Most Targeted WR's Week 1 - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Most Targeted WR's Week 1

Moderator: Football Moderators

Postby GreatestShowOnEarth » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:29 pm

Ken,
Curtis is the number 3 wr in ST Louis correct? i havent been watching any of their games so i was wondering do Curtis and McDonald split duties as the 3rd wr? Is Curtis in more plays? I picked him up on the waiver wire today and thought it was a steal considering the number of passes thrown his way last week.
Image
GreatestShowOnEarth
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 6525
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: South Stadium

Postby MadScott » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:34 pm

GreatestShowOnEarth wrote:Ken,
Curtis is the number 3 wr in ST Louis correct? i havent been watching any of their games so i was wondering do Curtis and McDonald split duties as the 3rd wr? Is Curtis in more plays? I picked him up on the waiver wire today and thought it was a steal considering the number of passes thrown his way last week.

McDonald is technically the slot WR so he may be in there for more plays, but how can you argue with the # of targets that Curtis had?
Image
I like simple pleasures, like butter in my ass, lollipops in my mouth. That's just me.
MadScott
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerSweet 16 SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5924
Joined: 27 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby GreatestShowOnEarth » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:41 pm

exactly what i was thinkin Mad.
Image
GreatestShowOnEarth
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 6525
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: South Stadium

Postby proKrastinate » Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:36 pm

I don't know if anyone else considered this into the equation, but rather than looking at how many times a person was targeted I think a really good piece of information to consider was how many times the QB threw the ball.

After getting those two numbers, you can determine if you think they will be throwing the ball that much all year, or that number will fall to some more realistic average. A guy who gets 9 targets because his QB threw 50 times in one game doesn't sit well in my stomach if I believe they will be throwing about half that on a normal basis. That equats to 4-5 targets and possibly just 2-3 catches.
Image
proKrastinate
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 889
Joined: 25 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:23 pm

GreatestShowOnEarth wrote:Ken,
Curtis is the number 3 wr in ST Louis correct? i havent been watching any of their games so i was wondering do Curtis and McDonald split duties as the 3rd wr? Is Curtis in more plays? I picked him up on the waiver wire today and thought it was a steal considering the number of passes thrown his way last week.


Curtis plays the slot, but McDonald rotates in on 3 wide sets as well. So when there are 3 WRs on the field, It could be McDonald or even Looker on the field at not Curtis. The Rams will even run a lot of FOUR wide sets, so it's not like Curtis is lacking playing time compared to other #3 WRs.. it's just the fact that he is a #3 WR.

You have to remember that in week 1 the Ram's were playing down virtually the entire game. If you saw the first quarter you noticed that the Rams ran a lot of sets on 1st and 2nd down with only 2 WRs... And then they would bring in Curtis on 3rd down. He sure got targeted a lot on 3rd down, but how much can you produce if you're only playing in one third of the offensive plays?

Later in the game, they were forced to go 3-4 wide every down because they were behind multiple scores. That is when Curtis started racking up the targets and playing entire series. I don't believe you will see that every week from the Ram's. More likely Curtis will be in on almost every 3rd down with the occasional 1st and 2nd down play.. Enough targets to be a solid backup fantasy WR because of the offense, but not enough to rely on as a starter.
--

Forget the targets for a second and look at the box score.
How many times will an offense get 80+ plays, and/or throw the ball more than 50 times? Even the pass crazy Martz would never gameplan to throw the ball that much.. Bulger only passed 50 or more times one time in his career, last year in week 12 against Gree Bay. In that game he had 448 yards passing. (Curtis was 6/67/0 in that game btw). Anyways here is the box score:

Bulger - 34/56 362/2/1 (56 passes)

S.Jackson/M.Faulk - 22/72/0 (22 rushes by RBs)

T. Holt - 10/125/0
S. McDonald 7/73/0
K. Curtis 7/63/0
I. Bruce 3/61/1

Notice how the #3/#4 WRs (Curtis/McDonald) are more productive than the #2(Bruce). Curtis racks up 7/63/0, but he is only the 4th most productive Ram WR in terms of fantasy points!

