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RB -> RB -> TE!!! Please tell me why I am nuts!!!

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Postby Ek » Wed Jul 27, 2005 12:27 pm

Well, I'm picking late in the first round of a keep-2 league (which is like a late third rounder), and based on these comments/research I'm going to strongly consider Gonzo. I was a little biased against him since none of the teams that have drafted him in my league have done very well, but looking back at it those squads have made a lot of other mistakes.

EVERY player is being drafted on potential (past success indicates the POTENTIAL to do well this year, but doesn't garuntee it).
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:05 pm

Mudd wrote:Plindsey pretty much made the point, but I will just say it. You don't draft players on what they did LAST year. You draft on what there potential is for the upcoming season. The way AJ has progressed his first two years leads me to believe he will be an elite wr in the future, and the future could very well be this year.

That said, I would take a #1 WR over any TE except MAYBE Gonzo.


really?

:-b

sorry - Im just messin with you. Of course no one is using last yrs numbers exclusively.

Personally I dont think AJ will put up #1 WR numbers because of his situation. I dont really care how talented he is - when the system calls for so many dumpoff passes and screens, it'll be tough for AJ to put up 12-1300yds and double digit TDs - the kind of numbers I need in a #1 WR. Also - the much tougher schedule this yr also plays into the consideration.
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Postby pangbones » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:09 pm

I would take Gonzo in the late 3rd round, but that is it. TE's aren't big fantasy producers. Why waste a high round pick on Heap or Shockey, 2 of the top 3 last year in a lot of peoples minds going into the season, look at what they ended up doing. I would rather take my chances on a top WR and then try to find a sleeper. Last year I drafted RB, RB, WR, QB, RB, WR. I got Gates in the 13th round!!! :-D
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Postby EthnicFury » Wed Jul 27, 2005 2:45 pm

first off, with caldwell back the chargers do have a better WR corps than the end of last season

also, if you're pickin late third, you gotta early 4th pick, at which one of those WRs will be availiable, and unless its 10/12/whatevers last in the 3rd and 4.1, gates might not be there, because more people will take him in the 4th anyway, even early...so if you're pickin late in the 3rd, i'd definitely grab gates and then immedialtey pick up a tier2 WR with my early 4th pick


also i've never been high on heap or shockey...both get injured too much, and shockey's NEVER produced to the level where i'd waste a draft pick on him before the 8th round...i'd rather throw down on a sleeper late, i got gates in the 11th last year in 2 different leagues (which led to my winning easily, i was 1st by almost 400 pts in one league and had tripled the last place's score)
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Jul 27, 2005 5:05 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Gates only has 1 great year behind him? AJ has none. Maybe the whole 3rd year breakout thing will hold true, but if it doesn't there are going to be a whole lotta people tremendously overpaying for a merely mediocre fantasy WR. At least Gates has shown what he can do, paying for AJ in the late 3rd is paying for pure potential, kind of like paying for Vick.


I couldnt agree more. AJohnson has done NOTHING to warrant 3rd rd consideration. Simply look at his numbers: 1150 and 6 last yr.

IMO he is regularly one of the most overrated players in fantasy right now. This is saying nothing about his skill - I agree that he is very very talented. But talent doesnt always show up in the numbers, and fantasy is all about the numbers. 1150 and 6. :-t



Let's look at some career stats:


Andre Johnson

1st: 976 and 4
2nd: 1142 and 6


Marvin Harrison

1st: 836 and 8
2nd: 866 and 6


Chad Johnson

1st: 329 and 1
2nd: 1166 and 5



Andre's first two years rank right up there with some of the league's elite....


So what? This is what I mean, the guys value is super high based on a pattern that may or may not mean anything. So some guys have had 2 good years and then busted out in their 3rd. There's also plenty of guys that had two good years and never busted out, or had two good years and still didn't bust out till later, heck even the examples you provided don't really work. You neglected to mention Marvin's 3rd year, which was 767/7, I doubt many people would be happy with that out of the 3rd round, and Chad didn't play much in his first year and broke out for his big year in his 2nd year as a starter, he had 1 good year and then broke out.

Believe me, I get the whole "if you wait until they've broken out you've already missed the boat" thing, I'm a big proponent of that, yet there's a time and a place for it. That whole motto only holds any merit because it holds the idea that you get the guy very cheaply compared to his value. If you take Lamont Jordan 1st overall and he breaks out for 1600/13, that still doesn't make it a good pick because you didn't really get any added value out of it.

Now let's say AJ does bust out and go for 1200/10, or 1300/11, or whatever it is. That moves his draft stock for next year up to what, early/mid 3rd round? So you just took an enormous risk on your #1 WR based on a pattern to gain a whole half a round worth of value.

In your examples, guys like CJ and Marvin were taken in round 6 or later, at that spot they offered good value. Getting AJ in the third is almost already paying his post-breakout price before he actually breaks out. And if he doesn't break out, well then you just majorly overpaid for a fantasy #3 WR.
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Postby bellybrother » Wed Jul 27, 2005 5:13 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Gates only has 1 great year behind him? AJ has none. Maybe the whole 3rd year breakout thing will hold true, but if it doesn't there are going to be a whole lotta people tremendously overpaying for a merely mediocre fantasy WR. At least Gates has shown what he can do, paying for AJ in the late 3rd is paying for pure potential, kind of like paying for Vick.


I couldnt agree more. AJohnson has done NOTHING to warrant 3rd rd consideration. Simply look at his numbers: 1150 and 6 last yr.

IMO he is regularly one of the most overrated players in fantasy right now. This is saying nothing about his skill - I agree that he is very very talented. But talent doesnt always show up in the numbers, and fantasy is all about the numbers. 1150 and 6. :-t



Let's look at some career stats:


Andre Johnson

1st: 976 and 4
2nd: 1142 and 6


Marvin Harrison

1st: 836 and 8
2nd: 866 and 6


Chad Johnson

1st: 329 and 1
2nd: 1166 and 5



Andre's first two years rank right up there with some of the league's elite....


So what? This is what I mean, the guys value is super high based on a pattern that may or may not mean anything. So some guys have had 2 good years and then busted out in their 3rd. There's also plenty of guys that had two good years and never busted out, or had two good years and still didn't bust out till later, heck even the examples you provided don't really work. You neglected to mention Marvin's 3rd year, which was 767/7, I doubt many people would be happy with that out of the 3rd round, and Chad didn't play much in his first year and broke out for his big year in his 2nd year as a starter, he had 1 good year and then broke out.

Believe me, I get the whole "if you wait until they've broken out you've already missed the boat" thing, I'm a big proponent of that, yet there's a time and a place for it. That whole motto only holds any merit because it holds the idea that you get the guy very cheaply compared to his value. If you take Lamont Jordan 1st overall and he breaks out for 1600/13, that still doesn't make it a good pick because you didn't really get any added value out of it.

Now let's say AJ does bust out and go for 1200/10, or 1300/11, or whatever it is. That moves his draft stock for next year up to what, early/mid 3rd round? So you just took an enormous risk on your #1 WR based on a pattern to gain a whole half a round worth of value.

In your examples, guys like CJ and Marvin were taken in round 6 or later, at that spot they offered good value. Getting AJ in the third is almost already paying his post-breakout price before he actually breaks out. And if he doesn't break out, well then you just majorly overpaid for a fantasy #3 WR.


That's what I wish I was eloquent enough to say.
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Postby Azrael » Thu Jul 28, 2005 6:23 pm

It's a real good strategy if you start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE. If you start more; I'd opt for drafting someone else later on like a Wittin, Clark, or McMike.
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