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My solution to the gas crisis.....

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Postby bagobonez » Thu Sep 01, 2005 7:47 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
VHawk15 wrote:Yes, but in your example of blowing up Iraq, they may not "kick" us back, but the rest of the world would.

Surely you aren't so much of a "Cowboy" that you would welcome a WWIII featuring America vs. the World.


NO, not just yet, but at what point do we put our foot down? $5 a gallon? $10 a gallon? Because it's headed that way rapidly, and as long as we keep tolerating it, there's no reason for the money hungry price setters to stop raising the prices.



I'm curious to know who it is you blame for the price of gasoline right now?

If it is our foreign suppliers, then you must place the majority of the blame on the Canadians... Are you really suggesting we nuke Canada?

In reality the two MAJOR reasons for the price of gasoline right now are a drastically increased demand and a shortage of refining capacity.... The raw amounts of oil provided to the United States has not changed....

The increased demand can be blamed predominantly on two factors:

1) the increase in domestic demand caused by more and more drivers driving ridiculously inefficient vehicles longer distances (urban sprawl)...

2) the industrialization of China and India.... As these countries become more and more industrialized they require greater and greater amounts of fuel, and with fully 2.4 billion people (over a third of the world's population) living in those two countries, as their societies modernize and become dependent on oil for energy to heat homes, run factories, power automobiles, provide electricity, etc... you are looking at a situation where the demand for oil explodes....

The other reason for the price hikes is the fact that as demand has steadily increased in the United States, the refining capacity has not.... There is a bottleneck at the refinery level.... We could double our supply of oil tomorrow, and we would see no change in gas prices, because the amount of oil that we can refine and get to market would remain unchanged.... And now, Katrina has shut down an area of the country which is home to refineries which process nearly 20% of the country's oil supply.... When you consider that our refining capacity was woefully insufficient 2 weeks ago, what do you think happens when we can process 20% less oil now than then?


So who is it that you want to bomb?

The Canadians?

The American SUV-driving soccer moms?

The Chinese?

The Indians?

Or the American oil refiners who just had their refineries obliterated by the worst natural disaster in American history?


If it's simply a matter of supply and demand, then how come the price of a quart of regular motor oil hasn't tripled like gasoline has?

Somebody, somewhere is lining their pockets because of all of this. I don't doubt that Katrina had it's share in raising the price, and yes, the price of gas has to go up eventually, but does it have to triple in just a few years? I think not. THere's more to the story.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:57 am

bagobonez wrote:If it's simply a matter of supply and demand, then how come the price of a quart of regular motor oil hasn't tripled like gasoline has?

Somebody, somewhere is lining their pockets because of all of this. I don't doubt that Katrina had it's share in raising the price, and yes, the price of gas has to go up eventually, but does it have to triple in just a few years? I think not. THere's more to the story.


Because there is a surplus of motor oil, when compared to gasoline.... Which means changes in supply or demand do not affect the prices nearly as much for motor oil as they do for gasoline....

Let's look at your agerage American for a second..... Let's say we've got Bubba Smith, and he drives an F-150.... Let's say his F-150 gets 18 mpg.... And he lives out in the suburbs and has a 30 mile commute to and from work everyday.... And he drives about 100 miles per week on the weekend and doing non-work related things....

So Bubba drives roughly 400 miles per week.... Which means he burns up 22.2 gallons of gas per week - or roughly 89 gallons per month.... Over a three month period he burn up 267 gallons of gas....

Bubba also gets regular oil changes every 3 months, and uses a quart of oil to top off his tank between changes.... We'll say his F-150 holds 5 quarts of oil.... So in the same three month period in which he burns up 267 gallons of gasoline, he also uses 1.5 gallons of oil....

Now, in the refining process there are 8 major outputs from a barrel of oil:

Gasses (butane, etc), Naptha, Gasoline, Kerosene, Diesel fuel, motor oil, heavy gas oil, and residuals (asphalt, etc...)....

Let's assume for the sake of discussion that a barrel of oil produces these products in roughly equal amounts.... It's not exactly true, but pretty close.... If you imagine the way that a distillation column works, that should make sense to you.... Basically they pour crude oil into a long vertical tube, and provide a heat source at the bottom.... All of the products in the tube become gasses and move upward in the tube until they reach the spot in the tube where the temperature in the tube at that spot is just slightly less than their boiling point, and then they condense and are piped off.... As each component in the crude oil has a different boiling point, the crude oil is thus seperated into its various component parts....

Now, the naptha from oil distillation is further processed to produce lubricating and heavy gas oils once it is piped off, so in reality, a barrel of crude oil produces more motor oil than gasoline, but we will ignore that for the time being and assume that a barrel of crude produce equal parts of all of the substances I listed above... Roughly 12.5% of each barrel is converted into each of those substances....


So, let's say I own an oil refinery, and I process a million barrels of oil per day.... My yield from that processing is:

125,000 barrels of gasoline

and

125,000 barrels of motor oil (actully more after Naptha reprocessing)

Now, let's assume that I am running my refinery at full speed, and I am just barely able to meet the demand for gasoline...

