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RB -> RB -> TE!!! Please tell me why I am nuts!!!

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RB -> RB -> TE!!! Please tell me why I am nuts!!!

Postby BGbootha » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:47 pm

Am I crazy, if you make the argument for RB scarcity that rockets the importance of drafting atleast two runningbacks in the first three picks! I mean most of us would agree that there are only a handful of players that belong in the first two rounds of a twelve team draft that aren't runningbacks.

How then can we ignore the insance scarcity of the TE position. I mean there are only two real high tight ends. Gates and Gonzo. Sure you can make an argument that Witten, Crumpler and possibly Shockey are valuable. But getting a Gates or Gonzo would be like another team posting a solid WR into their TE slot. The difference on any given week in your TE slot would be huge.

That being said, why do we believe in ignoring the TE position. I have now done three mock drafts, in two of them I took RB-RB-Gates in the first three rounds. Later I would still end up with quality QB, RB and back up RB. Heck my favorite team thus far I have mocked was SA-JJones-Gates-LJordan-Hass-Djack-Burleson. I will take that anyday.

I know this could be a freak and yeah some of the guys may have fell a few places, but give me a good reason why I should not draft Gates or Gonzo in the third. Why should I not plan on that and adjust accordingly!!!!!!
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Postby Supernick » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:48 pm

i think Heap is almost as good as Gonzo and Gates.
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Postby aussieboy » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:54 pm

The idea of Value Based Drafting is one that creates much controversy. I believe taking Gonzo in the 3rd is a great idea. I wouldnt take Gates that high this yr, but if you believe he will repeat last yrs numbers, then by all means take him in the third.

I remember I started a similar topic to this last season and it created quite a lot of debate, ill try and dig it up for you.
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Postby Ek » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:55 pm

The only negative is that TE is typically the one of the lowest scoring positions in FFL. Other than the occassional season like Gates had last year even the elite TEs don't put up as many points as many average RBs, WRs, and QBs. Therefore it's not as advantageous to have an elite at a less important position. You're not taking the Baltimore defense in the fourth and Vanderjagt or Vinateirri in the fifth :-o
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Postby VHawk15 » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:57 pm

Definitely not a horrible strategy, but I'd rather get an extra RB or a legit #1 WR and then pick up someone like Randy McMichael later on.
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Postby bagobonez » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:04 pm

I got J.Lewis, K.Jones, C.Johnson and then Gates. Definitely would not draft Gonzo or Gates over a true #1 like Moss, Owens, Holt, Chad, Harrison, or even Javon Walker.
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Postby BGbootha » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:23 pm

Ek wrote:The only negative is that TE is typically the one of the lowest scoring positions in FFL. Other than the occassional season like Gates had last year even the elite TEs don't put up as many points as many average RBs, WRs, and QBs. Therefore it's not as advantageous to have an elite at a less important position. You're not taking the Baltimore defense in the fourth and Vanderjagt or Vinateirri in the fifth :-o


OK so I went off and did some math, let me know if this makes sense to anyone!!! (all stats are Yahoo! default settings)

Last year Gates had 271pts and Gonzo had 251pts combined average out to 261 points . Now in a twelve team league you are going to start 12 TE. Now lets compare the top two TE to the middle starting TE (numbers 5/6/7) Shockey 158, E Johnson 152, J Wiggins 151, average out to be 153 pts.

There fore getting Gates or Gonzo would give you a 107 point advantage in a season, or in other words in a 15 week schedule you would have just over a 7 point advantage over half you league.

Now that sounds great, but now lets compare it to the WR position. So using the same idea in a basic 12 team league there will be a total of 36 starting WR. So in the TE bracket we looked at the top 16% of the TE, now lets do the same for WR. The top 6 WR last year averaged 299.5 pts. wil the middle of the pack numbers 15-20 averaged 220 pts. A difference of 79.5 points a season or 5.6 points a week.

Now that I am going, what about QBs (i know most of you are bored to death already and have stopped reading) Assuming that Manning and Culpepper are off the board, the average 3rd round pick will be the number 3-4 QB's overall in the third round would average 819 points. While the middle of the road QBs say number 7-9 would average 729 points. A difference of 90 points for the season or 6.4 points per week over your opponents.

So therefore.

Drafting a TE in rd 3 = 7.1 point advantage per week
Drafting a QB in rd 3 = 6.4 point advantage per week
Drafting a WR in rd 3 = 5.6 point per week advantage.


Now obviously everyone else in the league is going to pick in the third round. But if you took Gates or Gonzo, you could in essence be gaining more than a point on the other owners in the league.

*****There is a good chance none of this is even relavent and I wasted 20 minutes of my life. But then again, my fiance would argue that I wasted more than that on fantasy football.
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Postby VHawk15 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 12:04 am

The main problem with your research is that when you are trying to create VBD-esque tables, you need to use your own 2005 predictions, or at least someone else's. You can't use 2004 stats, because TE's have changed teams, and the situation simply isn't the same.

For instance, guys like Heath Miller, L.J. Smith, Ben Troupe, Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley, Jeb Putzier, etc. are expected have better production than last year. Also, Heap and Shockey will be fully recovered. In other words, much of your data is somewhat irrelevant because this year's TE group looks to be much improved over last season, changing average point per week formula you made.

Since the QB's and especially WR's situations have also changed in a year, the 2005 landscape looks to be much different as well.

Bottom line: when using VBD, you must use 2005 predictions (no matter how poor you think they may be) over 2004 stats.
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Postby gatorman1122 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 12:15 am

Bottom line: when using VBD, you must use 2005 predictions (no matter how poor you think they may be) over 2004 stats.

So...any1 wanna try the formula with Yahoo's 2005-2006 predictions?
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Postby BGbootha » Wed Jul 27, 2005 12:23 am

VHawk15 wrote:The main problem with your research is that when you are trying to create VBD-esque tables, you need to use your own 2005 predictions, or at least someone else's. You can't use 2004 stats, because TE's have changed teams, and the situation simply isn't the same.

For instance, guys like Heath Miller, L.J. Smith, Ben Troupe, Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley, Jeb Putzier, etc. are expected have better production than last year. Also, Heap and Shockey will be fully recovered. In other words, much of your data is somewhat irrelevant because this year's TE group looks to be much improved over last season, changing average point per week formula you made.

Since the QB's and especially WR's situations have also changed in a year, the 2005 landscape looks to be much different as well.

Bottom line: when using VBD, you must use 2005 predictions (no matter how poor you think they may be) over 2004 stats.


Yeah, that makes a great deal of sense! man I wish I would have thought about this before doing all that. Well now I got something to do tommorow.
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