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The Fantasy Football Dark Spot: Tight End

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Postby Santacruzer » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:56 am

The guy I have been targetting late is Cooley (LJ Smith, who I have rated a little higher, has not lasted too long in the drafts that I have done).

I do have to say that I was very suprised to see how much action Jeramy Stevens was getting the other night. I'm not sure if that is a sign of things to come, but if he does see that much playing time, and is targetted that much, he will finally break out. Does anyone know if Itula Mili is injured or why he wasn't getting the playing time?
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Postby Matthias » Fri Aug 26, 2005 7:12 am

Hugh M. Griz wrote:I reached for Gonzo in the early 4th round last year, figuring his numbers would be head and shoulders above the competition. Which strategy was wasted when I got Gates in the 13th.


you're not typing that with a straight face, are you? come on. you can say it... you were laughing. you catch one of the most productive seasons, ever, by a tight end in the 13th round and so figure that makes the whole position a crap shoot. i guess if you drafted fred taylor in the first and reuben droughs or mewelde moore in the fourteenth, that would mean you shouldn't draft a running back until the very end?

gates looked good in the games he played at the end of 2003. (i saw him play against the vikings, thought he was really smooth, and so picked him up in every draft i was in last year). but he was also tapped by at least half of the draft gurus as a high upside, many of the times top-5 te. he didn't come from nowhere and he shouldn't have been there in the 14th round. even last year.

the position is becoming one that actually yields consistent points. even outside of tony gonzalez. if you decide to stick to what you've always done, and just get whatever te is available at the end, you're giving up 10 points/game. just throwing them away. evolve or die.
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Postby benm3218 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:19 am

Matthias wrote:
Hugh M. Griz wrote:I reached for Gonzo in the early 4th round last year, figuring his numbers would be head and shoulders above the competition. Which strategy was wasted when I got Gates in the 13th.


you're not typing that with a straight face, are you? come on. you can say it... you were laughing. you catch one of the most productive seasons, ever, by a tight end in the 13th round and so figure that makes the whole position a crap shoot. i guess if you drafted fred taylor in the first and reuben droughs or mewelde moore in the fourteenth, that would mean you shouldn't draft a running back until the very end?

gates looked good in the games he played at the end of 2003. (i saw him play against the vikings, thought he was really smooth, and so picked him up in every draft i was in last year). but he was also tapped by at least half of the draft gurus as a high upside, many of the times top-5 te. he didn't come from nowhere and he shouldn't have been there in the 14th round. even last year.

the position is becoming one that actually yields consistent points. even outside of tony gonzalez. if you decide to stick to what you've always done, and just get whatever te is available at the end, you're giving up 10 points/game. just throwing them away. evolve or die.


You don't have a clue what you are talking about. Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates are in a class by themselves.

TEs as we all know, catch a relatively small amount of passes primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there isn't a great deal of variance usually between the 4th best TE and the 12th best.

2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)
2002 -- 4th (91 points), 12th (63 points) = 28 points difference (1.75 per game)
2001 -- 4th (93 points), 12th (75 points) = 18 points difference (1.13 per game)
2000 -- 4th (96 points), 12th (61 points) = 34 points difference (2.13 per game)
5 YR AVG -- 4th (93 points), 12th (67 points) = 26 points difference (1.63 per game)

So, once you get past the big TEs, you're gaining a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

Evolve or die?...... very melodramatic. :-)
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Postby irishclown » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:25 am

Troupe McNair always liked thorwing to TEs and I think this guys got best chance to be next Gates


I guess you read the Article on Troupe in the ESPN FF Magazine, they say the same thing.

I agree, Troupe could be a sleeper.

As for my non sleeper, sleeper pick. I think Whitten will be AWESOME this year, with the god awful recievers in Dallas, and Bledsoe (who loves throwing to his TE) I think he may have his best year by far.

On a side note, I have heard from Patriots Camp that Ben Watson is "silly" good, and runs by DB's like they aren't there.
I would never draft him though, because he'll split time with Graham. But ya never know.
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Postby Matthias » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:48 am

benm3218 wrote:You don't have a clue what you are talking about. Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates are in a class by themselves.

TEs as we all know, catch a relatively small amount of passes primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there isn't a great deal of variance usually between the 4th best TE and the 12th best.

2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)
2002 -- 4th (91 points), 12th (63 points) = 28 points difference (1.75 per game)
2001 -- 4th (93 points), 12th (75 points) = 18 points difference (1.13 per game)
2000 -- 4th (96 points), 12th (61 points) = 34 points difference (2.13 per game)
5 YR AVG -- 4th (93 points), 12th (67 points) = 26 points difference (1.63 per game)

So, once you get past the big TEs, you're gaining a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

Evolve or die?...... very melodramatic. :-)


nice stats.

i would also offer up, though, that there's only a handful of tight ends which you can count on being part of the team's game plan every week. there might be a lot of shuffling and interchangability point-wise, but many tight ends will get nearly all their points for the season in 1/3 of the games or so. they go 3 weeks, getting a total of 25 yards, and then one week the defense is rushing hard and they'll go 85 yards and 2TDs. and then another 3 weeks of 25 yards. so there is a real question of if that's the week that you're playing them, or you got fed up and benched them and missed the surge, or what not. so having a TE that you can actually rely on for 8 or so points every week... big comfort.

in addition to the two already mentioned, witten obviously had a great year last year. crumpler had a good year, even in one that he was injured. and everyone is still waiting for shockey to return to his rookie season form. todd heap missed significant time last year, but is supposed to be ok this year and should be another consistent producer.

after those six, probably, i would agree and say tight end becomes last round drafting material. but the top 2 within the first 6 rounds and the other 4 within the top 10 rounds is completely sensible picks.
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Postby benm3218 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:11 am

well completely sensible is an opinion.........

I agree that some tight ends are not overly consistent.
however, in a 2 qb league like mine, theres just to many picks that are much better value than the te.

we play 2 qb, 1 wr, 1rb, 1 te, and 4 offensive flex, so tight end outside of gates and gonz is not a pick i'll make till late in my league.
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Postby benjapage » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:15 am

where is witten generally being drafted? will he last into the 7th round of a 12-team league?

b
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Postby MadScott » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:44 am

Worried about Troupe? Handcuff him to Kinney. He's no slouch himself. Between the two in that offense, you are potentially sitting on top ten #s and drafting them in the last couple rds. of your draft.

You want to go deep? How about Kris Wilson, KC TE? This guy has all of the athleticism in the world, will be a target opposite Gonzo and gets a bump up if Gonzo isn't healthy during the season.
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Postby kashikis » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:48 am

MadScott wrote:You want to go deep? How about Kris Wilson, KC TE? This guy has all of the athleticism in the world, will be a target opposite Gonzo and gets a bump up if Gonzo isn't healthy during the season.


<slaps madscott> ssshh!

That guy will be money if anything happens to Gonzo
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Postby killiansjmd » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:10 am

The Jets Doug Jolley could be a nice late round sleeper. The Jets new OC has a history from the Titans on getting the ball to the TE position. Jolley is a big target, fast and has good hands.
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