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Strategy for drafting with "known idiots"...?

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Strategy for drafting with "known idiots"...?

Postby Mercer Boy » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:09 pm

Here's a general strategy question with a real-life example...there is lots of detail, but it's needed to lay out the question. The draft is over so I can't do anything about this one. But, I was thinking this might make for some good discussion for others going into drafts this week.

Well, today I did a 10 team draft with people from my work. IRON CHEF was also involved since we only had 9 members for the league, so you can ask him about it also. ;-D

Going into this thing, I had no idea how "knowledgable" the other drafters were in fantasy football (other than IC...I was pretty confident he knew what to do). So, I basically had to assume they knew what they were doing. I have heard several of the people in the league talking fantasy before, so that's all I had to go on.

The settings were sort of weird. There was no TE slot, and QB's had odd ultra-high scoring...point per 20 yards passing, 6 point TD's, -2 for INT's, but -1 for sacks taken. These settings actually made me bump Manning up to my #4 overall pick...something I would never consider in a "normal" league without sacks or with 25 yards/point passing or 4 point TD's. Since Manning barely ever gets sacked (13 last year compared to 30+ for all other starting fantasy QB's with the exception of Favre - but that will probably change this year, Plummer, and Collins), I felt his value jumped up considerably also.

Anyway, I got the 3rd pick. I assumed that Manning would be taken before he got to me anyway, and he was taken 2nd. That got me SA with pick #3.

After that, that's when a lot of the bad picks started...and when I should have realized I was essentially drafting with idiots. :-P

Someone took Barber in the first round, then Tony Gonzalez in the first as well (totally baffling since there was no TE slot...I could MAYBE understand it if there were, but this guy obviously had a man-crush), and McNabb was taken at #10. Gates wasn't far after that in round 2. Other notable picks in Round 2 - Adam Vinatieri and PIT - yes, we live in Steelers country.

Anyway, as I laughed at all these bad picks, I ended up getting Deuce with pick #18...total steal in my book. Then, on the way back, there were still insane amounts of good RB's left. So, I went ahead and took Julius Jones with my 3rd rounder. I almost took Holt, but I figured with the idiotic picks that came after me that surely there would be decent WR's left to take later.

Anyway, the stupid picking continued...Favre, BAL, and Ward went in Round 3, and Brady went in Round 4. I took Burleson in that round.

Then we have Round 5. One of the biggest travesties in fantasy football was found here - Clinton Portis was STILL AVAILABLE! 8-o At this point, I wanted to take him sooo badly...but with 3 other solid RB's already taken by me, I had to pass him up by taking Darrell Jackson. I really didn't feel like trading with people, but in retrospect, I should have just taken him anyway and tried to trade.

Fast forward a little...more bad picks continued, and guys like Westbrook, Arrington, LJ, and Caddy fell, fell, and fell. LJ in Round 11, and Caddy wasn't taken until Round 12 by IC.

Draft is over...I'm thinking I am in pretty good shape with this bunch:

Plummer (due to the sacks thing I had him ranked way higher), Brooks
SA, Deuce, JJ, Taylor, Bennett
Burly, D-Jax, S. Smith
Graham
STL (I am rotating defenses all year...all the good D's were gone WAY too early, and the only other one I considered - Carolina - was taken in Round 11 by IC as I took Brooks as my backup QB.)

Unfortunately, I am not liking my standing here. Due to all the horrid drafters, about 5 of the 10 guys have unbelieveable teams. The Manning owner will crush us if he repeats last year, but even if he doesn't, this is what he has:
Manning, Carr
Portis, Jackson, Jordan, Parker, Faulk (he picked up Parker and has him starting; he has Portis on the bench for whatever reason :-B)
Owens, Bruce, Branch, McCardell
Stover, Lindell
ATL

You know what the sad thing is...I'm not so sure he even drafted the team himself 8-o ...he never said anything during the draft, and he took the whole time limit on pretty much every pick. I think I know who the guy was, but either way it was a little suspicious.

OK, so here's the question - if you KNOW the people in your league are going to make idiotic picks, do you go "idiotic" yourself and take studs from other positions with less value, or do you stick to a normal "expert" strategy that says to take the highest valued player available?

Example - I think Culpepper should do well again. I could have taken Culpepper 3rd overall and STILL gotten Duece/KJ in round 2-3, or I could have gone Culpepper/Deuce/Holt and still gotten Portis/Jordan in Round 4, and then followed it with Burleson and D-Jax in Round 5.

Here's the point I'm trying to make...If you're in a 10 team league, you know that the number of players you'll need is smaller. Because of this, everyone SHOULD have a good team. But, if some of the people are utter moron drafters, then you may want to alter your strategy from one of value drafting to one of "stud" drafting. Since you're pretty sure that you'll be able to get top talent MUCH later than normal, you can be a little crazy and take studs at other positions before they should be taken and still end up with a heck of a team.

