALWITCHEESE » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:12 am

I, for one, think his numbers will be very similar to last years. If Calico is any good, Bennett will not be able to be double-teamed. In fact, most teams will probably underestimate him the same way you all are now. Not to mention the fact that the defense sucks again and they will be playing from behind in every game. They will throw 65% of the time this year. Also toward the end of the season they started using Bennett in a Randy Moss-like fashion-throwing him jump balls in the redzone.
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:50 am

ROYALWITCHEESE wrote:I, for one, think his numbers will be very similar to last years. If Calico is any good, Bennett will not be able to be double-teamed. In fact, most teams will probably underestimate him the same way you all are now. Not to mention the fact that the defense sucks again and they will be playing from behind in every game. They will throw 65% of the time this year. Also toward the end of the season they started using Bennett in a Randy Moss-like fashion-throwing him jump balls in the redzone.


I was under the impression that the majority of Bennett's touchdowns (especially in his big games) can from long TDs (over 20 yards).

17 redzone targets / 2 redzone touchdowns
Ranking him #19th / #36th among WRs

I'm looking at his redzone targets and production and I'm just not seeing the effectiveness in the redzone. Seems to confirm my recollection of a lot of 20+ yard TDs from Bennett..

I don't think you're talking goalline targets here because Bennett only had 3 targets the entire year with 1 TD. Maybe you were remembering Derrick Mason, he had the 2nd most goalline targets in the league last year behind Randy Moss and 4 goalline TDs.
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Postby ROYALWITCHEESE » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:43 am

Who cares about goal line TDs from a WR. The redzone starts at the 20. And as you said yourself he ranked 19th in Redzone looks. That is only going to increase now that he is a full time starter. I expect him to pull down more TDs this season as well.

And this still doesn't dispute the fact that they will be playing from behind a lot and going down field.
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Postby MadScott » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:49 am

Kensat30 wrote:
ROYALWITCHEESE wrote:I, for one, think his numbers will be very similar to last years. If Calico is any good, Bennett will not be able to be double-teamed. In fact, most teams will probably underestimate him the same way you all are now. Not to mention the fact that the defense sucks again and they will be playing from behind in every game. They will throw 65% of the time this year. Also toward the end of the season they started using Bennett in a Randy Moss-like fashion-throwing him jump balls in the redzone.


I was under the impression that the majority of Bennett's touchdowns (especially in his big games) can from long TDs (over 20 yards).

17 redzone targets / 2 redzone touchdowns
Ranking him #19th / #36th among WRs

I'm looking at his redzone targets and production and I'm just not seeing the effectiveness in the redzone. Seems to confirm my recollection of a lot of 20+ yard TDs from Bennett..

I don't think you're talking goalline targets here because Bennett only had 3 targets the entire year with 1 TD. Maybe you were remembering Derrick Mason, he had the 2nd most goalline targets in the league last year behind Randy Moss and 4 goalline TDs.
That's pretty amazing considering the guy is 6'5" and over 200lbs. Of course being a good red zone target is more than just being physically impressive.
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Postby tanner » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:56 am

he's a bust.
averaged something like 4-54 per game with McNair during his career..

I wouldn't be surprised to see Chris Brown lead that team in receptions..he's going to be used like Reggie Bush was at USC..

Bennett is the most overvalued player in fantasy football for 2005.
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Postby gablefan » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:21 am

BUST!![/b]
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:21 am

ROYALWITCHEESE wrote:Who cares about goal line TDs from a WR. The redzone starts at the 20. And as you said yourself he ranked 19th in Redzone looks. That is only going to increase now that he is a full time starter. I expect him to pull down more TDs this season as well.

And this still doesn't dispute the fact that they will be playing from behind a lot and going down field.


Ranked 19th in redzone targets and 36th in TDs... Yet overall he ranked #10 in targets and #9 in TDs.

If he was anywhere NEAR a halfway decent redzone option, his redzone rankings would be ABOVE his overall stats not well BELOW them.
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If we're trying to assess Bennett's effectiveness at scoring redzone TDs... let's look at all the other NFL WRs who caught 2 TD passes in the redzone last year and see where Bennett ranked among them.

WR - RZ Targets - RZ TDs
Drew Bennett - 17 - 2
Curtis Conway - 14 - 2
David Givens - 14 - 2
Keyshawn Johnson - 12 - 2
Donte Stallworth - 11 - 2
Jabar Gaffney - 11 - 2
Brandon Lloyd - 11 - 2
Antonio Bryant - 10 - 2
Santana Moss - 9 - 2
Kelley Washington - 8 - 2
Keary Colbert - 8 - 2
Antwaan Randle-El - 8 - 2
Plaxico Burress - 7 - 2
Brian Finneran - 6 - 2
Ronald Curry - 6 - 2
Cedric Wilson - 6 - 2
Kassim Osgood - 5 - 2
Ernest Wilford - 5 - 2
Freddie Mitchell - 4 - 2
Quincy Morgan - 3 - 2
Cortez Hankton - 2 - 2



If you want more comparable samples, look at all the WRs with 3 or less redzone TDs with over 15 redzone receptions. I know these are arbitrary numbers, but I'm giving Drew the benefit of the doubt that maybe he had a TD called back or had a bad pass that could have given him 3 TDs instead of 2. I'll limit the sample size to 15 receptions so we can look at WRs who had comparible redzone chances.

Now look at what kind of end of year numbers those players ended up with...

WR - RZ Targets - RZ TDs
Eric Moulds (88/1043/<b>5</b>) - 25 - 3
Eddie Kennison (62/1086/<b>8</b>) - 19 - 3
Ike Hilliard - (49/437/<b>0</b>) 18 - 0
Laveranues Coles (90/950/<b>1</b>) - 17 - 1
Drew Bennett (80/1247/<b>11</b>) - 17 - 2
Jimmy Smith (74/1172/<b>6</b>) - 16 - 1
Hines Ward (80/1004/<b>4</b>) - 16 - 3
Torry Holt (94/1374/<b>10</b>) - 15 - 3



We notice that Torry Holt and Eddie Kennison are the only top fantasy performers in this range. Kennison throughout his career has been known as a seriously inconsistent performer and had a career year in 2004, while Torry Holt is a borderline stud. On the other side of the coin, we have a couple major busts here in Hines Ward, Eric Moulds, Lavernous Coles. Mixed results.

What is the greatest knock against Holt the best fantasy WR in this group? His yardage has been elite for 5 consecutive years, but you never know what kind of TD production to expect... Despite averaging well over 90 catches the past 5 seasons, Holt has only broken double digit touchdowns twice, and he averages less than 8 TDs.

------

One last exercise, let's look at Drew's peers in terms of fantasy points. Drew was ranked the #6 overall WR last year, so let's examine top #20 ranked WRs and how they did in the redzone. I'll order them based on redzone stats rather than overall rank, so we can determine where each individual ranked in the redzone effectiveness.

Rank - WR - RZ Targets - RZ TDs
#1 Muhsin Muhammad - 27 - 11
#5 Marvin Harrison - 28 - 9
#19 Randy Moss - 24 - 9
#3 Joe Horn - 20 - 7
#2 Javon Walker - 19 - 7
#4 Terrell Owens - 17 - 7
#20 Jerry Porter - 26 - 6
#16 Nate Burleson - 25 - 6
#8 Reggie Wayne - 21 - 6
#9 Chad Johnson - 25 - 5
#17 Derrick Mason - 24 - 5
#12 Isaac  Bruce - 14 - 5
#15 Rod Smith - 19 - 4
#10 Donald Driver - 19 - 4
#14 Darrell Jackson - 18 - 4
#11 Brandon Stokley - 11 - 4
#18 Eddie Kennison - 19 - 3
#7 Torry Holt - 15 - 3
#13 Michael  Clayton - 13 - 3
#6 Drew  Bennett - 17 - 2


Uh oh, not looking good. Bennett is in the range of unproven and inconsistent players. The only other comparable player that low on the chart, is again Torry Holt. A player who had over 1300+ yards receiving for 5 consecutive years. Drew Bennett has caught for over 550 yards ONCE in his career....

Eddie Kennison, Brandon Stokely, Drew Bennett...

These players all make my top5 list of WRs not likely to exceed or match their '04 ranking. I guess now I know why I held a bias. They all lived off the long TD....

Just like 2003 Santana Moss.
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Postby bagobonez » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:15 pm

I'm expecting 800 and 7 TD's, which means he's being drafted way too high.
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Postby bellybrother » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:30 pm

Kensat, your research inspires me. Strong. Real strong.
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Postby caneblood » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:52 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
ROYALWITCHEESE wrote:Who cares about goal line TDs from a WR. The redzone starts at the 20. And as you said yourself he ranked 19th in Redzone looks. That is only going to increase now that he is a full time starter. I expect him to pull down more TDs this season as well.

And this still doesn't dispute the fact that they will be playing from behind a lot and going down field.


Ranked 19th in redzone targets and 36th in TDs... Yet overall he ranked #10 in targets and #9 in TDs.

