C-mart - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

C-mart

Moderator: Football Moderators

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:28 pm

Wesley Walker wrote:
As far as Becht's departure hurting C-Mart: get real. Becht was a huge liability on that team. A disaster his last two seasons. McKenzie will be missed, but Adrian Jones is no slouch.


I may have overstated Becht's importance as a blocker. But it was more of an emphasis on how BAD Doug Jolley is in that department. I mean seriously, this guy can run routes and catch the ball, but if you think he's gonna block anyone other than a CB effectively, you've got another thing coming.
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:47 pm

TitaniumTitan wrote:This guy is getting pretty old, I dont think he has much left in him. Him and Marshall Faulk are out of there prime.


While I agree than Faulk is well past his prime, the part about Martin being past his prime completely discredits your statement. The guy just won the rushing title last season, but all of the sudden he's out of his prime? Give me a break. :-t
Image
Dr. Duran Duran
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterCafecasterTrivia Time Trial ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14333
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Room 7609

Postby Free Bagel » Tue Aug 02, 2005 10:10 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Again Martin is a 10-year veteran, how much of a ceiling are you going to project for him versus relative unknowns who could be the next Edge?


Well, to put it simply, wouldn't 1900/14 be pretty close to the ceiling of guys like JJ/Rudi/KJ/Jordan that are going ahead of him? Obviously Cmart's ceiling is that high since he just did it a few months ago, even if repeating it is unlikely.

Kensat30 wrote:I'm just saying that in order for him to have value in this year's draft (as a late 2nd, early 3rd round RB), he would need to either maintain the very high ypc with his normal amount of carries and touchdowns. Or he would need to get a lot of carries with his normal ypc and touchdowns. Or he would need to a high amount of touchdowns with his normal carries and yards per carry.


Even if Cmart heads all the way back down to his career averages, I would say that 1600/9 is pretty solid out of your 3rd round pick. One thing to keep in mind is that before his 2003 season, Martin was being drafted early 2nd/late 1st based on those same career averages that you're now saying would not be worth a 3rd round pick.

Personally, I think his numbers this year will end up somewhere in between his numbers from last year and his career averages. Those numbers would easily land him in the top 10 amongst RBs, while being drafted well outside of it.

Kensat30 wrote:I think we're arguing different points here. No one has stated that Martin is going to fall off a cliff.. unless you consider him regressing back from his career year to his normal levels cliff diving.


Actually you kind of mentioned my point in that paragraph. As I mentioned above, I think his ceiling is right around the same spot as the unproven guys ahead of him, but his floor is much lower. As you mentioned, no one is expecting him to fall off a cliff, but would anyone really be surprised if at the end of the year 2 of KJ/JJ/Mcgahee/Jordan/Bell weren't in the top 20 RBs? Frankly I would be much more surprised if all of them were, since those 2nd round risky RBs always include a handful that don't pay off (think Barlow/Henry/Bennett last year).
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

Postby Turnip » Tue Aug 02, 2005 11:31 pm

As far as Becht's departure hurting C-Mart: get real. Becht was a huge liability on that team. A disaster his last two seasons. McKenzie will be missed, but Adrian Jones is no slouch.


From what I've heard, Adrian Jones should not be starting for any O-line. And I've heard that Jolley is not as good a blocker as Becht, as bad as they both may be.

That's about 5 months older than Priest Holmes, who's missed far more games than C-Mart over the past couple of years. He's been downgraded by one or two spots in people's fantasy ratings.


The main point is the combination of the age and last year's carries, and loss of strongside blocking. Not just the fact that he is old. I personally think that Martin at the end of the 2nd round is just right. Priest is too high for me.

And you're very right about Martin being at his peak. I think he's at it too. And the descent from the peak will be a sharp one. I will still draft him if he's the best player available, and just hold my breath and make sure to grab Blaylock.

I think we're arguing different points here. No one has stated that Martin is going to fall off a cliff.. unless you consider him regressing back from his career year to his normal levels cliff diving.


I suggest exactly that he's going to fall off a cliff soon.
Turnip
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 1283
Joined: 21 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: NC State or Winston-Salem, NC

Postby MadScott » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:08 am

Free Bagel wrote:I always find the arguement about it being "the year" a guy is going to fall off funny, because the guy that is picked in their spot is almost always a guy who has a risk of never getting to a top level that is greater than the risk of the old guy having his "year" where he falls out of the top.

The chance that guys like Mcgahee, KJ, JJ, Jackson, Jordan, Bell, etc flop is just as big (if not bigger) than the chance that this is finally "the year" for the old guys.

I'm not saying whether that means a guy like Cmart should necessary be drafted ahead of them or not, but it seems that at the moment people cringe when they even hear him mentioned in the same sentence as them, which they shouldn't.


http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... 918#864918

Me wrote:To me it's the difference in their "football age". Martin has toted the rock 3298 times as of last season, giving him the 4th highest amount of carries in NFL history. That's not even counting the 460 times he's caught the ball. Historically speaking, he's in pretty much uncharted water.


