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KC RBBC new situation. QA w/Vermeil

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Postby Homeless » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:20 am

Atrophying Testicles


My god, thats one of the worst names ive ever seen LOL
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Postby Teh Jury » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:23 am

Either way, I'm hoping that LJ will start some games this year (err.. that's the sportsmanlike way of saying that I hope Priest will go down :-o ).

In our private league, the Priest owner didn't cuff LJ so I scooped him up with one of my late picks. I want in on that KC running offence!
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Postby RyanK » Wed Aug 31, 2005 11:18 am

Homeless wrote:
Atrophying Testicles


My god, thats one of the worst names ive ever seen LOL


haha... so he comes over from the baseball side...



but about the topic on hand... Priest will still put up top RB # even if his work load is not as much, hes just that good, as is the chiefs running game. I just hope that eventually LJ can become a huge back, ive always been a fan of him
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Postby cruiz03 » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:58 pm

Not to take anything away from Priest, cause in my book he is still the man, bud has anyone noticed how FAST LJ is?

I've got a Dish with TVO and i've been able to see just about every preseason game and can not believe how patient he is and then hitting the hole FAST. BTW.... he rarely goes down on first contact.

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Postby maddog60 » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:01 pm

Oh, no doubt LJ would succeed if given the chance to start full-time for KC, but well, when it ain't broke, don't fix it. If you've got a RB who's going to get 20+ TDs, you don't mess with the formula, just in case.
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Postby MadScott » Wed Aug 31, 2005 6:40 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
ljthockey wrote:Yeah I also saw that Vermiel plans to go 70 - 30 or 60 - 40. But like said before 70% or 60% of a healthy Priest Holmes is still a very dangerous fantasy threat. Also I think mentioned before LJ might get alot of carries but its going to be the goaline carries that are going to warrant most of the fantasy value here. Even though LJ has a good nose for the endzone as well Priest should be getting all the carries inside the 20.


If you play in a league with a flex spot (my league has two) and you own Priest and LJ with a 60-40 split, you can probably start both of them and still get great production. The KC running game is so good that 40% of LJ is probably equal to a #20-25 running back like Dunn or someone of that sort.

I think that if you own both of them you will be fine. I don't believe it will be quite as drastic as a 60-40 split anyway, but it's not the end of the world even if it was. Both of them are going to put up some great numbers even if the percentage is that.

The KC running game is so good that you can probably get away with starting two of their running backs because in most weeks, their production totaled together would be greater than just a normal number 1 running back.

Am I way off base here or does this make sense? Thoughts?
I think not only in the case of a flex position but in leagues that are TD heavy, it's not out of the realm of possibility to play both Priest and LJ during the same week.

I threw this in the other Priest/LJ post as well, but I don't think you are going to see how the carries are actually going to flow during the season until the Chiefs play a tightly contested game. Priest is going to get his early and often to get the Chiefs out to a lead and then I think they plan on resting him, allowing LJ to pound out the remainder of the game, and why not? He's finally living up to his first rd. potential.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:50 am

Guttpuppy wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Currently I have Priest getting slightly more than a 60% share of the carries and LJ slightly less than 40% share of the carries.


Vermeil doesn't have it figured out but you do?

Wonderful.


I'm glad you're here to offer an opinion of your own. Thanks for posting.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:53 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:
ljthockey wrote:Yeah I also saw that Vermiel plans to go 70 - 30 or 60 - 40. But like said before 70% or 60% of a healthy Priest Holmes is still a very dangerous fantasy threat. Also I think mentioned before LJ might get alot of carries but its going to be the goaline carries that are going to warrant most of the fantasy value here. Even though LJ has a good nose for the endzone as well Priest should be getting all the carries inside the 20.


If you play in a league with a flex spot (my league has two) and you own Priest and LJ with a 60-40 split, you can probably start both of them and still get great production. The KC running game is so good that 40% of LJ is probably equal to a #20-25 running back like Dunn or someone of that sort.

