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Sell High / Buy Low Week 2

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Postby Charlie24 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:55 pm

I'd put KJ on the buy low list. Detroit is bound to get their O going sooner or later and Jones has superb talent. Depending on what you give up for him, I think KJ would be a great pickup
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Postby BGbootha » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:30 pm

So if Davis is a sell high candidate, would that make Foster a buy low????
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:36 pm

J2thez929 wrote:Sell high: S. Davis, Willie Parker, Caddy, T. Jones

Buy low: C-pepp, J-Lew, C. Dillon, Dom Davis, and A. Johnson


Draft position and early performance do not necessarily make good buy low/sell high candidates. Every year there are guys that legitimately break out, and guys who have proven themselves 10 times before that legitimately bust.

Thinking that just because a guy was drafted highly and had a bad start makes him a good buy low candidate is a mistake IMO. Many of these guys (Cpepp, Lewis, Dillon, AJ) you're still going to have to pay a premium for. To trade for AJ for instance, you're still going to have to give value similar to right around where he was drafted. You're buying low, but not THAT low to justify it if they legitimately bust.

Cpepp, Lewis, and AJ all look bad right now, really bad. Yet the owners who paid a lot for them are not going to take their true value for them. The truth is, these guys are in some awful situations right now, as Minn, Balt, and Houston are all in very deep and it's going to take more than these guys alone to bring their numbers back up. You could very easily end up "buying low" for these guys and still vastly overpaying. Likewise, actually watching Dillon has been rather painful this year. I think he's more likely to bounce back than those above but he has definitely looked a lot slower than last year.

Guys like Mike Anderson, who people didn't pay a premium for in the draft and are more likely to give up on are better buy low candidates.

Likewise, a guy like S. Davis you're still not going to get good value out of. I really dislike S. Davis as a "sell high" right now as people just seem to hate this guy and give him no chance at every step of his comeback. Despite his numbers, you're still not going to get much out of him, you're better off holding on to a guy with the upside of a top 5 FF RB than trading him away for a tier 3 WR, which reallistically is probably all you could get out of him right now because people refuse to see his true value.

I really like what I saw another poster mention (don't remember where it was). Rather than trying to sell Davis high (but not high enough), buy Foster low to handcuff Davis' only real concern -- injury. Foster wasn't a guy that people paid a premium for in the draft, and his value is now dirt cheap as Davis out-carried Foster something like 25-3 last week until the game was locked up. Foster is just a backup now, there's not even a RBBC in Carolina, cuff that Carolina RB situation at a dirt cheap price and you just nabbed a top 10 FF RB situation by giving up whatever 10th+ rounder you spent on Davis in the draft and whatever small price Foster would cost you.

As for the others, TJ is a decent sell high I suppose, though I'm guessing you couldn't get much for him since pretty much everyone knows his lifespan as a starter is limited. Caddy is a bad sell high, his value will probably only go up. Parker is a risk to sell high, he's definitely the one you could get the most value out of which could potentially work out since he could end up not getting a lot of carries, but if he does continue getting the rock he's in a tremendous situation to succeed and you could end up giving up the next HUGE (not just big, HUGE) thing for a "sell high" price that will seem oh so low in a few months.
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Postby maddog60 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:40 pm

How about Manning as a buy low. It will still take alot to get him, but those owners that took him #1 overall will be relinquishing him for a lot less than two weeks ago. And look at his upcoming schedule: TEN, HOU, SF, STL, these are some easy pickings.
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Postby Kensat30 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:46 pm

Dr. Duran Duran wrote:
J2thez929 wrote:Sell high: S. Davis, Willie Parker, Caddy, T. Jones

Buy low: C-pepp, J-Lew, C. Dillon, Dom Davis, and A. Johnson


I couldn't agree more with that particular buy low. That ship will right itself. As a Colts fan, I truly hope they continue to lose, but it's the Patriots, they will somehow find a way to turn things around.


Dillon looks like he's 40 this season. He lost a step.
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Postby J2thez929 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:00 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
J2thez929 wrote:Sell high: S. Davis, Willie Parker, Caddy, T. Jones

Buy low: C-pepp, J-Lew, C. Dillon, Dom Davis, and A. Johnson


Draft position and early performance do not necessarily make good buy low/sell high candidates. Every year there are guys that legitimately break out, and guys who have proven themselves 10 times before that legitimately bust.

