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Strategy for drafting with "known idiots"...?

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Postby Mercer Boy » Fri Sep 02, 2005 5:49 am

IRON CHEF wrote:I see where you are coming from Mercer, and while it does make sense to change your strategy I wouldn't stray all too far acourse. MadScott has the right idea by gauging when players are going. I had the 7th pick and at that point I would normally go for one of the top RBs, but I took Moss instead figuring that a 1st rd caliber RB would fall back to me and sure enough I was able to grab Lewis. I followed that up with K Jones and Rudi in the 3rd and 4th, and continued to add value guys that I may not need but I had to pick simply because it was worth taking them. But I had fun watching Randle El and Roethlisberger fly off the board while Mercer continued to predict who I would draft. :-b

See, you had the advantage in that you drafted 7th and saw Gonzalez go 5th overall. At that point you realized there were some stupidheads and could get away with stuff like that. I didn't have that luxury since the first two picks I saw were fairly legitimate. :-)

Well, I guess the point is that I am essentially right in my thinking...if you know you're going against dumb drafters, act a little dumb yourself and take studs at other positions because there's a good chance you will still land guys you like later...especially in leagues with less than 12 members.
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Postby MadScott » Fri Sep 02, 2005 7:04 am

The other big downside to drafting with guys like these is that you should anticipate that you will not be able to trade with them at all during the season. For whatever reason they have, those are the players that they chose and love and for the most part, you aren't going to get them to part with them even if you offer something incredible in return. The biggest rule I would say to absolutely stick to in a league like this is to make sure that you draft your team wisely and fill it out as close to full as you can anticipating that you aren't going to trade.
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Postby PSU All Day » Fri Sep 02, 2005 8:21 am

In hindsight, I would have taken Portis as it would have meant that your competition would not have him available. You still were able to get Steve Smith who I think will do well and I am betting that you could have taken another decent WR instead of Bennett.

I am a big proponent in taking players away from my competition even if I am not going to play them. Now a lot of people see it as wasting value on my bench when I could upgrade at another position, but I view it as the difference in points in their starting T Jones as their #1 RB instead of Portis. Hard for me to get more of a point differential in a trade for a WR (assuming my WR's don't suck).

Even if you were not able to trade, it hurts your competition which always helps you.
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Postby pdub » Fri Sep 02, 2005 8:26 am

yes you do have to follow the flow of the draft to a certain extent. primarily because you're left with all this value on your bench and the idiots in the league are too stupid to know they need to trade with you.

when you draft all that value, you put yourself in a position to be dependent on all the idiots in your league to trade with you, which is never a good place to be.
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Postby bellybrother » Fri Sep 02, 2005 8:59 am

In my recent local draft I saw some "questionable" picks in the first 4 rounds and was able to get two very good RB's IMO(McGahee and K Jones w/ picks 1:10 and 2:03. Start 2) then took Javon Walker(start 2) and JJ Arrington. Being pretty solid at my RB slots and having a good WR1 already, I decided to roll the dice and took TE and DST with my next two picks thinking I could get good value at QB and WR2 later. I took Alge as the 5th TE off the board and then Baltimore's DST 1st off the board. This is obviously early and normally I wait to get both, but with the way things wrere going I took the chance and I think it paid off. I was still able to get Plummer and Palmer at QB(start 1) and Deion Branch as my WR2 in the 9th rd.
So I guess what I'm saying is yes....adapt, improvise, overcome.

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Postby Bucky » Fri Sep 02, 2005 9:06 am

I was in a 12 team draft with a bunch of terrible drafters. In retrospect, I think the best stategy would incorporate 3 basic principles:

1. Early on, try to grab the biggest stud available, regardless of position (except maybe kicker).
2. Try to give priority to filling up starting lineup 1st.
3. Avoid being on the back end of a run.

These can't always be accomplished at the same time but I think they are good tactics to use when appropriate.

