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Fact of Fiction: S Alexander will outperform LT

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Fact of Fiction: S Alexander will outperform LT

Postby josebach » Sat Sep 03, 2005 8:26 am

I'm seriously leaning towards fact. 2 reasons.
1) Last year, Alexander had a 4.8 YPC average and LT had 3.9 YPC average.
2) This year, Seatle's SOS for RBs is easier than it was last year and San Diego's is harder.

I've pretty much already decided to draft Alexander. Am I crazy?
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Postby creamdoorthirtyniner » Sat Sep 03, 2005 8:40 am

That's not much hard evidence to bank your move on. I'd look past the stats and nto the RB's respective situation. Who looks to be more of a threat out of the backfield, who'll get more carries, things like that, if you aren't impressed with LT's superior talent.
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Postby Matthias » Sat Sep 03, 2005 8:50 am

and then look at how many times san diego busted up the over on the vegas line last year.
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Postby josebach » Sat Sep 03, 2005 8:58 am

creamdoorthirtyniner wrote:That's not much hard evidence to bank your move on. I'd look past the stats and nto the RB's respective situation. Who looks to be more of a threat out of the backfield, who'll get more carries, things like that, if you aren't impressed with LT's superior talent.


Weeks 14-16 matchups were also key in my decision.

I believe the emergence of the passing game and Antonio Gates in San Diego last year took a lot of emphasis off of pass attemempts to LT. LT's receptions dropped from 100 in 03 to 53 in 04. That's huge. I'm not quite sure why his YPC average was 1.4 yds less in 04 than it was in 03, but it's definitely disturbing. Plus, with the emergence of a solid Backup in Sproles... that very well might cut into his carries. With a solid backup, he'll be given breathers... no question.

All this AND San Diego has to play the AFC East this year?

I'm not saying SA is more talented. It's just that my gut is telling me he'll put up better numbers this year. My gut is usually right.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:02 am

Tomlinson played most of last year hurt and only finished 17 points behind SA in a standard league. Thats about 1 point a week. Nearly negligble, especially since LT had I believe that groin problem. I'd bank on him outperforming SA, if both are injury free.
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Postby BigMusky » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:22 am

I have considered this as well...but then you look at who LT2 plays during the playoffs and you gotta take him. Indy and Kansas City in weeks 15/16.
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Postby lsufan » Sat Sep 03, 2005 4:22 pm

Yea, im kind of torn between these two guy as well. I have the first pick in a league that drafts Wed and can't decide. My gut is also saying SA but the majority think LT2 all the way. The majority is usually right and since I got SA in my yahoo league listed below i'll likely go with LT2 for a change.
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Postby Manja » Sat Sep 03, 2005 5:19 pm

lsufan wrote:Yea, im kind of torn between these two guy as well. I have the first pick in a league that drafts Wed and can't decide. My gut is also saying SA but the majority think LT2 all the way. The majority is usually right and since I got SA in my yahoo league listed below i'll likely go with LT2 for a change.


Try and trade down a spot.
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Postby johnrambo » Sat Sep 03, 2005 6:22 pm

Look at LT2's #S for the last 4 regular season games when he was healthy. He was an animal.
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Postby Gunslinger » Sat Sep 03, 2005 8:44 pm

Manja wrote:
lsufan wrote:Yea, im kind of torn between these two guy as well. I have the first pick in a league that drafts Wed and can't decide. My gut is also saying SA but the majority think LT2 all the way. The majority is usually right and since I got SA in my yahoo league listed below i'll likely go with LT2 for a change.


Try and trade down a spot.


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