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Vegas on Week 2, for real

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Postby Wesley Walker » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:47 pm

Turnip wrote:
Wesley Walker wrote:
skibrett15 wrote:to be honest, this really belongs in the lines and spreads forum. That said, no way the Jets are scoring 21 points this week.


This discussion of the spread and the over/under is missing the point and, in fact, may be more suited for some other forum.

The point: The point is to show what Vegas thinks these teams will score this week, because they are very shrewd, smart, mofos who decide these things. It's not a bad way to consider which players to start and which to sit, or which defense to play.


Actually their goal is not to predict what the actual score will be, but rather to predict a total score or point spread that about 50% of the gambling masses think is too high, and 50% think is too low.


You're absolutely right. Still, they (the Vegas Gods) do this by deciding for themselves how many points are likely to be scored in the game. They make money only if half the money is on one side and half is on the other. Then, whichever way the results goes, they make money. They do not have and end result in mind when they set the over/under -- or the spread. In other words, they're not trying to fool anyone. They aren't trying to take advantage of people on, say, the Patriots bandwagon and set the spread higher than they should, counting on people betting on the Pats beating a 14-point spread. They would if they could, but that sort of spread would be too easy to beat the other way -- and the bigger the money, the smarter the better.

So this method for predicting how many points will be scored is imperfect. But it's more accurate than many methods including, I dare say, some people's in-depth statistical predictions based on past performance and all that. I know because I've done those too.
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Postby Azrael » Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:57 pm

Take Nebraska giving 10 to Pitt. I mean, C'mon, they lost to Ohio. Should be a heckuva game, battle of the suckass pro-coaches.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:04 am

Wesley Walker wrote:But it's more accurate than many methods including, I dare say, some people's in-depth statistical predictions based on past performance and all that. I know because I've done those too.



Ouch.... Is that a jab? ;-)
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Postby Wesley Walker » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:58 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
Wesley Walker wrote:But it's more accurate than many methods including, I dare say, some people's in-depth statistical predictions based on past performance and all that. I know because I've done those too.



Ouch.... Is that a jab? ;-)


Not a jab at you, my man. In fact, your postings in the Cafe inspired me to start posting this stuff last season. I'm just saying that ANYONE's number crunching can be rivaled by those old coves who set the odds in Vegas.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:31 am

Wesley Walker wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:
Wesley Walker wrote:But it's more accurate than many methods including, I dare say, some people's in-depth statistical predictions based on past performance and all that. I know because I've done those too.



Ouch.... Is that a jab? ;-)


Not a jab at you, my man. In fact, your postings in the Cafe inspired me to start posting this stuff last season. I'm just saying that ANYONE's number crunching can be rivaled by those old coves who set the odds in Vegas.



That's probably true.... In fact, I wouldn't put my numbers up against theirs for anything...
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