Thinking that just because a guy was drafted highly and had a bad start makes him a good buy low candidate is a mistake IMO. Many of these guys (Cpepp, Lewis, Dillon, AJ) you're still going to have to pay a premium for. To trade for AJ for instance, you're still going to have to give value similar to right around where he was drafted. You're buying low, but not THAT low to justify it if they legitimately bust.

Cpepp, Lewis, and AJ all look bad right now, really bad. Yet the owners who paid a lot for them are not going to take their true value for them. The truth is, these guys are in some awful situations right now, as Minn, Balt, and Houston are all in very deep and it's going to take more than these guys alone to bring their numbers back up. You could very easily end up "buying low" for these guys and still vastly overpaying. Likewise, actually watching Dillon has been rather painful this year. I think he's more likely to bounce back than those above but he has definitely looked a lot slower than last year.

Guys like Mike Anderson, who people didn't pay a premium for in the draft and are more likely to give up on are better buy low candidates.

Likewise, a guy like S. Davis you're still not going to get good value out of. I really dislike S. Davis as a "sell high" right now as people just seem to hate this guy and give him no chance at every step of his comeback. Despite his numbers, you're still not going to get much out of him, you're better off holding on to a guy with the upside of a top 5 FF RB than trading him away for a tier 3 WR, which reallistically is probably all you could get out of him right now because people refuse to see his true value.

I really like what I saw another poster mention (don't remember where it was). Rather than trying to sell Davis high (but not high enough), buy Foster low to handcuff Davis' only real concern -- injury. Foster wasn't a guy that people paid a premium for in the draft, and his value is now dirt cheap as Davis out-carried Foster something like 25-3 last week until the game was locked up. Foster is just a backup now, there's not even a RBBC in Carolina, cuff that Carolina RB situation at a dirt cheap price and you just nabbed a top 10 FF RB situation by giving up whatever 10th+ rounder you spent on Davis in the draft and whatever small price Foster would cost you.

As for the others, TJ is a decent sell high I suppose, though I'm guessing you couldn't get much for him since pretty much everyone knows his lifespan as a starter is limited. Caddy is a bad sell high, his value will probably only go up. Parker is a risk to sell high, he's definitely the one you could get the most value out of which could potentially work out since he could end up not getting a lot of carries, but if he does continue getting the rock he's in a tremendous situation to succeed and you could end up giving up the next HUGE (not just big, HUGE) thing for a "sell high" price that will seem oh so low in a few months.


Very nice post Bagel. I agree with some parts. I guess it all depends on what everyone's value of "sell-high" and "buy-low". The reason I listed S. Davis is b/c I do not think that he will get 3
TDs in one game for the rest of the season. So, in turn, if you can deal this guy to get a decent WR/TE you need, then you've improved your team by selling Davis after a great game. Also, I've been seeing plenty of Caddy/S. Davis offers in the other forum for guys like Harrison, CJ, or Horn and some are saying that they would be giving up waaaaay too much to get Marv or CJ. So not everyone will be so wise to refuse S. Davis and a hot Caddy. Again, its all perception on the player. Some people think Caddy will be at top 10 RB while others think he will drop off b/c he is a rook. So, in turn, he would get a great sell-high canidate if you can find someone who is really likes him.

As for Dillon, this guys has performed every year. He has a solid o-line on a very good team. Its not like he plays for a bunch of stiffs. Furthermore, the Pats like to establish a running and when the weather starts getting cold, Dillon should heat up. But hey, thats just my opinion. I would love to get Dillon on my team and only give up Willie Parker(if I had him). I just feel that once Duce and Bettis return, Parker will not get as many touches and goaline carries. Trust me - the Bus did not sign a one-year deal to just sit on the bench. He will get his touches just b/c of who he is and the goaline presence he commands.

TJ's case is pretty easy. Benson is the future and TJ will slowly be faded out. Even if he doesn't fade out, its a RBBC which nobody likes.

AJ's value is very very low. I would bet that you could offer someone Driver or say L. Coles for AJ and someone make that deal. Yes, many fantasy owners understand AJ's potential value but some might just be fed up with his poor performance. That is why I listed AJ as a very good buy-low canidate.

Again, it all comes down to how everyone perceives these guys...
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