-------

These are Curtis' targets in the first half when the game was close:

3-7-STL15 (12:24) M.Bulger pass to K.Curtis to SL 24 for 9 yards (M.Adams).

3-11-SF12 (4:37) M.Bulger pass incomplete to K.Curtis.

3-9-STL15 (1:47) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass to K.Curtis to SL 30 for 15 yards (J.Peterson).

3-16-SF23 (13:16) M.Bulger pass incomplete to K.Curtis (T.Parrish).

2-15-STL39 (7:36) M.Bulger pass incomplete to K.Curtis (D.Smith).


Notice how they all come on either third down or in obvious passing situations. But, once the Niner's went up several scores in the 2nd half, the flow of the game dictated more pure passing formations.. it's not gonna be like that every week IMO.

Anyways I would characterize Curtis' first half play as optimal under normal conditions (not down by multiple touchdowns). He was the target of virtually every single 3rd down pass and he converted a good percentage of them.

5 targets - 2/24/0
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Azrael » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:44 pm

rustyk wrote:i understand that mccnabb forced a lot of passes to owens, and rightfully so with him being by far the best reciever on the team. i wasnt trying to insult any players when i said that, i was just looking into the numbers a little more out of curiousity.


With a weak schedule and even less of a supporting cast this year I look for Owens to have a career high in catches this year.
Image
Azrael
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 8283
(Past Year: 7)
Joined: 29 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Keeping da cafe sucka free for 9 years straight

Postby proKrastinate » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:38 pm

kensat that is exactly what I was refering to.
Image
proKrastinate
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 889
Joined: 25 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Kilroy » Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:11 am

Kensat30 wrote:
VHawk15 wrote:Bulger can't be accused of locking in on one receiver all the time, or only looking for Holt.



As a Bulger owner/Torry Holt owner for the past two years.. I've come to the realization that Bulger actually seems to have a prefrence for Bruce. Don't get me wrong, Holt is a playmaker and will get his, but unless they are playing in Ram's stadium he is not necessarily the #1 option in that offense in any given week.

Bruce gets the 1st and best look (endzone pass) on a lot of plays. For example this Niner's game this weekend, Holt lit up the scoreboard, but Bruce was the guy they were looking to hit in the endzone. I don't remember a single pass to Holt in the endzone, but I know that Bruce had several. The only time Holt seperates himself from Bruce and is truly the #1 goto WR is when the Ram's play at home on the turf. Holt is the best fantasy WR in the league when he plays at home IMO. No one in the league can stop his 15 yard out pattern on third down.

Bulger has really evolved the past couple of years into throwing to the open man (Curtis/McDonald) and not locking onto Holt. It's the reason why he's going to be an elite QB and lead the NFL in passing yardage this season. The Ram's have a lot of people that can get open. Not too many drives are gonna end with Bulger forcing the ball to Holt for an INT when Curtis is open on an 8 yard comeback.

If I was confident that Bulger would stay healthy for 16 games behind his o-line, I would predict that Bulger breaks Marino's yardage record this season. For every game that he throws for under 250 yards, he has another game where he's approaching 400.
----

P.S. - If it weren't for McDonald, you could make something of Kevin Curtis high targets numbers this week. I could easily see Curtis being a mini-Stokely in terms of yardage (1,000+ yard WR), but with McDonald in on some 3 wide sets, it's really tough to see him keeping that kind of pace. If Bruce or Holt were to get injured, Curtis would automatically be a top15 WR.


100% Dead On Kensat. I may not have seen have many Rams games as you have, but Bulger definately seems to prefer Bruce for Whatever Reason.
Image

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." -- Voltaire
Kilroy
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 13587
Joined: 6 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Making My List and Checking It Twice...

Previous

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 16:40 hours
(and 43 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact