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RB -> RB -> TE!!! Please tell me why I am nuts!!!

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Postby mrider » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:08 am

VHawk15 wrote:Definitely not a horrible strategy, but I'd rather get an extra RB or a legit #1 WR and then pick up someone like Randy McMichael later on.


Yep thats the way for me. ;-D
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:19 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
bellybrother wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:Taking Gonzo in the late third has never been a bad idea.... That's typically where he has gone for the last 3 years or so.... Gates in the third is a little more risky, considering that we really only have one year's worth of stats to evaluate him.... It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility that last year was a fluke.... Personally I would rather have Witten in the late fourth/early fifth than Gates in the mid-to-late third.... I think he stands just as much of a chance of putting up Gonzo-esque numbers in '05 as Gates does....


Then who is a better pick in the late 3rd if the top 7 WR's are gone? That's what keeps bringing me back to Gonzo or Gates. I don't have a problem with Witten in the late 4th or early 5th, but who to take late 3rd?


Gonzo is a fine pick.... Gates worries me some in the late third....

I think all of these non-RB's should go before him:

Manning
Culpepper
McNabb

Moss
Owens
Holt
Harrison
Chad Johnson
Andre Johnson
Horn
Wayne
Walker
Ward



I certainly wouldn't pass up any of those guys for Gates....


No way I'd grab AJ, Wayne, or Ward over Gates.

Wayne has the same knock Gates does....1 year. Only Wayne has better people around him threatening to take looks, is reliant on his QB repeating a 50 TD performance, and is at a position that will not offer as much value even if he does repeat last year's numbers (compared to Gates repeating his numbers last year).

Gates only has 1 great year behind him? AJ has none. Maybe the whole 3rd year breakout thing will hold true, but if it doesn't there are going to be a whole lotta people tremendously overpaying for a merely mediocre fantasy WR. At least Gates has shown what he can do, paying for AJ in the late 3rd is paying for pure potential, kind of like paying for Vick.

Ward had some great years...in a pass-happy offense. That offense has since made a complete 180 into a run-oriented scheme, and we saw last year that fantasy WR production out of that scheme isn't exactly great. Not only did Gates beat out Ward in value (TE vs. WR) last year, but he even beat him out (by quite a bit) in total points at a position that's meant to score fewer total points.

I agree with a lot of what has been said already. At the big positions (RB/WR/QB) it seems to me that when you're in a 12 teamer with people that know what they're doing, there's a HUGE dropoff at the middle of the 3rd round (after Horn/Walker/Westbrook type guys go off the board). I will gladly take Gonzo or Gates over the likes of the remaining players, which usually entails guys like ROY, Barlow, Wayne, Ward, AJ, and the next bevy of 4000 WRs that are all bunched up (Smith, Burleson, Djax, etc).
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:27 am

Free Bagel wrote:Gates only has 1 great year behind him? AJ has none. Maybe the whole 3rd year breakout thing will hold true, but if it doesn't there are going to be a whole lotta people tremendously overpaying for a merely mediocre fantasy WR. At least Gates has shown what he can do, paying for AJ in the late 3rd is paying for pure potential, kind of like paying for Vick.


I couldnt agree more. AJohnson has done NOTHING to warrant 3rd rd consideration. Simply look at his numbers: 1150 and 6 last yr.

IMO he is regularly one of the most overrated players in fantasy right now. This is saying nothing about his skill - I agree that he is very very talented. But talent doesnt always show up in the numbers, and fantasy is all about the numbers. 1150 and 6. :-t
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:41 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Gates only has 1 great year behind him? AJ has none. Maybe the whole 3rd year breakout thing will hold true, but if it doesn't there are going to be a whole lotta people tremendously overpaying for a merely mediocre fantasy WR. At least Gates has shown what he can do, paying for AJ in the late 3rd is paying for pure potential, kind of like paying for Vick.


I couldnt agree more. AJohnson has done NOTHING to warrant 3rd rd consideration. Simply look at his numbers: 1150 and 6 last yr.

IMO he is regularly one of the most overrated players in fantasy right now. This is saying nothing about his skill - I agree that he is very very talented. But talent doesnt always show up in the numbers, and fantasy is all about the numbers. 1150 and 6. :-t



Let's look at some career stats:


Andre Johnson

1st: 976 and 4
2nd: 1142 and 6


Marvin Harrison

1st: 836 and 8
2nd: 866 and 6


Chad Johnson

1st: 329 and 1
2nd: 1166 and 5



Andre's first two years rank right up there with some of the league's elite.... I don't know how you can say that he's not a pretty kick ass WR, when you consider the fact that he's only been in the league for 2 years....
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Postby gtabaplayr » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:44 am

Basically this thread just furthur illustrates how close 2nd and 3rd tier WR's are this year; no1 reall jumps out to me when I've been picking late in the 3rd and early in the 4th unless someone luckily falls to you. Basically if you are picking in the late first round you almost have to take Gates or Gonzo with your third round pick unless Horn somehow falls to you.
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Postby bellybrother » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:11 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Gates only has 1 great year behind him? AJ has none. Maybe the whole 3rd year breakout thing will hold true, but if it doesn't there are going to be a whole lotta people tremendously overpaying for a merely mediocre fantasy WR. At least Gates has shown what he can do, paying for AJ in the late 3rd is paying for pure potential, kind of like paying for Vick.


I couldnt agree more. AJohnson has done NOTHING to warrant 3rd rd consideration. Simply look at his numbers: 1150 and 6 last yr.

IMO he is regularly one of the most overrated players in fantasy right now. This is saying nothing about his skill - I agree that he is very very talented. But talent doesnt always show up in the numbers, and fantasy is all about the numbers. 1150 and 6. :-t



Let's look at some career stats:


Andre Johnson

1st: 976 and 4
2nd: 1142 and 6


Marvin Harrison

1st: 836 and 8
2nd: 866 and 6


Chad Johnson

1st: 329 and 1
2nd: 1166 and 5



Andre's first two years rank right up there with some of the league's elite.... I don't know how you can say that he's not a pretty kick ass WR, when you consider the fact that he's only been in the league for 2 years....


But is Carr gonna get him the ball? Of course he's immensely talented physically, but has Carr shown the kinda progression that would lead anyone to the assumption that even if Andre does make the leap, that Carr will be any better at getting the ball to him? If so, then Andre probably is the choice here, but I'm skeptical.
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Postby Mudd » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:34 am

bellybrother wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Gates only has 1 great year behind him? AJ has none. Maybe the whole 3rd year breakout thing will hold true, but if it doesn't there are going to be a whole lotta people tremendously overpaying for a merely mediocre fantasy WR. At least Gates has shown what he can do, paying for AJ in the late 3rd is paying for pure potential, kind of like paying for Vick.


I couldnt agree more. AJohnson has done NOTHING to warrant 3rd rd consideration. Simply look at his numbers: 1150 and 6 last yr.

IMO he is regularly one of the most overrated players in fantasy right now. This is saying nothing about his skill - I agree that he is very very talented. But talent doesnt always show up in the numbers, and fantasy is all about the numbers. 1150 and 6. :-t



Let's look at some career stats:


Andre Johnson

1st: 976 and 4
2nd: 1142 and 6


Marvin Harrison

1st: 836 and 8
2nd: 866 and 6


Chad Johnson

1st: 329 and 1
2nd: 1166 and 5



Andre's first two years rank right up there with some of the league's elite.... I don't know how you can say that he's not a pretty kick ass WR, when you consider the fact that he's only been in the league for 2 years....


But is Carr gonna get him the ball? Of course he's immensely talented physically, but has Carr shown the kinda progression that would lead anyone to the assumption that even if Andre does make the leap, that Carr will be any better at getting the ball to him? If so, then Andre probably is the choice here, but I'm skeptical.

Plindsey pretty much made the point, but I will just say it. You don't draft players on what they did LAST year. You draft on what there potential is for the upcoming season. The way AJ has progressed his first two years leads me to believe he will be an elite wr in the future, and the future could very well be this year.

That said, I would take a #1 WR over any TE except MAYBE Gonzo.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:48 am

bellybrother wrote:But is Carr gonna get him the ball? Of course he's immensely talented physically, but has Carr shown the kinda progression that would lead anyone to the assumption that even if Andre does make the leap, that Carr will be any better at getting the ball to him? If so, then Andre probably is the choice here, but I'm skeptical.



So you're saying that you feel Drew Brees is far more talented than David Carr? I'm not sure if I agree with that....
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Postby bellybrother » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:53 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
bellybrother wrote:But is Carr gonna get him the ball? Of course he's immensely talented physically, but has Carr shown the kinda progression that would lead anyone to the assumption that even if Andre does make the leap, that Carr will be any better at getting the ball to him? If so, then Andre probably is the choice here, but I'm skeptical.



So you're saying that you feel Drew Brees is far more talented than David Carr? I'm not sure if I agree with that....


No that's not what I said. But Brees has shown the ability to make Gates a fantasy stud...has Carr shown that ability to help Andre turn into a legitemit end of 3rd selection?

Andre is being drafted on potential. Gates would be drafted based on what he has ALREADY shown he can do. That's not to say he will again, but at least we know all the tools are in place for that to happen. Can we say the same in Andre's situation? Can Carr help Andre make that next step?
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Postby maddog60 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 12:03 pm

gtabaplayr wrote:Basically this thread just furthur illustrates how close 2nd and 3rd tier WR's are this year; no1 reall jumps out to me when I've been picking late in the 3rd and early in the 4th unless someone luckily falls to you. Basically if you are picking in the late first round you almost have to take Gates or Gonzo with your third round pick unless Horn somehow falls to you.


It also illustrates why picking early in the 1st this year is such a blessing. You don't have to deal with the dilhemma the late 3rd round pick represents this year.
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