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Postby Santacruzer » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:15 am

Sixxgunn wrote:Why has KC not tried to draft replacements? I mean, if the line is getting so old, why not replenish it while you still can? They have to see that the only reason they can succeed is due to that line, so that should be top priority. They still have the RB's, the TE and possibly the QB to continue for a few more years, it seems to make sense to me.

Their defense has been a priority as well, but they have been slow to draft them too.
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:16 am

toofunny wrote:Fact is if Holmes blows his knee out tomorrow, LJ will be a top 3 RB. He had 9 TDs in what 6 games? He could easily toss up 20 TDs. Now that's a backup with upside.


Actually it was 10 TDs in 5 games. Those last 5 games when he took over, he put up 2 TDs in all 5 of them.
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:51 am

Santacruzer wrote:Agreed M_Zimm. ;-D

Or even Edge's backup, Dominic Rhodes, or Ahman Green's, Davenport. There are quite a few guys out there that have proven to be able to carry the load when the starter goes down, at much cheaper prices. And because of all the things mentioned earlier in this post about KC, I am not sold on LJ being as "studly" in the future.
Exactly. I was drawing a blank on backup RBs with upside but IMO those guys have just as good of a chance at playing and in almost as good situations as Larry Johnson. And for FF value, you can probably get them at least 5 rounds later. If I'm gonna be taking a risk on a backup, it's not going to be a guy in the 5th round.
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:01 am

2005 or bust for the Chief's... After this run, they are rebuilding. Say bye to the o-line, bye to Vermeil, bye to Priest... everybody is out the door after this season. Only the spare parts of what used to be a well oiled machine will be left in place.

If you pass up Priest in the "do or die" year you will be very sorry, mark my words. 25 Touchdowns is probably the normal pace for the KC RB, I'm seeing an uptick in that production as the D finally comes around and provides more opportunities with better field position and more possession time.

Is it possible for a RB to score more touchdowns than the top QB? We'll see Priest challenge that theory if it's a down year for QBs and Vermeil utilizes him like I think he will. LJ could be a nice STARTING RB in games where KC blows out the opposition. I would seriously consider starting Priest + LJ in both Raider's game..
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All you guys not budging on spending an early pick on LJ, isn't it worthwhile to stash a potential stud on your bench? We're not talking Willis Mcgahee or Steven Jackson last season. Really no other backup RB in the league is going to score a TD every game, LJ has the potential to score MULTIPLE TDs every game. That kind of opportunity is unprecedented in the history of fantasy football. Dick Vermeil will do that for you.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:10 am

M_Zimm_ffc wrote:
Santacruzer wrote:Agreed M_Zimm. ;-D

Or even Edge's backup, Dominic Rhodes, or Ahman Green's, Davenport. There are quite a few guys out there that have proven to be able to carry the load when the starter goes down, at much cheaper prices. And because of all the things mentioned earlier in this post about KC, I am not sold on LJ being as "studly" in the future.
Exactly. I was drawing a blank on backup RBs with upside but IMO those guys have just as good of a chance at playing and in almost as good situations as Larry Johnson. And for FF value, you can probably get them at least 5 rounds later. If I'm gonna be taking a risk on a backup, it's not going to be a guy in the 5th round.


See - I gotta disagree with you guys.

KC's RB situation is not comparible to any other situation in the NFL. Not GBs, not Indys, not PIT, not BAL, not DEN, not SD - none of them compare to the upside KC's RB has. None of those systems regularly put up 20+ TDs from their RB. KC does. Thats why LJ is much more valuable than any of the other backups - his upside is simply much higher.
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:15 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:See - I gotta disagree with you guys.

KC's RB situation is not comparible to any other situation in the NFL. Not GBs, not Indys, not PIT, not BAL, not DEN, not SD - none of them compare to the upside KC's RB has. None of those systems regularly put up 20+ TDs from their RB. KC does. Thats why LJ is much more valuable than any of the other backups - his upside is simply much higher.
Personally, if Larry Johnson starts, no way I believe he's gonna put up 20 TDs too. Especially because of the problems on the line that they are going to have in a year or two. Blaylock was pretty good last year when he played too, do you think he's just as good as Larry or could it be the system? In a year or two when the system is gone, then we'll see if Larry is putting up 10 TDs in 5 games.

If he was gonna start this year I wouldn't hesitate drafting him because I know he'll produce in that system. But I don't want to take the chance of him sitting on the bench all year and then the line disentigrating and him not being as good because the situation is completely different. I'd rather take a chance on somebody in a situation that's looking uphill, rather that downhill; much later in the draft.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:24 am

Oh yeah - I completely agree there Zimm.

Im strictly talking about redraft league for this yr. All bets are off for future yrs.

Personally I think LJ is EXTREMELY overrated in terms of skill. I said that when the Chiefs drafted him and I maintain that stance.

However, say Holmes gets injured in the preseason and LJ plays every game - you seriously dont think he will put up 20 TDs in that system in 2005? I do - and it has almost nothing to do with skill.
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:48 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Oh yeah - I completely agree there Zimm.

Im strictly talking about redraft league for this yr. All bets are off for future yrs.

Personally I think LJ is EXTREMELY overrated in terms of skill. I said that when the Chiefs drafted him and I maintain that stance.

However, say Holmes gets injured in the preseason and LJ plays every game - you seriously dont think he will put up 20 TDs in that system in 2005? I do - and it has almost nothing to do with skill.
Sure, if Priest would get hurt and LJ would play all season, I'd bet he'd be a top 5 fantasy back by the end of the year, most definitely; and probably 20 TDs. What I'm saying is that I don't think he's any more talented than any of the other backup RBs in the league, and I don't think Priest is any more guaranteed to get hurt, possibly less. Last year was the first season he missed significant time due to injury since becoming a starter in the NFL. One season of injuries doesn't make a guy injury-prone, even if he is old. And I don't want to draft a guy in the 5th round that I think could easily go all season without starting.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Aug 03, 2005 12:18 pm

The thing is, talent almost never makes a difference to me when looking at fantasy. I can count on one hand the number of players who are so talented that they can overcome their situations: Moss, TO, and probably LT come to mind. Everything else is situational based. Thats why I endorse taking LJ - it has 0 to do with his skill, but everything to do with being the backup to the most important position in all of fantasy: the KC RB.

Now - dont get me wrong. I will not draft LJ in the 5th rd - where his aparant ADP says he usually goes. The problem for me? I almost never see him go that early in my mocks. He regualrly falls to the 8th-9th rd, and to me, I will take the chance on him then. He is the only backup I will draft.

Since all players have similar injury risks (obviously thats a general statement and can be tweaked for age, injury history, position, etc...), and since talent isnt really a factor, you have to look at his upside. His upside is worth drafting after the 7th rd - but probably not before.

You also have to understand that I rate Holmes as the #1 fantasy player as well - by quite a lot actually. Consistancy is fine, and I dont fault people who want LT or SA before Holmes, but for me, the upside and dominance of the KC RB is simply too great to pass up.
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