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Let's figure out these mid-round RBs

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Postby Kensat30 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:48 pm

There are different rankings I would use depending on how the first few rounds of my draft went(IE LJ bumped up to the front with Priest, or if I went RB heavy early I would take more of a gamble). These are my general rankings, but I have the players sorted into mini-tiers where I may jump to a seperate tier instead of just grabbing straight down the list.


1. Dunn - Gets his shots at the GL, solid #2 RB
2. Barlow - undervalued due to horrid o-line play last year, great matchups in NFC West
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3. Cadillac - risky due to rookie learning curve, should still be leading rusher/TD guy in Tampa.. highest upside next to LJ
4. Arrington - rookie learning curve, Dennis Green is unpredictable, appears the featured starter, still plenty of risk compared to Barlow/Dunn
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5. F.Taylor - verified stud with HUGE injury worries. Still worth a gamble this late.
6. Foster - injury riddled career, huge opportunity in a $$$ system
7. Bennett - one year wonder? talented enough to become a #1 RB if healthy
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8. LJ - ace in the hole, I might gamble on this guy, but usually not before I've picked someone above him (unless maybe I drafted Priest)
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9. Suggs - most talented RB in Cleveland by far, but they have RBs in numbers, and he's still in cleveland
10. Staley - don't like how Bettis comes in every time from inside the 5, quality #3 RB with little chance for good TD numbers
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11. Benson - has a lot of upside... but I'm really worried about how soon he can win the job. A RB that may not start until week 6 or later is a very risky #1 backup. Like a mini-LJ, except he's a jack in the hole instead of an ace
12. Henry - same as Benson but with less upside. I think it takes a C.Brown injury to cement him into the featured role and even then he may not produce like he did in Buffalo
13.C. Brown - He's a better RB than Henry.... except around the goalline. C.Brown is in the same spot as Henry but with less TDs
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14. R. Brown - stay far away from Ronnie Brown this season. I have him an another tier entirely due to the return of Ricky Williams. He really has no upside in my mind unless Ricky gets traded, and I don't see that happening. New coach, new schemes, new RB, Feeley at QB... everyone likes Saban but is the Dolphin's RB really that attractive anyways?
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Postby Ricky_Christ » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:35 pm

I'd just like to take a moment to thank the Cafe boys for providing this post. Nice job, guys! One of the best threads I've read this year. ;-D
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Postby Turnip » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:28 pm

1. Carnell Williams
He'll get his 25 carries a game and be a good fantasy #2.

2. Cedric Benson
He's a great power back, and I Benson/TJ will be about the same as Carnell/Pittman.

3. Michael Bennett
Onterrio is gone, and the backfield is still crowded. But they all have their roles. Bennett is going to be used a lot in passing formations, where he'll rack up fantasy points both by land and air.

4. JJ Arrington
Arrington will be the starter, but I think Shipp gets more carries than most think. Arrington can't block, and it's dangerous to leave him out there a lot until he learns how.

5. Kevan Barlow
I think he'll be in a committee with Gore shortly. Only 10-15 carries a game, but I think his YPC will go up with less pressure on him, and he'll still score 4 tds or so.

6. Ronnie Brown
Ricky Williams is returning. Otherwise he would be higher. Ricky's return will mean less numbers for him this season, but also less pressure and less early weardown.

7. Warrick Dunn
My favorite non-Bengal player, mainly because of what he does off the field. That said, he is getting older, and I expect Duckett to steal 5+ more carries from him than he did last year.

8. Duce Staley
A committee with Bettis. He'll get more yards, Bettis will get more TDs. Just like everyone says, but I think Bettis will get more of the carries than most expect.

9/10 Brown Henry
Don't worry Canacuna, I don't think they'll be the pits either. I think they'll split carries. Truthfully, I like Chris Brown as a better runningback, but his injury concerns pretty much make them equal in my eyes.

