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SOS overrated

Postby aussieboy » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:02 am

I think too many guys give too much importance to SOS. This latest article from kffl says it well I think.

LINK


I'll only use SOS to differentiate between two guys I can't separate using any other means.
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Postby tanner » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:41 am

i disagree with that article..
you telling me miami is actually gonna win 7 games this year?!?!
vegas O/u is 5.5 and falling...Frerotte v. Atl, Carolina, Jets(2), Pats(2), Buffalo(2),

Portis faces a very easy schedule v. the run...you think SF, kc, oakland, seattle, Az, Denver have improved defensively??
no way! kc will still be a bottom feeder, so will oakland's rotten D,
Denver has 4 new d-linemen that couldn't play in Ceveland suddenly they're good d-linemen in Denver?!?! Az is lousy, and Seattle has 5 new starters, most are just plain old has-beens and castoffs...

so you think the SOS doesn't matter to a guy like Portis? wrong. He played one of the toughest SOS's last year, and it showed, just 1315 yards rushing..
why do you think cmart is ranked so low in most fantasy mags?? becuase Jets play a tough schedule against established, good defenses..he's 30-something too, but he plays a tough schedule..so if you don't believe in SOS, you go ahead and take Cmart #1 overall then..he did, afterall, lead the league in rushing last year, he's worthy of a #1 overall pick for that reason alone, right?!?!
what about SD last year?? you think they got to 12-4 because they played a tough schedule??? they played houston,carolina, jets ( early), Jax ( early), Oak 2x, new orleans, kc 2x, TB, Cle, indy...
of those defenses which one is actually one you'd consider 'good'..??? jax? maybe. jets? not in week 2 they weren't...
In 2003, the surprise teamwas carolina...
they played 6 games against thir division which went 20-28 on the year..
they also played houston , detroit,jax, washington,which ALL finished 5-11..then they played NYG and AZ, each finished at 4-12..
the only teams carolina played that had winning records? dallas, philly, indy, tenn..4 lousy games against able foes..!

so you think Steve smith, foster, davis, delhomme had fluke years or had little fantasy value? no.they were ALL worth their weight in 2003...

this year, sd plays on paper, one of the hardest schedules.
vegas agrees..their O/u for wins/losses is 8..they were 12-4 last year..a full 4 game slide...
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Postby bellybrother » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:46 am

SOS is really something to consider during the FF playoffs. Would you rather your feature back be playing against Pittsburgh or KC during your playoffs?
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Postby Gnu314 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:16 pm

Yeah I agree with Belly... I only look at matchups during week 15 and 16 when I draft. I figure that a star RB is going to get me enough points to get me to the playoffs hopefully... but I bump up players that will be playing terrible teams in weeks 15 and 16. (I'm not talking last years terrible teams either, I'm talking historically absymal teams)
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Postby VaderFin » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:52 pm

Take San Diego. 2 years ago they sucked. So if San Diego was on your schedule last year they really helped make your SOS low. Well, guess what....they sure didn't suck last year. SOS was totally wrong for all the teams they played. It is a guarantee that another or two will do the same this year.

P.S. Miami WILL win 7 games this year. Homerism at its finest. ;-D
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jul 22, 2005 3:12 pm

Well, theres an initial fallacy associated with that article and the argument that SoS isnt a useful tool. That is - you cant use the usual SoS model based on last yrs numbers - and to me, thats kinda like a no brainer comment. If you are using the SoS numbers based solely on last yr, then yeah, it wont help at all.

However - if you look into matchups and project Ds will strengthen or decline based on offseason personel moves, then its a much better indicator.

Take the NFC North as an example. Each team in there save for GB went from being a poor defensive team to one that could be top 15 pretty easily. Then you add in the fact that they play the AFC North this yr instead of the AFC South. Thats a significant impact IMO.

Point is, using SoS on its face value is bad. Adjusting a players stats positively or negatively based on your own SoS is very important.
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Postby bellybrother » Fri Jul 22, 2005 3:42 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Well, theres an initial fallacy associated with that article and the argument that SoS isnt a useful tool. That is - you cant use the usual SoS model based on last yrs numbers - and to me, thats kinda like a no brainer comment. If you are using the SoS numbers based solely on last yr, then yeah, it wont help at all.

However - if you look into matchups and project Ds will strengthen or decline based on offseason personel moves, then its a much better indicator.

Take the NFC North as an example. Each team in there save for GB went from being a poor defensive team to one that could be top 15 pretty easily. Then you add in the fact that they play the AFC North this yr instead of the AFC South. Thats a significant impact IMO.

Point is, using SoS on its face value is bad. Adjusting a players stats positively or negatively based on your own SoS is very important.


Yeah, what CB said.
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 3:50 pm

How many people had New York Jets and Pittsburgh defense rated as top5 in the preseason last year?

How many had Miami and Dallas in the bottom 5?

No one really knows where defenses are going to end up basing it on last year stats. There are actually studies out there which show that a bottom 10 team from year N is actually MORE likely to be a top10 defense in year N+1 than a previous top10 team.

That's how much variance there is in defenses year to year.
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I like strength of schedule a lot more when you look at the division as whole, rather than individual teams. Helps you keep SOS limited to a broader, less rigid approach, so it doesn't over-influence your individual rankings on a week to week basis.

Last year if you counted on San Diego as a pushover run D you were SOL, but if you looked at the AFC West as a run-easy division you were OK. If you assumed the Jets were an easy matchup you were again SOL, but if you saw the AFC East in general as a tough defensive division against the run you did well.

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Finally, you've got to figure that any team who finished #1 in their division is going to face slightly tougher opponent's from the year before, because they have to face all the other #1s in their conference.. The reverse is true of teams that finished the worst in their division.

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Based on this theory alone, one team with good run matchups throughout there year will be..... The Washington Redskin's.

Although their divisional opponents aren't known for weak run defenses, Washington gets to face both the AFC West and NFC West as their out of division opponents. Not to mention they face the worst team in each division in the NFC based on 2004 records. If Dallas, NYGiants, or Philly turns out to be weak at stopping the run, Washington could have as many as 10 favorable rushing matchups on their schedule next year.

This caused me to bump Portis to the top of his tier in my rankings. Above players like Mcgahee, Kevin Jones, and Ahman Green, all of who I consider to be similar.
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