If he was anywhere NEAR a halfway decent redzone option, his redzone rankings would be ABOVE his overall stats not well BELOW them.
-------

If we're trying to assess Bennett's effectiveness at scoring redzone TDs... let's look at all the other NFL WRs who caught 2 TD passes in the redzone last year and see where Bennett ranked among them.

WR - RZ Targets - RZ TDs
Drew Bennett - 17 - 2
Curtis Conway - 14 - 2
David Givens - 14 - 2
Keyshawn Johnson - 12 - 2
Donte Stallworth - 11 - 2
Jabar Gaffney - 11 - 2
Brandon Lloyd - 11 - 2
Antonio Bryant - 10 - 2
Santana Moss - 9 - 2
Kelley Washington - 8 - 2
Keary Colbert - 8 - 2
Antwaan Randle-El - 8 - 2
Plaxico Burress - 7 - 2
Brian Finneran - 6 - 2
Ronald Curry - 6 - 2
Cedric Wilson - 6 - 2
Kassim Osgood - 5 - 2
Ernest Wilford - 5 - 2
Freddie Mitchell - 4 - 2
Quincy Morgan - 3 - 2
Cortez Hankton - 2 - 2



If you want more comparable samples, look at all the WRs with 3 or less redzone TDs with over 15 redzone receptions. I know these are arbitrary numbers, but I'm giving Drew the benefit of the doubt that maybe he had a TD called back or had a bad pass that could have given him 3 TDs instead of 2. I'll limit the sample size to 15 receptions so we can look at WRs who had comparible redzone chances.

Now look at what kind of end of year numbers those players ended up with...

WR - RZ Targets - RZ TDs
Eric Moulds (88/1043/<b>5</b>) - 25 - 3
Eddie Kennison (62/1086/<b>8</b>) - 19 - 3
Ike Hilliard - (49/437/<b>0</b>) 18 - 0
Laveranues Coles (90/950/<b>1</b>) - 17 - 1
Drew Bennett (80/1247/<b>11</b>) - 17 - 2
Jimmy Smith (74/1172/<b>6</b>) - 16 - 1
Hines Ward (80/1004/<b>4</b>) - 16 - 3
Torry Holt (94/1374/<b>10</b>) - 15 - 3



We notice that Torry Holt and Eddie Kennison are the only top fantasy performers in this range. Kennison throughout his career has been known as a seriously inconsistent performer and had a career year in 2004, while Torry Holt is a borderline stud. On the other side of the coin, we have a couple major busts here in Hines Ward, Eric Moulds, Lavernous Coles. Mixed results.

What is the greatest knock against Holt the best fantasy WR in this group? His yardage has been elite for 5 consecutive years, but you never know what kind of TD production to expect... Despite averaging well over 90 catches the past 5 seasons, Holt has only broken double digit touchdowns twice, and he averages less than 8 TDs.

------

One last exercise, let's look at Drew's peers in terms of fantasy points. Drew was ranked the #6 overall WR last year, so let's examine top #20 ranked WRs and how they did in the redzone. I'll order them based on redzone stats rather than overall rank, so we can determine where each individual ranked in the redzone effectiveness.

Rank - WR - RZ Targets - RZ TDs
#1 Muhsin Muhammad - 27 - 11
#5 Marvin Harrison - 28 - 9
#19 Randy Moss - 24 - 9
#3 Joe Horn - 20 - 7
#2 Javon Walker - 19 - 7
#4 Terrell Owens - 17 - 7
#20 Jerry Porter - 26 - 6
#16 Nate Burleson - 25 - 6
#8 Reggie Wayne - 21 - 6
#9 Chad Johnson - 25 - 5
#17 Derrick Mason - 24 - 5
#12 Isaac  Bruce - 14 - 5
#15 Rod Smith - 19 - 4
#10 Donald Driver - 19 - 4
#14 Darrell Jackson - 18 - 4
#11 Brandon Stokley - 11 - 4
#18 Eddie Kennison - 19 - 3
#7 Torry Holt - 15 - 3
#13 Michael  Clayton - 13 - 3
#6 Drew  Bennett - 17 - 2


Uh oh, not looking good. Bennett is in the range of unproven and inconsistent players. The only other comparable player that low on the chart, is again Torry Holt. A player who had over 1300+ yards receiving for 5 consecutive years. Drew Bennett has caught for over 550 yards ONCE in his career....

Eddie Kennison, Brandon Stokely, Drew Bennett...

These players all make my top5 list of WRs not likely to exceed or match their '04 ranking. I guess now I know why I held a bias. They all lived off the long TD....

Just like 2003 Santana Moss.


Wow!

Now that is some impressive research. You got any other tips for us?
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