11. Deshaun Foster
Disagreeing with most of you on him. I think he is not a good runningback. Maybe he has potential, but in my opinion he has looked bad. I live in NC, so I am forced to see a lot of him, and I'm not impressed. I expect to see Shelton and Goings (yes, Goings) taking a lot of carries from Foster.

12. Larry Johnson
Johnson's only going to get 5-10 carries unless Holmes goes down. I expect Holmes to miss a couple games at least. Weeks when LJ is the starter will be great weeks, it's just a risk trying to guess how many weeks that will be.

13. Lee Suggs
He'll get more carries than Droughns, but not a lot many. I like Suggs better than Droughns, but he has to stay healthy, and score touchdowns. Playing for the Browns, the latter part is going to be tough.
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Re: Let's figure out these mid-round RBs

Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:48 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Barlow
Dunn
Foster
Bennett
Suggs
Staley
C. Brown
Henry
Arrington
Benson
R. Brown
LJ
Caddy



Cadillac Williams - the kid has got MAJOR skills, and Gruden backs him fully... He could EASILY be R.O.Y. this year....

Warrick Dunn - two words: Alex Gibbs.... Dunn has at least one more good year in him.... I think he loses some short yardage carries to Duckett, again, but he's still the most dangerous proven commodity of the rest of these guys.... He can go for 60 anytime he touches the ball....

Kevan Barlow - Another kid with skills.... He is only 1 year removed from being considered a top 15 pick... THe problem last year was that his line sucked, and the rest of the team kind of gave up around him.... Aside from that, San Fran was almost always playing from behind because of their embarrassing secondary..... If Barlow can get a decent line ahead of him, he can definitely perform.... It remains to be seen, though, if Alex Smith can generate a passing game strong enough to keep his running lanes open....

Duce Staley - At one point, about a third of the way through the season, Mr. Staley was the league's leading rusher in '04.... He'll still lose goal line carries to Bettis, and his health is a concern, but he's always a threat to put up 120 yards....

JJ Arrington - remains to be seen if he can take it to another level in the NFL, BUT he definitely showed that he's got moves in '04, and he'll definitely be the primary ball carrier for the Cards.... That's gotta count for something.....

Michael Bennett - All the skills in the world, but playing in a crowded backfield and has injury concerns....

Deshaun Foster - See Michael Bennett, but without as good of a supporting cast....

Lee Suggs - See Deshaun Foster, but without as good of a supporting cast....

Cedric Benson - this guy is scary with the football.... He's likely to take someone's head off once he gets moving.... But, the same could be said for Greg Jones coming into '04.... Benson is obviously going to be a bigger fantasy factor than Greg, but with Thomas Jones in the backfield, it remains to be seen if Chicago will use him as anything more than a glorified short yardage and goal line back in '05.....

Travis Henry - barring injury, I smell a 50/50 split in Tennessee...

Chris Brown - See Travis Henry, but keep in mind, Brown is the more likely to be injured, or not play through a minor injury...

Ronnie Brown - The Fins are likely still going to be pretty terrible, and after the 1-3 start they put on the board to begin the season, the fans in Miami will be calling for Ricky Williams.... And a nervous Nick Saban will give him to them as he sits back and thinks about what happened to Spurrier....

Larry Johnson - only holds fantasy value for Priest owners....
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Postby skibrett15 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:09 pm

Fred Taylor

If you count this guy in the list, he's gotta be at the top. He is a lock for 1200 yards and I think he'll be back with a fury from his injury. More TDs this year.

Dunn
Epitome of consistency, just not game to game. Is gonna get you some nice combined yardage and will score both on the ground and through the air.