By the way, my draft turned out like:

1. (6) S. Alexander
2. (18) C. Dillon
3. (30) T. Holt
4. (42) B. Westbrook
5. (54) S. Smith
6. (66) T. Heap
7. (78) L. Fitzgerald
8. (90) A. Brooks
9. (102) C. Palmer
10. (114) M. Moore
11. (126) T. Henry
12. (138) Tampa Bay
13. (150) M. Anderson
14. (162) J. Hanson

Was happy with most everything but think I waited a couple rounds too late on QB.

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Postby Budman_ffc » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:36 am

This thread is exactly what I'll be facing in my draft next Tuesday. This is a work league and the member turn-over is pretty significant each year. About half the guys are pretty savvy and the rest are newbies playing FF for the first time or just casual players that don't do much research (if any). We get to keep one player each year.

Here is the order of our serpentine draft and the person they kept.

Team #1 - Culpepper (1st time owner)
Team #2 - McNabb (somewhat savvy owner)
Team #3 - LT (savvy owner - last year's champ)
Team #4 - CMart (casual owner-no research)
Team #5 - Ahman Green (1st time owner-casual type player)
Team #6 - Alexander (1st time owner-casual type player)
Team #7 - Edge (Me)
Team #8 - Westbrook (savvy owner)
Team #9 - Dillon (Casual owner-no research)
Team #10 - Manning (savvy owner)

Team #5 took over a team that had no players on it that were first two rounds worthy. Before we identified our keeper player and dropped the rest, I traded him A. Green (who I was going to drop anyways) and my first round pick for his first round pick. So in the first round only I pick #5.

Last year I took a bunch of top RB's, but like it was mentioned earlier, I couldn't get anyone to trade.....I expect the same again this year. What are your thoughts on how I should approach it? I'm really thinking about an elite WR instead of a RB in the 1st round.
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Postby awwchrist » Sun Sep 04, 2005 11:47 am

I was invited to draft in a 10 team yahoo league yesterday. I knew only 2 people (both of them with good fantasy heads on their shoulders), and was clueless about the rest. I knew it was an office league, so there had to be at least TWO owners who didn't know up from down.

That being said, I got random'd into the 9th slot.

Since I didn't care much about the league, and was assured that RB value would get pushed down..I decided to try a different drafting method than one I usually use.

QB's were weighted heavily.

Took Moss at 1.9. With Manning and Culpepper going in the first, took McNabb at 11.

Here's what I learned about playing with idiots:

It's hard to get value pushed down when drafting at the end of the round. I found that even when players started to slip in the 16-pick void from drafting 9th, they didn't slip far enough to me. Maybe my opinion is skewed because I was the only team needing it's first RB after two rounds, and they'd all go in that 16 pick void regardless. But I was very adamant about taking a BPA/VBD player at 4.2 if one had been there. And there wasn't.

That being said...I still ended up with 3.9 Westbrook and 4.2 Cadillac as my two starting RBs. Grabbed Larry Johnson at 5.9.
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Postby Gnu314 » Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:42 pm

Awwchrist that sounds a lot like my local league too but I fared slightly better. The best RB in the draft lasted till about pick 25, just 4 more picks before I could have really taken advantage of them at 3.09/4.02.
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Postby Tiki » Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:29 pm

I think it's hard to draft with idiots in your league and people who actually know what they are doing. In my draft that I had last week, this kid drafted Ward Moss and TO. In the first four rounds. He also got KJ as his RB. But to me that strat will bite you in your ass. Cause if one of starting RBs goes down (KJ or JJ Arrington in this case) his team will go to shambles. Yeah he has the best Wr's but thats it. But than again that draft was crazy someone drafted Tatum Bell in the 3rd, and amzingly got Westbrooke in the fourth! I can't beleive Westbrooke slipped under my radar... With 10th pick I got Deuce and Jamal so I wasn't really concetrataing on RBs...So I had a few idiots and a few good drafters...My league is crazy!
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