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Why I think Manning is a Poor 1st Round Draft Pick

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Why I think Manning is a Poor 1st Round Draft Pick

Postby DraftDodger » Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:38 am

Okay, I'll start by giving Manning the stats again. Let's say that he's going to score more than any other fantasy player this year.

So what?

That doesn't make him a first round pick.

Consider ... if you DON'T pick Manning, then you only have to play against him ONCE OR TWICE during the whole regular season.

On the other hand, if you DO choose Manning in the first round, you have to play against the likes of Tomlinson, Holmes, Alexander, McCallister, James, Portis, etc. EVERY REGULAR SEASON GAME.

If you choose Manning in the first, you're almost guaranteeing that you will lose important position matchups EVERY GAME. If you don't choose him, you might still win the QB matchups the majority of the time and you'll have a much better chance of winning the RB matchups.

Think about it ...
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:45 am

I would never take anything other than a RB in the first round. It just messes your team balance up. Manning won't put up the same numbers as last year. He wasn't even the top scorer in the league last year.
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WR- J. Jones, M. Colston
RB- R. Rice, J. Charles
TE- A. Hernandez
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Postby cordscords » Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:47 am

I've got Manning at #7 on my board. He's probably going to be the top scorer, and makes for great trade bait (people will overpay).
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Re: Why I think Manning is a Poor 1st Round Draft Pick

Postby Goatwhacker » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:01 pm

DraftDodger wrote:
If you choose Manning in the first, you're almost guaranteeing that you will lose important position matchups EVERY GAME. If you don't choose him, you might still win the QB matchups the majority of the time


Or you might not. I see your reasoning but it comes down basically to how well you think Manning will do this year. If you feel he will come close to that level, then it's tough to call him a "poor" first round pick.
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Postby UTChE96 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:02 pm

I would probably take him in the first round just because of the lack of depth at the QB position. Also, this is a very deep year for RBs.
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Re: Why I think Manning is a Poor 1st Round Draft Pick

Postby Teh Jury » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:03 pm

DraftDodger wrote:Okay, I'll start by giving Manning the stats again. Let's say that he's going to score more than any other fantasy player this year.

So what?

That doesn't make him a first round pick.

Consider ... if you DON'T pick Manning, then you only have to play against him ONCE OR TWICE during the whole regular season.

On the other hand, if you DO choose Manning in the first round, you have to play against the likes of Tomlinson, Holmes, Alexander, McCallister, James, Portis, etc. EVERY REGULAR SEASON GAME.

If you choose Manning in the first, you're almost guaranteeing that you will lose important position matchups EVERY GAME. If you don't choose him, you might still win the QB matchups the majority of the time and you'll have a much better chance of winning the RB matchups.

Think about it ...


I see what you are saying, but doesn't this go AGAINST the reasoning for picking RBs early on?

As I understand, the reason we take RBs early on is because the relative difference between the #1 and the #20 RB is significantly greater than the relative difference between the #1 and the #20 QB.

Wait, my mind has lost the clarity that I had when I started my post :-? This may support or oppose your initial though, I'll come back when I can sort this out :-D
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Re: Why I think Manning is a Poor 1st Round Draft Pick

Postby Matthias » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:11 pm

DraftDodger wrote:Okay, I'll start by giving Manning the stats again. Let's say that he's going to score more than any other fantasy player this year.

If you choose Manning in the first, you're almost guaranteeing that you will lose important position matchups EVERY GAME. If you don't choose him, you might still win the QB matchups the majority of the time and you'll have a much better chance of winning the RB matchups.

Think about it ...


this whole discussion is getting really tired, but your argument is a complete contradiction. it's not about matchups... you don't get one point if your quarterback outscores their quarterback and 1 point if your running back outscores their running back. it's total points. and if peyton gives the most points, and most importantly, a great point differential, then he's worthwhile. that's all there is to it.
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Postby FF Newbie » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:16 pm

It doesn't matter whether or not your RBs outscore the other teams' RBs or whether or not your players at any given position outscore another teams' players at that position. All that matters is that your ENTIRE TEAM score more points than the other ENTIRE TEAM. It's a simple concept, really. And no, Manning is not a bad 1st-round pick.
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Postby DolphinsAllTheWay » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:24 pm

I would pick him 4th...........its not like the 4th best RB is that much better then say the 10th ranked RB and i do think MAnning will be outscore other QB's by a bunch except for McNabb(if Owens plays).

You can still grab RB late this year like Arrington, Anderson as your #2RB
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Postby eaglesrule » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:28 pm

it depends on the league to be honest. In a td league, I think I would take manning over anyone not named preist.

my one league is 50 pts passing, 25 rushing, receiving.

And the top three significantly outscore the next three best qb's in that format. much more than the top 3 backs scored over their peers.

The way I figure it, if you take manning in round one, you have a good shot of getting something decent for your first back. Especially if moss, cpep and ownes all garner round one or two selections.

Its really a judgment call. But even if manning only gets 35 td's, that's a lot of piece of mind. I mean, the "sure thing backs" IMO are not as plentiful this year, but there are lot of serviceable ones.
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