Caddy
Best rookie in a great situation. should be heavily involved in passing game and get some TDs as well. About the same yardage as dunn but fewer TDs and more of a risk that he flops.
Arrington
Great situation, fast guy should score from further out but I worry about goaline touches with their prolific wrs and Shipp/hambrick/hambrick replacement.
Staley
So he got injured last year. Will lose goaline TDs but will definitely have more this year. What if Bettis gets injured?? Will be a bona fide beast.
Barlow
Better line this year, worse qb (IMO) at least to start off. Might be more involved in passing game, and should also get the TDs that he didn't last year. Yardage will still be an issue unless the passing game improves.
Foster
Huge risk, but is ranked this high as i expect him to have some stellar games, until he steps on a misplaced clump of dirt and breaks his femur.
Benson
Will likely not play significantly until week 4 or later. He's gonna get all the goaline looks eventually and the bears are going to rush the ball like mad. Could get 30+ carries a game (a la JJ) once he starts.
Ronnie
If he struggles early, he might not start once ricky returns. Likely will be a rbbc. Saban won't worry about rickys trade value, he's gonna play to win, but if the team struggles, he might adopt other motives.....
LJ
To those who say he has no value except to the priest owner you are wrong. Priest likely won't play a full season, and if he goes down, LJ will take over as the Top Fantasy back. Plus if the team struggles, the GM might push for more LJ and Vermeil might stop caring as he (and likely Priest) will be leaving after this year.
C. Brown
This entire team is gonna suck. Big time. Their defense is crippled, Mason is gone, Bennett is overrated as a fantasy and as an NFL player, Calico is an injury risk. McNair I think still has it, but we may never get a chance to see the running game with the shape their team is in. C. Brown I think is athletically and talent wise the better back. If the entire running game is toned down, then I see C. Brown as the better option than Henry. C. Brown can take it to the house any play so will be better with limited opportunities. Either way, i am avoiding this team like the plague. Hey, bad teams make good TEs, maybe troupe is the best option here.
Henry
See C. Brown, but unless he takes over goaline duties exclusively, I think he only has value as a handcuff to C.Brown. Even still, not a valuable one as the running game will be bad no matter who they throw in, there won't be enough opportunities.
Suggs
I expect this team to be all the bad the titans are, but with a worse passing game. Unless the defense can step up, Crennel will abandon the running game. Even worse, droughns will be a major factor and may win the job outright, and at best split carries and likely take goaline duty. Plus suggs is about the same injury risk that C. Brown is with worse upside. Easily the worst of these backs.
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Postby Flux » Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:12 pm

Does anyone have any info on Arringtons receiving skills? I dont know tons about him
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Postby bellybrother » Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:15 pm

Flux wrote:Does anyone have any info on Arringtons receiving skills? I dont know tons about him


No I don't, but i was assuming since Green liked him so much that he had some. He does like to use his RB's that way if I remember correctly.....and with Warner in the fold, could he be Tiki Jr this year? Warner really got alot of use outta the dumpoff with the Giants O-line like it was last year. Anybody see this? Not Tiki numbers from last year, but that kinda idea?
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Postby Flux » Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:18 pm

bellybrother wrote:
Flux wrote:Does anyone have any info on Arringtons receiving skills? I dont know tons about him


No I don't, but i was assuming since Green liked him so much that he had some. He does like to use his RB's that way if I remember correctly.....and with Warner in the fold, could he be Tiki Jr this year? Warner really got alot of use outta the dumpoff with the Giants O-line like it was last year. Anybody see this? Not Tiki numbers from last year, but that kinda idea?


I was thinking the same thing but have never actually seen him play. If he stays in on 3rd downs, his value is only helped. I dont really see ARI putting in Shipp or Hambrick in passing 3rd down situations, but I also dont know how well Arrington is in reading his blocks.

Hopefully someone can shed some better light on this for me
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Postby Turnip » Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:24 pm

According to http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2005/arrington_jj

He was "Not used much in a variety of roles in the passing game, but is adequate on flares and screens."

"Marginal route runner who rounds his cuts and struggles to track the ball over his head … More of a body catcher who leaves his feet to catch high and low balls"
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:33 pm

Flux wrote:Does anyone have any info on Arringtons receiving skills? I dont know tons about him



He's not an excellent pass catcher.... From what I know of him he's got a very bad habit of jumping or diving for balls unnecessarily.... Not the type of guy that's going to get a lot of yards after catch, which is what you expect out of a RB.....
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