Does this make sense? Any comments about the "theory" I laid out? I don't need you to critique what I did really...just want to know if this idea makes sense.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:33 pm

RBs always tend to fall in "idiotic" or local drafts. I like to go stud WR/QB/TE early and you can fill in the blanks at RB pretty well.

In my local league, I successfully added a RB/WR flex position before the draft this year, and I STILL went stud WR in the 2nd and came out GREAT at RB. Ended up with Deuce/Holt/Rudi/Martin in the first 4 rounds... In retrospect, I should have grabbed a Walker/Wayne in place of Rudi, because I managed to get Mike Anderson and could have had Cadillac in place of a WR later in the draft..
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Postby MadScott » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:46 pm

I don't know if there is a hard and fast rule on exactly what to do, I think you just have to gauge what is coming off the board. Usually, I've seen it create some very nice talent that falls tremendously in drafts, as Caddy did in your draft.

In a local I was just in, I already knew that I was going to take Priest at 1.3. I had figured on going WR in the second and just seeing how the rd finished after that. Not only did 6/10 guys take WR in the 2nd rd., but the next rd. there was another slew of goofy picks that included Trent Green going in the third. It freed me up to land Holt/CJ as 2 of 3 starting WRs and then S. Jackson fell to me in the 4th. I feel like I got a ton of value at that spot with him. The next few rounds I went pretty heavy on RB, grabbing 6 overall in 15 rds. In any other league I would have felt like I had just scored a major coup but in this one I was kind of left thinking to myself that perhaps I had too many RBs. Then the booze wore off and all was ok.

Locals like this drive me crazy. Still looks like you came out nice though Mercer.
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Postby Big Pimpin' » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:48 pm

mercer. this actually does make sense and i'm out the door to my draft right now that i have a feeling might be the same way. thanks for throwing that out there because i might just look to alter my strategy. i'll think about it on the ride over.....
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Postby maddog60 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:51 pm

If you know you're drafting with idiots, grab the biggest names first, and don't hesitate to get an early kicker or defense.
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Postby Yrr » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:13 pm

In one of my leagues...the guy with the fifth overall pick took manning, than in the second round he took favre.....those were his first two picks.

The kicker is he later tells me that the reason he took favre was cause he had nobody and needed trade bait....this was the second round !!!
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Postby DelhommesFan1 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:22 pm

i just to done drafting for a league with friends also...dummy drafters are pretty funny too...we had marvin harrison, the big number 3 pick OVERALL...haha ....this is my draft results in a 8 man league


1. (6) W. McGahee
2. (11) D. Davis
3. (22) T. Holt
4. (27) C. Johnson
5. (38) S. Jackson
6. (43) L. Jordan
7. (54) J. Witten
8. (59) J. Arrington
9. (70) N. Burleson
10. (75) M. Bulger
11. (86) M. Anderson
12. (91) R. Brown
13. (102) A. Lelie
14. (107) C. Palmer
15. (118) S. Janikowski
16. (123) Buffalo

as you can tell...ill prolly win
1qb,2wr,2rb, 2wr/rb,1te,1k,1def...

what do you think...haha
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Postby giantdogs92 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:54 pm

basically it only takes one idiot and a few less informed guys.... say one guy takes gonzo in the second then the other guys all think uh oh better jump on tight ends.... same thing with defense and kicker
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Postby IRON CHEF » Fri Sep 02, 2005 2:28 am

I see where you are coming from Mercer, and while it does make sense to change your strategy I wouldn't stray all too far acourse. MadScott has the right idea by gauging when players are going. I had the 7th pick and at that point I would normally go for one of the top RBs, but I took Moss instead figuring that a 1st rd caliber RB would fall back to me and sure enough I was able to grab Lewis. I followed that up with K Jones and Rudi in the 3rd and 4th, and continued to add value guys that I may not need but I had to pick simply because it was worth taking them. But I had fun watching Randle El and Roethlisberger fly off the board while Mercer continued to predict who I would draft. :-b
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Postby UNDEFEATED » Fri Sep 02, 2005 3:32 am

Yes. You must go "idiot" yourself.

I just did a draft like this.

But draft restrictions prohibited me from taking major advantage. Maximum 3rbs. Only allowed to draft one backup per position.

LJ-Tjones-Mike Anderson-Droughns-Mewelde-SDavis-toefield....all on the ww.

Actually drafting like a Fantasy Vet hurt me. I am very weak at wr.

Oh well. Mercer Boy. I made a mental note Draft '06. Lots of RB depth in our drafts. So no more 3rb in the first three rounds. DDavis-Lamont-Martin passed on S-Jax.

To answer your question again. You must adapt. Or else.
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