Fantasy Football Cafe Forum

by **koffeeboy** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:06 pm

Always a winner wrote:
koffeeboy wrote:Now this is why you don't take a QB in Rd 1, period!!!!

Palmer (in Rd 5) and 2 stud RB's in (Rd's 1 & 2)....

Over Manning or Culpepper anyday.

So a team of:

Jamal Lewis
Kevin Jones
Trent Green

Would be kicking serious butt right now? Don't think so. I'm a RB study theory fan myself, but you can't rip on everyone who took a QB in the 1st round based on a few games this early in the year. I haven't looked at this in detail, but I think the bust rate for 1st round RBs is about the same as QBs. It's also WAY too early to judge entire seasons from only two games. Wait until week 5.

Funny you chose those 3... I played against those three today in my best league....

My McNabb, SA, C Williams and Owens took care of their sorry performances!!!!!

by **Matthias** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:46 pm

koffeeboy wrote:Now this is why you don't take a QB in Rd 1, period!!!!

Palmer (in Rd 5) and 2 stud RB's in (Rd's 1 & 2)....

Over Manning or Culpepper anyday.

koffeeboy wrote:My McNabb, SA, C Williams and Owens took care of their sorry performances!!!!!

sa = rd 1
to = rd 2
mcnabb = rd 3
williams = rd 4

glad to see you follow your own 2 stud rb's in rd's 1 & 2 advice. shows just how credible it is.

by **Vanter** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:39 am

LOL

Nice observation, Matthias. ;-D

by **Gnu314** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:47 am

I know the guy that took McNabb in the first round of my draft (WHY!?) kicked my butt today. I'm down by 21 with Deuce and Witten left to play.

Just because a first round pick has bad numbers one week dosn't mean anything. Inheriently fantasy football is a game of middle round picks, identifying key sleepers, and getting timely waiver wire pickups. I've never found that my season has been lost because of a poor performance from one of my studs (although you can certainly win it come playoffs.)

by **Warhawk** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:40 am

Ack, i woulda won if I had started westbrook instead of lewis. Or even anyone instead of Marvin Harrison (but yeah, I gotta start him every week) :-P

Great performances by Hasselbeck, Housh, and the Indy D wasted.

Don't ya just hate it when you would've beaten everyone in your league EXCEPT the guy you played that week? Sheesh. !+)

by **BrutallyHuge** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:04 am

QB: McNabb (2nd)
RB: T. Jones (FA)
RB: S. Davis (FA)
WR: TO (1st)
WR: Ward (3rd)

FA RBs 4ever!

by **Cooner** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:58 am

ok, so this guy said it kinda stupidly, but he's got a point.

The people who take QBs in the first round are depending on their round 1 QB to score many more points than a round 5 or so QB by a good deal, while the people who take a RB in round 1 can know their RB will score many more points than a 5th rounder. Last year, Manning and Culpepper did just that, and everyone jumped up and down about the end of an era, how some QBs could completely outperform the rest of the QB field and be legit round 1 picks.

The issue is that this value is tough to achieve for a QB- he must consistently put up big games, and of the four games played by these two guys, none of those games are even close to the level necessary to lap the field.

It's all about value folks, and a QB in the first round just isn't likely to be worth it- it's an extremely tight line to perform that much better than the rest of the field.

Now, I'm not saying you must go RB/RB, or RB/WR, or anything like that. I personally drafted McNabb in the 3rd in one league, because I knew that several members of the league were looking to grab QBs early since we start two. In that case, McNabb had the best value over players likely to be available later. But Manning can have a fantastic season, almost on par with last year, but still not be worth a top 3 pick. And frankly, performing on par or better than last year, when he was worth a top 3 pick, simply can't happen with even one more game like yesterday.

by **Mookie4ever** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:41 am

The only ones laughing are the stud-wr theory people. If you were at the end of the first round and picked Moss and TO with picks 12 and 13 you are probably sitting pretty right now.