We have already established that the demand for gasoline by the average American consumer (Bubba Smith) is roughly 175 times that of the demand for motor oil.... So if my refinery is working overtime to meet the gasoline demand, and my refinery produces approximately 1 barrel of motor oil for every barrel of gasoline I produce, the end result is a significant surplus of motor oil....

So, when my refinery is wiped out by a hurricane, and I can no longer produce gasoline, guess what I still have LOTS of reserves of? Motor oil.... So gas prices sky-rocket, but the price of a quart of oil experiences very little change, because the supply was not significantly reduced in the short term due to the surplus of motor oil on the market?


Does that make sense?
Last edited by Plindsey88 on Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby lmcjaho » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:11 am

Walter E. Williams wrote:Gasoline prices
Walter E. Williams (back to web version) | Recommend to a friend


August 31, 2005


Nationally, the average per gallon price for regular gasoline is $2.50.

Are gasoline prices high? That's not the best way to ask that question. It's akin to asking, "Is Williams tall?" The average height of U.S. women is 5'4", and for men, it's 5'10". Being 6'4", I'd be tall relative to the general U.S. population. But put me on a basketball court, next to the average NBA basketball player, and I wouldn't be tall; I'd be short. So when we ask whether a price is high or low, we have to ask relative to what.

In 1950, a gallon of regular gasoline sold for about 30 cents; today, it's $2.50. Are today's gasoline prices high compared to 1950? Before answering that question, we have to take into account inflation that has occurred since 1950. Using my trusty inflation calculator (http://www.westegg.com/inflation), what cost 30 cents in 1950 costs $2.33 in 2005. In real terms, that means gasoline prices today are only slightly higher, about 8 percent, than they were in 1950. Up until the recent spike, gasoline prices have been considerably lower than 1950 prices.

Some Americans are demanding that the government do something about gasoline prices. Let's think back to 1979 when the government did do something. The Carter administration instituted price controls. What did we see? We saw long gasoline lines, and that's if the gas station hadn't run out of gas. It's estimated that Americans used about 150,000 barrels of oil per day idling their cars while waiting in line. In an effort to deal with long lines, the Carter administration introduced the harebrained scheme of odd and even days, whereby a motorist whose license tag started with an odd number could fill up on odd-numbered days, and those with an even number on even-numbered days.

With the recent spike in gas prices, the government has chosen not to pursue stupid policies of the past. As a result, we haven't seen shortages. We haven't seen long lines. We haven't seen gasoline station fights and riots. Why? Because price has been allowed to perform its valuable function -- that of equating demand with supply.

Our true supply problem is of our own doing. Large quantities of oil lie below the 20 million acre Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The amount of land proposed for oil drilling is less than 2,000 acres, less than one-half of one percent of ANWR. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates there are about 10 billion barrels of recoverable oil in ANWR. But environmentalists' hold on Congress has prevented us from drilling for it. They've also had success in restricting drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and off the shore of California. Another part of our energy problem has to do with refining capacity. Again, because of environmentalists' successful efforts, it's been 30 years since we've built a new oil refinery.

Few people realize that the U.S. is also a major oil-producing country. After Saudi Arabia, producing 10.4 million barrels a day, then Russia with 9.4 million barrels, the U.S. with 8.7 million barrels a day is the third-largest producer of oil. But we could produce more. Why aren't we? Producers have a variety of techniques to win monopoly power and higher profits that come with that power. What's a way for OPEC to gain more power? I have a hypothesis, for which I have no evidence, but it ought to be tested. If I were an OPEC big cheese, I'd easily conclude that I could restrict output and charge higher oil prices if somehow U.S. oil drilling were restricted. I'd see U.S. environmental groups as allies, and I would make "charitable" contributions to assist their efforts to reduce U.S. output. Again, I have no evidence, but it's a hypothesis worth examination.



http://www.townhall.com/columnists/walt ... 0831.shtml
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Postby Mercer Boy » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:40 am

Nice job with the description of the distillation process...it's pretty much dead on. Chemists (like me) around the world applaud you! :-) ;-D

I think the only answer to this problem is for normal people to lower the demand...meaning don't go anywhere unless it's absolutely necessary. Don't make 4 trips to the grocery store...do it once a week. Go out for dinner/the bar once a week instead of 3 times (yes, I know that would be hard to cut down on beer :-b ). All non-essential driving should be cut out.

If you can't get a new car, you've got to do what you can. We know the gas prices aren't going down, so we have to limit the damage to our own wallets.
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Postby bagobonez » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:28 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:
bagobonez wrote:If it's simply a matter of supply and demand, then how come the price of a quart of regular motor oil hasn't tripled like gasoline has?

Somebody, somewhere is lining their pockets because of all of this. I don't doubt that Katrina had it's share in raising the price, and yes, the price of gas has to go up eventually, but does it have to triple in just a few years? I think not. THere's more to the story.


