Dang pawnking, I wish I knew statistics!!!
You most likely have a great analytical mind for things like this, being a chess player and all.
This does sound like a cool thing to work on, but I would have no idea where to start. I will tell you this, though...it is MUCH easier to pick football ladders than it is to pick baseball ladders. I don't know how many of you played on the baseball site, but we've only had one week out of 22
where an overwhelming majority of the players have gotten at least 3 consecutive picks. The only reason that happened was because all the favorites actually won that day. Many weeks a score of 10 (4 correct picks) wins, and that's usually only one or two people!
It's simple math. It's much harder for baseball teams to win every time out on a particular day of the week (Sunday)...the best teams only have a .600 win percentage - and that's only if you win over 100 games!
. There are only about 2-3 teams that do that each year. So, even though there are a SMALLER number of games to pick each week (15 instead of 16 in football), the chances of someone picking all the correct winners is significantly lower in baseball.
In football, the best teams normally have a win percentage of .625 to .814, and that counts every team that goes 10-6 to 13-3. There are normally about 8 teams that finish 10-6 and above.
Therefore, there is just a higher probability of certain teams winning week in and week out. As long as you put the "sure thing" teams down at the bottom, you should get at least 3-4 correct picks each week barring an upset. It just depends on the matchups for that day. If there are a lot of good teams playing each other, the scores normally trend lower. If it's good against bad as a majority, we have weeks where over 50% of the players get 6-10 picks in a row.