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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:23 pm

Dplymkr88 wrote:So why the fascination with 30 carries a game? Is 30 some magic number that guarantees a fantasy win?


Great question. Yes - there does seem to be a significant correlation between carries and production for JJ. In his game breakdown from last yr, the 3 games he didnt get more than 25 carries, he didnt break 90 yds, and his YPC were under 4. Further - his longest run in those games was 15 yds or less. It seems that JJ is the type of RB who does increasingly better the more carries he gets.
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Postby Lushcrush » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:27 pm

You're right ... 30 is not a magic number for fantasy success.
The magic number is how many carries can JJ handle and stand up to the beating he will take. We don't know that yet ... maybe Parcells does but we don't. It's gonna be interesting to see how JJ pans out.
At the same time, I personally think JJ will suffer injuries again this year and ATrain will step in and reward all those farseeing owners who picked him up.
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Postby Lushcrush » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:30 pm

OK, I found an online Magic 8 Ball and asked this question:
Will JJ break again this year?
The answer is:
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Postby Dplymkr88 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:31 pm

And you're drawing that conclusion from 8 games. Interesting.
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Postby texasmouth » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:37 pm

Everyone is drawing conclusions from 8 games. That is all we have to base opinions on. JJ doesn't need 30+ carries. In the games he got less than 30, they were playing from behind and throwing the ball more. When he did get carries he produced. I am not ready to claim he is the next Emmitt but he is certainly better than Hambrick or George! ;-D
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:44 pm

I draw conclusions from this general principle:

More/Stronger depth = More competition for carries.
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Postby texasmouth » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:48 pm

Kensat30 wrote:I draw conclusions from this general principle:

More/Stronger depth = More competition for carries.


Then every back in the NFL will lose carries this season because the last time I checked, everyone had more than one RB on their roster.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:48 pm

texasmouth wrote:Everyone is drawing conclusions from 8 games. That is all we have to base opinions on. JJ doesn't need 30+ carries. In the games he got less than 30, they were playing from behind and throwing the ball more. When he did get carries he produced. I am not ready to claim he is the next Emmitt but he is certainly better than Hambrick or George! ;-D


no doubt - Im not trying to say JJ is a bad RB or anything along those lines. I have him ranked about 15th among RBs. My entire point is just to temper expectations - Ive seen a lot of rankings placing him as a top 10 fantasy RB, and I have to disagree. I am not saying DAL is a bad team, that Julie is a bad RB, that DAL wont run often, or anything like that.

A lot of times I feel homers stand up and defend what they feel is an attack on their players. Its simply not the case. Only Queen fans can rightfully feel slighted by my criticism - thats one sorry a$$ club right there. :-b

Look - adding depth at RB and landing ATrain and Barber to spell JJ was a great move by DAL - but it DOES negatively affect JJs fantasy aspect from the standpoint he should see fewer carries. Im not going to disagree that from a longterm perspective it will absolutely help JJ remain healthy - but again, thats not the argument.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:51 pm

Look - just to prove a point, I think the big knock against KJones is the fact that there are simply too many redzone targets in DET for him to get a lot of TDs - there - do you guys feel better now? ;-D
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Postby awwchrist » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:53 pm

No back in the NFL carries the ball 30 times a game over their schedule.

Last year, the top 10 backs who led the league in carries per game, did so at an average of 22.5


Hell, incorporate the receptions and just call it touches already.
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