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Vegas on Week 2, for real

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Vegas on Week 2, for real

Postby Wesley Walker » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:18 am

Here's the number of points Vegas expects each team to score for Week 2 (according to the over/under and point spread):

Ind 27.5
Phi 27.25
KC 27.25
Oak 26.25
Cin 25.25
Den 24
GB 23.75
NYG 23.5
NE 23.25
Ari 22.75
Min 22.25
Pit 22.25
STL 21.75
NYJ 21.5
SD 21
Dal 21
Atl 20.75
Sea 20.75
NO 20.5
Car 20.25
Bal 20
TB 19
Jac 18.5
Det 17.5
Cle 17.25
Ten 16.5
Buf 16.5
Hou 16.25
Chi 15.5
Mia 15.5
Was 15
SF 13.75
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:29 am

Some thoughts:


With the new and improved D in KC, I think I might have to take the under on KC v. Oakland if the line is really 53.5 ....

I think I'd have to take Atlanta over Seattle with no spread...

Cleveland + 6.5 is very tempting against a Green Bay team that seems to be reeling....

The over is looking like a nice play in the Indy v. Jax matchup if the line is 46....
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:31 am

Ill take CIN -3 v MIN.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:34 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Ill take CIN -3 v MIN.



Somehow I knew you were going to say that..... LOL....


Your hatred runs deep, sir....
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:00 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Ill take CIN -3 v MIN.



Somehow I knew you were going to say that..... LOL....


Your hatred runs deep, sir....


:-b
Hey - I call it like I see it. I see MIN struggling a great deal right now learning a completely new offense. Ive said from the beginning that Culpepper was overrated both in fantasy and as an NFL QB. He has serious flaws in his game that Moss was able to smooth over. Im not saying he's bad or anything - but for what this offense has become without Moss - yes - his flaws will become much more apparant and MIN will struggle to move the ball.

Defensively they have a lot of good names, but that doesnt make them a good defense - yet. It will take some time for them to jell and they still have holes at LB that can be exploited.

As a division rival Homer I absolutely love seeing MIN and GB struggling - but my reasoning isnt coming from that standpoint like many said when I first started talking about this. I also expected CHI to be a much better team than the majority thought the preseason - if Im such a Homer, why would I say one division rival will be much worse than the majority is expecting while the other would be much better? I know Im wrong often, but my theories and projections are rarely based on emotions.

That being said - MIN is no better than an 8-8 team this yr. }:-)
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Postby Gnu314 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:20 pm

Plindsey you like over for Indy/Jax? I actually think under is a good play... I'ed under for Indy at 27.5 for that matter.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:38 pm

Gnu314 wrote:Plindsey you like over for Indy/Jax? I actually think under is a good play... I'ed under for Indy at 27.5 for that matter.



That game is going to be a shoot out.... The last time the two teams met in Indy the score was 27-24.... I see no reason why this week should be any different....
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Postby skibrett15 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:50 pm

to be honest, this really belongs in the lines and spreads forum. That said, no way the Jets are scoring 21 points this week.
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Postby Wesley Walker » Wed Sep 14, 2005 3:12 pm

skibrett15 wrote:to be honest, this really belongs in the lines and spreads forum. That said, no way the Jets are scoring 21 points this week.


This discussion of the spread and the over/under is missing the point and, in fact, may be more suited for some other forum.

The point: The point is to show what Vegas thinks these teams will score this week, because they are very shrewd, smart, mofos who decide these things. It's not a bad way to consider which players to start and which to sit, or which defense to play.
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Postby Turnip » Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:15 pm

Wesley Walker wrote:
skibrett15 wrote:to be honest, this really belongs in the lines and spreads forum. That said, no way the Jets are scoring 21 points this week.


This discussion of the spread and the over/under is missing the point and, in fact, may be more suited for some other forum.

The point: The point is to show what Vegas thinks these teams will score this week, because they are very shrewd, smart, mofos who decide these things. It's not a bad way to consider which players to start and which to sit, or which defense to play.


Actually their goal is not to predict what the actual score will be, but rather to predict a total score or point spread that about 50% of the gambling masses think is too high, and 50% think is too low.
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