Because there is a surplus of motor oil, when compared to gasoline.... Which means changes in supply or demand do not affect the prices nearly as much for motor oil as they do for gasoline....

Let's look at your agerage American for a second..... Let's say we've got Bubba Smith, and he drives an F-150.... Let's say his F-150 gets 18 mpg.... And he lives out in the suburbs and has a 30 mile commute to and from work everyday.... And he drives about 100 miles per week on the weekend and doing non-work related things....

So Bubba drives roughly 400 miles per week.... Which means he burns up 22.2 gallons of gas per week - or roughly 89 gallons per month.... Over a three month period he burn up 267 gallons of gas....

Bubba also gets regular oil changes every 3 months, and uses a quart of oil to top off his tank between changes.... We'll say his F-150 holds 5 quarts of oil.... So in the same three month period in which he burns up 267 gallons of gasoline, he also uses 1.5 gallons of oil....

Now, in the refining process there are 8 major outputs from a barrel of oil:

Gasses (butane, etc), Naptha, Gasoline, Kerosene, Diesel fuel, motor oil, heavy gas oil, and residuals (asphalt, etc...)....

Let's assume for the sake of discussion that a barrel of oil produces these products in roughly equal amounts.... It's not exactly true, but pretty close.... If you imagine the way that a distillation column works, that should make sense to you.... Basically they pour crude oil into a long vertical tube, and provide a heat source at the bottom.... All of the products in the tube become gasses and move upward in the tube until they reach the spot in the tube where the temperature in the tube at that spot is just slightly less than their boiling point, and then they condense and are piped off.... As each component in the crude oil has a different boiling point, the crude oil is thus seperated into its various component parts....

Now, the naptha from oil distillation is further processed to produce lubricating and heavy gas oils once it is piped off, so in reality, a barrel of crude oil produces more motor oil than gasoline, but we will ignore that for the time being and assume that a barrel of crude produce equal parts of all of the substances I listed above... Roughly 12.5% of each barrel is converted into each of those substances....


So, let's say I own an oil refinery, and I process a million barrels of oil per day.... My yield from that processing is:

125,000 barrels of gasoline

and

125,000 barrels of motor oil (actully more after Naptha reprocessing)

Now, let's assume that I am running my refinery at full speed, and I am just barely able to meet the demand for gasoline...

We have already established that the demand for gasoline by the average American consumer (Bubba Smith) is roughly 175 times that of the demand for motor oil.... So if my refinery is working overtime to meet the gasoline demand, and my refinery produces approximately 1 barrel of motor oil for every barrel of gasoline I produce, the end result is a significant surplus of motor oil....

So, when my refinery is wiped out by a hurricane, and I can no longer produce gasoline, guess what I still have LOTS of reserves of? Motor oil.... So gas prices sky-rocket, but the price of a quart of oil experiences very little change, because the supply was not significantly reduced in the short term due to the surplus of motor oil on the market?


Does that make sense?


You lost me at the word Naptha. At any rate, we can all bicker about this all day long, but the bottom line is, all of us are getting bent over without lubrication every time we go to the pump, and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:59 pm

bagobonez wrote:You lost me at the word Naptha. At any rate, we can all bicker about this all day long, but the bottom line is, all of us are getting bent over without lubrication every time we go to the pump, and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon.


Heh...actually, that's the only thing that was wrong with Plindsey's description.

The word is actually "naphtha." Famous naphthas include VM&P Naphtha (lighter fluid), Mineral Spirits, and Naphthalene...which really isn't a naphtha, but it has it in the name. :-D

Then there is the indicator "Phenolphthalein" which has the hth in it like naphtha does...but it's a diarrhetic. :-o
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Postby awwchrist » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:16 pm

chemist in the hizzle. :-D
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Postby mutantseabass » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:21 pm

Dam MB, do you have custom doors at your house so you can fit that brain through them! Quite impressive!!
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Postby Mercer Boy » Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:04 pm

mutantseabass wrote:Dam MB, do you have custom doors at your house so you can fit that brain through them! Quite impressive!!


It helps to work in the field. I deal with that stuff daily. ;-D

I'm sure a lot of you used Phenolphthalein in Chemistry class...it's the main indicator that we use to measure the strength of the major strong acids like HCl, H2SO4, and HNO3. It's clear in acid, but once the pH reaches 8, it turns pink...that's when you know how to stop adding base! ;-D

I'll also bet some of you use Naphthalene...that's what moth balls are made of. %-6 It's made up of two benzene rings connected together on two adjacent carbons...very neat molecule. :-)
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Postby Goatwhacker » Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:09 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:
I'm sure a lot of you used Phenolphthalein in Chemistry class...it's the main indicator that we use to measure the strength of the major strong acids like HCl, H2SO4, and HNO3. It's clear in acid, but once the pH reaches 8, it turns pink...that's when you know how to stop adding base! ;-D



Some may use it another way too, it's the main ingredient in Ex-Lax. It can also turn your urine red if you ingest much of it. Fun with science! :-)
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