I think that if you own both of them you will be fine. I don't believe it will be quite as drastic as a 60-40 split anyway, but it's not the end of the world even if it was. Both of them are going to put up some great numbers even if the percentage is that.

The KC running game is so good that you can probably get away with starting two of their running backs because in most weeks, their production totaled together would be greater than just a normal number 1 running back.

Am I way off base here or does this make sense? Thoughts?


These are my thoughts exactly. In a 70/30 split like previous years, Priest Holmes is the far and away #1 RB and makes a run at the TD record and is a good bet to combine for 2,000+ total yards.

If there is a 60/40 split, Priest is right up there with LT fantasy-wise, but he is not the world beater he used to be. At the same time, LJ is getting enough of the carries to himself become a startable #3 RB every week of the year, even as the backup.

The Dunn/Duckett comparison is a good one, although I doubt they split the goalline carries down the middle like Atlanta does. LJ could easily see 8-10 carries a game though, easily.
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Postby spodog » Thu Sep 01, 2005 1:42 pm

Guttpuppy wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Currently I have Priest getting slightly more than a 60% share of the carries and LJ slightly less than 40% share of the carries.


Vermeil doesn't have it figured out but you do?

Wonderful.


For those who don't study Vermeil closely, it doesn't matter if he has it figured out or not. He often doesn't know the first name of the player that he is talking about in an interview. He is like the Zig Ziglar of coaching, he's all about conceptual themes and cheerleading and motivating. He let's his coaches run things.

The real question is does AL SAUNDERS have it figured out? (Chiefs Off Coordinator).

I think he does.

Consider this:

In each of the last 3 years, Priest has came out before the season started and both he and the offensive coaching staff overtly talked about working on PERSONAL GOALS for Priest (get to 1500 yards, set the NFL record for TD's blah blah blah). They were assuming that their offense was so good that they were taking the wins for granted and looking at other objectives specifcially focused around Priest.

Well, a 7-9 season and a few injuries later, the story is different. This team realizes that this year is it. The OLine is mostly eligible for social security (W Shields will not play next year, Roaf may retire as well), T Green is starting to show signs of age, our all-Pro fullback is in his 30's, cmon.

Here is the 2005 motto: It's time to set aside the personal goals and manage the team to go deep in the AFC playoffs.

What does this mean for the Preist/LJ issue?

It means that we will see Priest spelled a little more frequently on 2nd downs late in the games, as last year proved that LJ has NFL skills. HE IS STILL NOT TRUSTED AT THE GOAL LINE, however.

Expect Priest to get the goal line carries. Plus, if you want to make a defensive coordinator panic in his sets for goal line defenses, do you want him to have to worry about a Priest Holmes/Tony Gonzalez focus or a Larry Johnson ? Obvious answer.

Priest is still the #1 guy and only another injury will change that.

What you won't see is if KC is up 44-13 in the 4th quarter, you won't see the stupid delayed draw plays designed to get Priest 30 yards against a prevent defense like you saw in '02 and '03 all the time. You'll see Priest watching that play from the bench.

So if you're strategy is to draft to try and get as many 4Q garbage points as possible, you should worry.

If you're strategy is to win your games, Priest is a top 3 pick and LJ is a 5th or 6th rounder at best in your draft.

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Postby maddog60 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:06 pm

spodog wrote:What you won't see is if KC is up 44-13 in the 4th quarter, you won't see the stupid delayed draw plays designed to get Priest 30 yards against a prevent defense like you saw in '02 and '03 all the time. You'll see Priest watching that play from the bench.


Ok, so lets assume Priest loses all of his 4th quarter touches and the production that goes along with them. Do you realize that last year, if you take away his 4th quarter production he was still on pace for:

1500+ rushing yards, 300+ receiving yards, and 24 TDs.

Yeah, those are #1 overall pick numbers if I've ever seen them even without his play in the 4th quarter. Based on last year, if he didn't play the 4th quarter he'd have lost 268 yards and 6 TDs. A significant hit to most RBs, but he'd still have been the TD leader and likely close to the overall yardage leaders.
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