Why no love for Tiki?

[Mookie4ever]

In one of my keeper leagues I have to decide whether to drop Tiki, Westbrook or Rudi and I've been trying to come up with a reason to drop Tiki and I can't. He led the league in total yards and was the #2 overall fantasy back last year. But the Cafe cheatsheets have him at #2 and no other rankings that I have found have him in the top 10.

I find this rather incredible. The main reasons that people always give for him falling back are a predicted decrease in TDs b/c he has never been a great TD scorer (only 3 in 2003) and Jacobs stealing goal-line carries.

In 2002 he had 11 TDs and that all fell apart in 2003. I believe that 2003 was the aberration and not last year. In 2003 the guy got a lot fewer touches b/c of a case of fumblitis and a lack of confidence. He has clearly overcome his confidence and fumbling problems and should be considered one of the elite backs in the league.

He has also shown that he is a great goalline back. He scored 11 TDs from within the 5 yd line last year - that was even with supposed goal line back Ron Dayne on the team. Criticize Dayne all you want but he is 250 pounds with a much better resume than Jacobs. The Giants also had one of the better end zone targets in Shockey to go to last year.

Throw in the fact that Tiki had 9 game of over 100 yds rushing the O-line has improved maybe more than any other O-line in the league, Eli is getting better, Plax is there to make at least one halfway decent receiver and things only look better for Tiki.

So why no love for Tiki? I mean #13 on the Cafe cheatsheets?

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Its because of his TDs.

[Members Only Jackets]

B Jacobs

[Mookie4ever]

Yeah, not doing it for me.

Tiki had 11 goal-line TDs last year. 4 1yard TD runs and 3 2yd TD runs and 3 3yd TD runs.

Jacobs is exactly the same size as Dayne. Jacobs even split the load at Southern Illinois with some stiff - you think that he is going to take Tiki's goal line carries.

Why in the world would they take goal line carries away from Tiki. If it ain't broke don't fix it.

If you say that it's to save Tiki from injury then you have to say that there is also a risk that LT and SA might lose goal line carries. Tiki is a solid 200 pounds and is a ripped work out freak of a physical specimen.

[Keyser_WV]

I would drop Westbrook too.

Rudi and Tiki will be a solid 1-2 punch at RB.

While neither one may be a true #1 fantasy option I think they are both upper level #2 guys.

I think people are too low on Tiki and C-Mart. In one of my leagues I always draft the old RB's late and pick up solid wr's and qb early.

I don't buy into the "hit 30 hit the wall" theory nearly as much as most do.

I won't count them out until I see them declining, not because they turned 30 and may decline soon.

I just don't trust Westbrook, nothing more than a gut feeling.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

what happened in 2003?

[IRON CHEF]

I'm not too much a big fan of Tiki. I'm actually hesitant to believe the Jacobs talk but its worth giving the idea some credit with Tiki getting older. The main reason why I don't like Tiki is because his numbers and overall performance decreased with the switch from Warner to Eli last year. Couple that with past TD and fumble issues and I'm not too excited about this guy.

[Mookie4ever]

what happened in 2003?

In 2003 he lost 6 fumbles in 278 carries. Not exactly someone that you want to trust with the ball on the goal line.

In 2004 he lost 2 in 322 carries and turned into one of the best goal line backs in the league with 11 TDs from inside the 5.

SA in 2004 lost 3 fumbles and rushed for 9 TDs from inside the 5yd line.

LT in 2004 lost 2 fumbles and rushed for 13 TDs from inside the 5.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Are you are saying that the reason he went from 3 to 15 TDs is because he fumbled 4 fewer times and carried the ball 50 more times?

[Mookie4ever]

Are you are saying that the reason he went from 3 to 15 TDs is because he fumbled 4 fewer times and carried the ball 50 more times?

Yes.

In 2003 he fumbled so much that they only gave him the ball 25 times in the red zone and just a few of those inside the 10.

In 2004 with better confidence and fewer fumbles he got 60 carries in the red zone, 32 of them inside the 10.