Quick goat math will tell you that he's touched the ball damn neared 3800 times! 4th most carries and I assume that he's hovering around the same level as far as total touches. I don't wish injury on the man, but odds of injury continue to increase with age and touches. He's getting really high on both. Why is it ""funny" to ignore these factors Bagel? I think it's good common sense.

Also, there was this http://www.fantasysharks.com/artman/pub ... e_1169.htm that talks about RB decline in FF points with age.

Image

Age 32 this year? Doesn't look like a good trend to me.
Image
I like simple pleasures, like butter in my ass, lollipops in my mouth. That's just me.
MadScott
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerSweet 16 SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5924
Joined: 27 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Wesley Walker » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:36 am

Turnip wrote:The main point is the combination of the age and last year's carries, and loss of strongside blocking. Not just the fact that he is old. I personally think that Martin at the end of the 2nd round is just right. Priest is too high for me.


He hasn't lost strongside blocking, though. I'm telling you, Becht was hapless. Even as a blocker. Jolley may not be a great blocker, but it's no great loss. Jones is a right tackle, and he is fine, fine specimen. Big, strong guy, good feet, hard worker, top prospect coming out of Kansas. And one thing that hasn't changed is Jerald Sowell, who is an exceptionally good blocker, even given what he is -- a blocking, pass-catching fullback.

MadScott wrote:Age 32 this year? Doesn't look like a good trend to me.


He may be 32, but your chart is pretty near meaningless since C-Mart has already showed himself to be bucking the trend. His best years, exoressed in the age he was at the time have been like so, in order: 31, 28, 22, 26, 30. That's in terms of rushing yards. The age thing is a pretty bogus argument unless it can be shown that there's any sort of downward trend. This, of course, cannot be shown. So guessing as to when "age is going to catch up with him" is just that, guessing. All evidence suggests he's stronger than ever.

And why only C-Mart? Again, Priest is the same age. Why aren't people talking like this about Priest? And Priest has had injuries the past two seasons.
Wesley Walker
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 1687
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 11 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Seattle

Postby Free Bagel » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:29 am

I certainly don't think you should ignore age and carries and whatnot MadScott, and I don't think I was implying that. My point is that people have been saying that the last couple years already, and how is the probability of them finally being right this year any greater than the probability that KJ/JJ etc mirror a William Green (top 5 second half of their rookie year and then well, you know the rest), or that Jordan mirrors a Barlow/Zeroueue/Wheatley or any one of a thousand other RBs that have gone through the same situation as him and turned into nothing?
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 03, 2005 12:23 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Again Martin is a 10-year veteran, how much of a ceiling are you going to project for him versus relative unknowns who could be the next Edge?


Well, to put it simply, wouldn't 1900/14 be pretty close to the ceiling of guys like JJ/Rudi/KJ/Jordan that are going ahead of him? Obviously Cmart's ceiling is that high since he just did it a few months ago, even if repeating it is unlikely.

Can't say what JJ and KJ ceiling are going to be considering they haven't even played a full season yet. I have KJ well ahead of Martin and JJ well behind, but that belongs in another thread.

Rudi Johnson went for 1600/12 in his first season as starter against a tough schedule, it would not be impossible for him to reach those levels. I have Rudi one slot above Martin on my cheatsheet.

Lamont is generally drafted after Martin in mocks, and he hasn't played a full season as starter either. Just look at the RB production on Minnesota the past couple years to see what Lamont could potentially do as the featured RB in Oakland. Again I have Lamont lower than Martin on my cheatsheet but that belongs in another thread as well.

The point is that none of these RBs have established themselves as guys you can pinpoint a career year when you see it, you can't really even predict a career average. Martin reached that career year last year, do you agree with me? Highly unlikely he repeats or exceeds those levels.. As for these other RBs, it's almost a given that all of them except Rudi Johnson are going to produce significantly more this season... how much more? No one really knows until the end of the season.

Martin has 10 full years in the NFL and he has only reached the 1900/14 level once. His career is the epitome of health and rock solid production from your 300 carry RB. But we don't know that these other RBs won't be good to go up into the elite 2000+/10+ range. For Martin that type of production is EXTREMELY unlikely, considering his ten year high fell just short of that and he is in the twilight of his career. The other RBs you listed have that potential.

Kensat30 wrote:I'm just saying that in order for him to have value in this year's draft (as a late 2nd, early 3rd round RB), he would need to either maintain the very high ypc with his normal amount of carries and touchdowns. Or he would need to get a lot of carries with his normal ypc and touchdowns. Or he would need to a high amount of touchdowns with his normal carries and yards per carry.


Even if Cmart heads all the way back down to his career averages, I would say that 1600/9 is pretty solid out of your 3rd round pick. One thing to keep in mind is that before his 2003 season, Martin was being drafted early 2nd/late 1st based on those same career averages that you're now saying would not be worth a 3rd round pick.

Personally, I think his numbers this year will end up somewhere in between his numbers from last year and his career averages. Those numbers would easily land him in the top 10 amongst RBs, while being drafted well outside of it.



I think after the below average 2003 season, following another "poor" 2002 season, people realized that Martin started the decline of his career and was no longer the perennial top10 RB he used to be. He was being drafted late 2nd/early 1st as a guy that could safely produce #8-#12 RB numbers in 2003, but probably wasn't turning into a top5 RB, that didn't happen.

Now after 2004 there is a glimmer of hope that Martin has regained his old form to be a safe top10 RB pick, but I feel that a late 2nd is more appropriate for a guy who has had one solid season after two seasons of decline. You ever heard the saying " a candle burns brightest right before it goes out", kinda my feelings on Martin and his season last year. Wouldn't be surprised if Martin failed to match his career averages or even his 3 year averages when you include the career year...

1600/7

Now if he hits that mark it's solid production, but I think in order for Martin to produce value as a late 2nd round pick he needs to put up better than average numbers. Lots of RBs are going to hover around 180-200 fantasy points, if Martin wants to produce value he needs to get up in the 230+ range and get some seperation from the other RBs, otherwise he is just your safe RB#2. He could potentially have 2004 upside but there is also the potential 2003 season downside in there. You look at the career year and the career averages, but that's only the positive aspect of Martin. Look in the recent past and you see that Martin has a much lower floor.
---

When you look at the big picture I think it's far more likely that Martin produces closer to his 2002 season than the 2004 season. I believe that his is ceiling IS lower than other RBs around him and that he is NOT a mortal lock for even top15 numbers that you seem to be suggesting. He is capable of busting just like the unprovens and the younger players going ahead of him. Martin could even be a potentially higher risk RB if you choose to consider his age, workload, offensive shakeup, etc.

Kensat30 wrote:I think we're arguing different points here. No one has stated that Martin is going to fall off a cliff.. unless you consider him regressing back from his career year to his normal levels cliff diving.


Actually you kind of mentioned my point in that paragraph. As I mentioned above, I think his ceiling is right around the same spot as the unproven guys ahead of him, but his floor is much lower. As you mentioned, no one is expecting him to fall off a cliff, but would anyone really be surprised if at the end of the year 2 of KJ/JJ/Mcgahee/Jordan/Bell weren't in the top 20 RBs? Frankly I would be much more surprised if all of them were, since those 2nd round risky RBs always include a handful that don't pay off (think Barlow/Henry/Bennett last year).


How did Martin payoff in 2003? 2002? I'm missing how he was a "safe" 2nd round RB in those years. That right there should be your risk factor.
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 03, 2005 12:52 pm

Wesley Walker wrote:
Turnip wrote:The main point is the combination of the age and last year's carries, and loss of strongside blocking. Not just the fact that he is old. I personally think that Martin at the end of the 2nd round is just right. Priest is too high for me.


He hasn't lost strongside blocking, though. I'm telling you, Becht was hapless. Even as a blocker. Jolley may not be a great blocker, but it's no great loss. Jones is a right tackle, and he is fine, fine specimen. Big, strong guy, good feet, hard worker, top prospect coming out of Kansas. And one thing that hasn't changed is Jerald Sowell, who is an exceptionally good blocker, even given what he is -- a blocking, pass-catching fullback.

MadScott wrote:Age 32 this year? Doesn't look like a good trend to me.


He may be 32, but your chart is pretty near meaningless since C-Mart has already showed himself to be bucking the trend. His best years, exoressed in the age he was at the time have been like so, in order: 31, 28, 22, 26, 30. That's in terms of rushing yards. The age thing is a pretty bogus argument unless it can be shown that there's any sort of downward trend. This, of course, cannot be shown. So guessing as to when "age is going to catch up with him" is just that, guessing. All evidence suggests he's stronger than ever.

And why only C-Mart? Again, Priest is the same age. Why aren't people talking like this about Priest? And Priest has had injuries the past two seasons.


Because Priest scores 2 TDs a game.
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 03, 2005 12:55 pm

Wesley Walker wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Yeah except that Ahman's average season is much better than Curtis Martin's average season...


Career averages:

C-Mart has 1336 rushing yards per year.
Ahman has 1025.

C-Mart has 9.5 total TDs per year.
Ahman's got 8.85.



Not only did Ahman post better per carry yardage numbers than Martin throughout their careers, he was more heavily involved in the receiving game.

It's easy to look past Ahman's receiving numbers and his prowess for scoring on TD passes and declare Martin the better rusher. But unfortunately receiving stats count in fantasy football.

Cmart - 1657 total yards/10 years as starter
Ahman - 1807 total yards/5 years as starter

Cmart - 9.5 total touchdowns
Ahman - 12.2 total touchdowns
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 21:19 hours
(and 35 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact