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Postby Turnip » Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:52 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Cmart just screams value this year. Everyone is so worried about the age thing every year, I'll keep taking him at tremendous value until he finally does fall off.

The really sick part is that his draft spot this year (after going 1697/12) is right around where it was last year (after going 1300/2).

Value value value.


First of all, the loss of your two strongside blockers is huge, Becht and McKenzie in particular deserve a lot of credit for last years success. The replacements are Adrian Jones (Who? Exactly.) and Jolley (a better receiver than Becht, but not the blocker Becht is)

This year it isn't completely the "same old age thing." 371 carries is a TON. Almost 40 more than the season before. That many carries affects players regardless of age. See Dickerson, Eddie George, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and my favorite example, Ricky Williams. When backs carry that much they consistently follow their performance up by getting injured or dropping off majorly.

I see a few options:

1. Curtis Martin suffers a major dropoff. RBBC.

2. Curtis Martin suffers a major injury. Blaylock is the featureback.

3. Curtis Martin suffers a minor dropoff and projects to what most people are projecting him as.

You can have your value, but I'm staying away. I think the better value lies in Blaylock, because of how late you can get him.
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Postby MadScott » Tue Aug 02, 2005 5:40 pm

I like your thinking Turnip and agree that Blaylock may well be where the value lies. My problem with Cmart, and I've stated it in several threads, is the work load, it's unprecedented. I just know that the year I draft him is when he will go off the cliff. The guy is in uncharted water.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 6:40 pm

Flux wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Cmart just screams value this year. Everyone is so worried about the age thing every year, I'll keep taking him at tremendous value until he finally does fall off.

The really sick part is that his draft spot this year (after going 1697/12) is right around where it was last year (after going 1300/2).

Value value value.


Yeah he is going to be a huge steal this year. Granted in keeper/dynast leagues his value drops, but he should still be solid. Matching last years #'s may be harder with a more pass oriented offense w/ a healthy Pennington and Coles back....but that also could lead to less pounding, more big runs, and a better ypc.

Like FB said, great value there, just like he was last year and like Tiki was last year as well.


I'm not seeing Martin in the 4th round and later like last year, this year he goes late 2nd, early 3rd if you're lucky. I see this as his proper value.

You guys screaming Martin is a value this year, aren't you guys concerned about the career year syndrome? Last year all the AFC East RBs (Dillon, Martin, Mcgahee) scored huge games against the weak weak weak NFC West... Martin AND Dillon had career years last year in terms of carries, yards, TDs, you name it.

Now I'm especially worried about Dillon and Martin this year because they are old and they both saw extremely heavy burdens. One year spikes in performance are not uncommon, but they should not be considered trends. It's not that either guy is going to get injured and fall apart or completely bust, but I could easily see a large decrease in ypc effectiveness. Ahman Green 2003/2004 is a prime example of this IMO. It's just really hard to reproduce such a strong season with such a huge workload, ESPECIALLY for an older RB...
---

Martin career ypc averages
2004 - 4.6
2003 - 4.2
2002 - 4.0
2001 - 4.5
2000 - 3.8
1999 - 4.0
1998 - 3.5
1997 - 4.2
1996 - 3.6
1995 - 4.0

So we're seeing that Martin either got better in his 10th year than ever before OR that has team was unusually good and provided for him like never before. I'm putting my money on the latter, especially when you consider how few long runs he had... That is a whole lot of consistent 4-6 yard gainers.... Was it Martin or the Jet's? Martin was a determined mofo going into last season, but I'm not hearing the same gushing details this year, I think he falls back to the norm.

----

Back to Ahman Green, he loses 2 guards, comes back down after a career year with injuries and poor performance, and it's the end of the world... He is 2 years removed from an 1800/15 TD performance, the similarities are astounding...

Now we see that Martin not only loses his strong side TACKLE, but the offense goes out and trades one of the best blocking TEs in the business for a pass catching TE. Not only is he coming off the career year, but he just lost his entire strong side blocking unit...

2004 Rush TDs:
Left - 3 TDs
Center - 2 TDs
Right - 5 TDs

----

Did I mention that the conservative 8 yard "keep the chain moving" offensive coordinator Paul Hackett is replaced with a "Take shots down the field" OC Heimerdinger? (Anyone remember Eddie "3.0ypc" George's days in Tennessee?) The New York Jet's are a team in flux offensively, who should see a much tougher schedule this year. Martin is coming off a career year

I'm under the opinion that Martin is OVERvalued as an early 2nd round pick, unless you assume either:

A) He gets a huge workload like last season
B) He has another career year in terms of ypc
C) He maintains his high TD levels

I expect none of these things to happen, Martin is a quality, "safe" #2 RB, but he's not going to win you any leagues in the 2nd or 3rd round.

315/1300/8, 40/250/0

4.1 ypc, average workload, average TDs
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Aug 02, 2005 7:07 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Back to Ahman Green, he loses 2 guards, comes back down after a career year with injuries and poor performance, and it's the end of the world... He is 2 years removed from an 1800/15 TD performance, the similarities are astounding...


Yet ironically, Ahman is still ranked ahead of Cmart. This is what I mean, there are some guys ranked well above Cmart the really have no business being so. His ceiling is as high as most of them, with a much better floor, and he's shown that he can do it before whereas the other guys may fade into oblivion like half of this tier of RBs seem to do every year.

And comparing Ahman and Cmart's "career" years really isn't even well, comparable. Cmart did not put up a career best in TDs, he bested his career best in yards by ~ 200, and his career best in ypc by 0.4.

Ahman's career year came with an improvement of TEN TD's, 500 yards, and 0.7ypc. Of course a guy is going to come down from those numbers.


I'm under the opinion that Martin is OVERvalued as an early 2nd round pick, unless you assume either:

A) He gets a huge workload like last season
B) He has another career year in terms of ypc
C) He maintains his high TD levels

I expect none of these things to happen, Martin is a quality, "safe" #2 RB, but he's not going to win you any leagues in the 2nd or 3rd round.

315/1300/8, 40/250/0

4.1 ypc, average workload, average TDs


Well for starters, I haven't seen him as an early second rounder. He usually goes off the board somewhere between 3.02-3.05.

I don't get these lists you always put at the end of your threads. You treat them like their mutually exclusive in that they have to do either A or B or C, and try and make them sound unatainable. Yet it's entirely possible pretty much every single time that they do a little of A, a little of B, and a little of C and end up doing just fine.

I'm usually all for avoiding being "safe" in fantasy football, because breakout players are ultimately what win championships, but when I can get a guy at this value that has just as high a ceiling as those "risky" guys, with just as good (if not better) a chance of reaching that ceiling, while at the same time having a significantly lower floor, that sounds like win/win/win/win to me.

It seems that this year the oldies are being undervalued more than ever. Guys like Cmart, Tiki, Dunn, Priest, Muhsin, etc offer tremendous value in redrafts where they're all going.

I always find the arguement about it being "the year" a guy is going to fall off funny, because the guy that is picked in their spot is almost always a guy who has a risk of never getting to a top level that is greater than the risk of the old guy having his "year" where he falls out of the top.

The chance that guys like Mcgahee, KJ, JJ, Jackson, Jordan, Bell, etc flop is just as big (if not bigger) than the chance that this is finally "the year" for the old guys.

I'm not saying whether that means a guy like Cmart should necessary be drafted ahead of them or not, but it seems that at the moment people cringe when they even hear him mentioned in the same sentence as them, which they shouldn't.
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Postby Slingblade » Tue Aug 02, 2005 7:11 pm

This gets talked about every year and C-Mart still does great. This guy is truly amazing. He will be 37 and still going over 1000k yards...well maybe not when he is that old. But I will have to see Martin play poorly...until then i'll still project him as a solid #2 RB in redraft leagues, and he can be had...late.
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Postby UNDEFEATED » Tue Aug 02, 2005 7:20 pm

If Jolley, Coles, and the *sleeper* Justin Mc do recieve all the attention that most including myself are predicting.

Its only natural for CMart to get fewer carries/receptions=less production. If the first statement holds true.

I still expect him to be off the board(12-teamer) in the mid-2-late second round. Avoiding Cmart in the 3rd round is retarded.
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Postby aussieboy » Tue Aug 02, 2005 8:55 pm

It seems that this year the oldies are being undervalued more than ever. Guys like Cmart, Tiki, Dunn, Priest, Muhsin, etc offer tremendous value in redrafts where they're all going.


Sure they're value for where theyre going IF they produce last years numbers. I think most people just dont see these guys (apart from Priest) who produced career years after being in the league so long to repeat those numbers.

I think guys like Tiki, Cmart, Mush etc are going right where they should be. If they have career record yrs like they did last yr, then sure value is there to be had. I see these guys returning back down to their career averages making their ADP very reasonable.
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Postby Wesley Walker » Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:16 pm

Turnip wrote:He's a 32 year old RB.


That's about 5 months older than Priest Holmes, who's missed far more games than C-Mart over the past couple of years. He's been downgraded by one or two spots in people's fantasy ratings. So why has C-Mart been downgraded so much more? Well, first of all, he hasn't exactly been downgraded. Last year at this time, everyone thought he was too old and finished, and his value was about the same as it is now.

TitaniumTitan wrote:This guy is getting pretty old, I dont think he has much left in him. Him and Marshall Faulk are out of there prime. On the otherhand I think the Jets should have kept LaMont Jordan, I think he has a lot of potential to become a big star.


Let's examine that statement. Last year, C-Mart rushed for 1697 yards, which is 127% of his career average. Faulk rushed for 774 yards last year -- 71% of his career average. C-Mart's TD production was up 47% from his career average. Faulk's was down 67%. So who's on the decline? Past his peak? This is C-Mart's peak. Right now. You're watching it. If you miss him in the draft, then shame on you.

As for LaMont, let's talk at season's end.

Free Bagel wrote:Cmart just screams value this year. Everyone is so worried about the age thing every year, I'll keep taking him at tremendous value until he finally does fall off.

The really sick part is that his draft spot this year (after going 1697/12) is right around where it was last year (after going 1300/2).

Value value value.


Wise man. I enjoy a good bagel and I've always admired your keen analytic skills, F.B.

Now Kensat30 is talking reason here too. But let's point out that C-Mart's average draft position is 33.2, or round 3.7 in Yahoo leagues. He's ranked as the 14th best RB in the Cafe's June player rankings. So he's still undervalued, as I see it.

This comparison to Ahman is illuminating. Last year, I was predicting C-Mart would have a better year than Ahman. I argued that Ahman's numbers would return to something like his career averages (downward), and that so would Curtis's -- particularly his TD production (upward).

By that same token, I'd argue that this year C-Mart's numbers will again return towards normal (downwards). But his season could be 75% of what it was last year and he's still be a great value in the early 2nd round. That part is acedemic, I guess, because I'd really not think about drafting him before the middle of the second round because he's so undervalued right now.

As far as Becht's departure hurting C-Mart: get real. Becht was a huge liability on that team. A disaster his last two seasons. McKenzie will be missed, but Adrian Jones is no slouch.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:19 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Back to Ahman Green, he loses 2 guards, comes back down after a career year with injuries and poor performance, and it's the end of the world... He is 2 years removed from an 1800/15 TD performance, the similarities are astounding...


Yet ironically, Ahman is still ranked ahead of Cmart. This is what I mean, there are some guys ranked well above Cmart the really have no business being so. His ceiling is as high as most of them, with a much better floor, and he's shown that he can do it before whereas the other guys may fade into oblivion like half of this tier of RBs seem to do every year.

And comparing Ahman and Cmart's "career" years really isn't even well, comparable. Cmart did not put up a career best in TDs, he bested his career best in yards by ~ 200, and his career best in ypc by 0.4.

Ahman's career year came with an improvement of TEN TD's, 500 yards, and 0.7ypc. Of course a guy is going to come down from those numbers.


Yeah except that Ahman's average season is much better than Curtis Martin's average season:

2000- #5 RB, 4.5 ypc
2001- #3 RB, 4.6 ypc
2002- #13 RB, 4.3 ypc
2003- #3 RB, 5.3 ypc
2004- #13 RB, 4.5 ypc

Ahman Green has never finished below the #13th RB as a starter, and is usually right up in the top5 range. Besides, I'd hate to see someone that amassed 2200+ total yards and 20 TDs and it wasn't a big improvement over their previous best... That's probably one of the 10 best seasons in fantasy history IMO.



I'm under the opinion that Martin is OVERvalued as an early 2nd round pick, unless you assume either:

A) He gets a huge workload like last season
B) He has another career year in terms of ypc
C) He maintains his high TD levels

I expect none of these things to happen, Martin is a quality, "safe" #2 RB, but he's not going to win you any leagues in the 2nd or 3rd round.

315/1300/8, 40/250/0

4.1 ypc, average workload, average TDs


Well for starters, I haven't seen him as an early second rounder. He usually goes off the board somewhere between 3.02-3.05.

I don't get these lists you always put at the end of your threads. You treat them like their mutually exclusive in that they have to do either A or B or C, and try and make them sound unatainable. Yet it's entirely possible pretty much every single time that they do a little of A, a little of B, and a little of C and end up doing just fine.



So what are you projecting for Curtis Martin? What kind of yards per carry, total carries, and touchdown numbers are you expecting? You do realize that 2004 was Curtis Martin's career year right? I'm just saying that in order for him to have value in this year's draft (as a late 2nd, early 3rd round RB), he would need to either maintain the very high ypc with his normal amount of carries and touchdowns. Or he would need to get a lot of carries with his normal ypc and touchdowns. Or he would need to a high amount of touchdowns with his normal carries and yards per carry.

When you look at a player with a 10 year career, it's much easier to spot a sipke in production than with a younger player. To me, it's obvious that Martin had a spike in every single category that matters in fantasy.. and I expect them all to normalize next season. If you are projecting value for Martin, which category do you expect him to maintain at a high level ?(compared to his career averages)


I'm usually all for avoiding being "safe" in fantasy football, because breakout players are ultimately what win championships, but when I can get a guy at this value that has just as high a ceiling as those "risky" guys, with just as good (if not better) a chance of reaching that ceiling, while at the same time having a significantly lower floor, that sounds like win/win/win/win to me.


Again Martin is a 10-year veteran, how much of a ceiling are you going to project for him versus relative unknowns who could be the next Edge?

It seems that this year the oldies are being undervalued more than ever. Guys like Cmart, Tiki, Dunn, Priest, Muhsin, etc offer tremendous value in redrafts where they're all going.


I think Cmart and Tiki are going for proper value (following career years), while Dunn and Priest are going at a discount. Muhsin has not been productive throughout his career and seasonally undervalued so he is not approriate to this discussion IMO.

I always find the arguement about it being "the year" a guy is going to fall off funny, because the guy that is picked in their spot is almost always a guy who has a risk of never getting to a top level that is greater than the risk of the old guy having his "year" where he falls out of the top.

The chance that guys like Mcgahee, KJ, JJ, Jackson, Jordan, Bell, etc flop is just as big (if not bigger) than the chance that this is finally "the year" for the old guys.

I'm not saying whether that means a guy like Cmart should necessary be drafted ahead of them or not, but it seems that at the moment people cringe when they even hear him mentioned in the same sentence as them, which they shouldn't.


I think we're arguing different points here. No one has stated that Martin is going to fall off a cliff.. unless you consider him regressing back from his career year to his normal levels cliff diving. What factors do you consider in thinking that Martin can sustain his previous place as a perennial top10 RB? Were 2002 and 2003 flukes?
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Postby Wesley Walker » Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:24 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Yeah except that Ahman's average season is much better than Curtis Martin's average season...


Career averages:

C-Mart has 1336 rushing yards per year.
Ahman has 1025.

C-Mart has 9.5 total TDs per year.
Ahman's got 8.85.
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