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BEST defenses - Week 2 - Formula results !!!

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BEST defenses - Week 2 - Formula results !!!

Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Sep 13, 2005 8:45 am

WARNING!

OK, I was not going to do this, because I felt that people might get turned off towards my formula if they tried it out and it picked losers for the first couple of weeks, but I've been swamped with requests from people who want me to run it "just for them" so that they can get an idea of what it might look like.... Since I can't reply to all of these requests individually, I have decided to post the results of the formula based on week 1 data, ONLY.... Now, there are a few things you have to keep in mind when examining this data:

1) This formula works based on averages, meaning the more data that is fed into the formula, the better the results which will come out..... Since my only data source for this running is week 1, the data which is output is inherently suspect.... Use these results at your own risk....

2) All defenses who played tough offenses in week 1 will be substantially downgraded on this list, based on their week 1 matchup (see Baltimore)..... And all defenses which played a suspect offense in week 1 will be substantially upgraded on this list, based on their week 1 matchup (see Indianapolis)....

3) All defenses which play an opponent this week who faced a tough defense last week will be substantially upgraded because of the fact that this formula is cumulative, and takes all past performances into consideration (see San Francisco)...


So, for the benefit of those who asked, and having given fair WARNING that this data is based solely on week 1 performances and therefore subject to a great degree of error, here are the best defenses to play in week 2, according to my formula:




1) Pittsburgh: -7192
2) Buffalo: -5047
3) Detroit: -4906
4) Atlanta: -3956
5) San Francisco: -3933
6) Cincinnati: -3400
7) Cleveland: -3238
8) Philadelphia: -3042
9) Miami: -3035
10) Arizona: -2929
11) Washington: -2911
12) Dallas: -2683
13) Indianapolis: -2385
14) Seattle: -2318
15) Tampa Bay: -2217
16) Kansas City: -2153
17) San Diego: -2020
18) Chicago: -1988
19) St. Louis: -1879
20) New Orleans: -1704
21) New York (N): -1396
22) New England: -1304
23) Baltimore: -1191
24) Jacksonville: -916
25) Minnesota: -787
26) Tennessee: -497
27) Green Bay: -256
28) Denver: -152
29) New York (A): 1143
30) Carolina: 1589
31) Oakland: 2417
32) Houston: 2828



Some glaring problems:

1) San Francisco benefits on this list because of the tough way in which Atlanta played Philadelphia last night.... DO NOT expect them to be as good a play as they appear based on the data....

2) Baltimore's defense gets a bum rap because of the fact that they had to play Indianapolis in week 1, and therefore acquired no sacks and no turnovers.... In reality, Baltimore is the best play you could make this week, based on not only their defensive prowess, but also their powder-puff match-up....

3) Cincy's D gets a boost on this list because of the horrid nature of Minnesota's play against Tampa this past week AND the fact that they, themselves, played Cleveland in the opener.... But, expect Minnesota to rebound, and for Cincy to be not nearly as good a play as they appear.....


It's misconceptions like these which are why I wanted to hold off until week 4, but I think your average cafe reader can understand that this data is skewed in places, and make decisions keeping that in mind.....


Enjoy..... ;-D
Last edited by Plindsey88 on Tue Sep 13, 2005 8:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Sep 13, 2005 8:52 am

Note:

New York (A) refers to the Jets....

New York (N) refers to the Giants....
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Postby houstonoilers » Tue Sep 13, 2005 9:04 am

AWESOME!!!! I appreciate the info. I know its a risk but what isnt in the first couple of weeks of fantasy football. I think I will drop the Jets defense and pick Chicagos?


Thanks again for your help.
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Postby hastur » Tue Sep 13, 2005 9:08 am

Plindsey88 rocks on
Ranks defense accordingly
True fantasy gold
Go Cowboys!
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Postby Redskins Win » Tue Sep 13, 2005 9:25 am

Good stuff P. ;-D especially the 1, 2, 3, synopsis at the end.
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Postby S2 » Tue Sep 13, 2005 10:16 am

Thanks for hard work!

I think Detroit is on this list. I picked them up this week and thought they looked very improved against a Packer Offense who is always above average. Put them agains the Bears and you get a great matchup. I look for their offense to control the ball as well.
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Postby houstonoilers » Tue Sep 13, 2005 10:49 am

thanks!
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Postby biju » Tue Sep 13, 2005 10:52 am

These are the best threads in the cafe once the season starts. ;-D
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Postby stoner420 » Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:08 am

yeah i snagged detroit in my league... seems like a very favorable matchup with many turnovers as a result.
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Re: BEST defenses - Week 2 - Formula results !!!

Postby The_Dude » Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:38 am

Plindsey88 wrote:So, for the benefit of those who asked, and having given fair WARNING that this data is based solely on week 1 performances and therefore subject to a great degree of error, here are the best defenses to play in week 2, according to my formula:


Anyone want to bet even money on whether someone complains about San Francisco or Cincy "letting them down big time" and that Plindsey is to blame for it?*


*This post is meant for comedic value only and The Dude neither actually wants to take this bet, nor condones gambling, unless though resideth in a place where it ith legal to do so and thou art not an addict.
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