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Liveth by the Manning.........dieth by the Manning!

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Postby Red Stripe » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:20 pm

SwiperNoSwiping wrote:
Red Stripe wrote:And that's why I didn't rank Manning as a top 4 pick.


Cuz of his schedule?


No basically just referring the overall theme of the post. Didn't think Manning would put up numbers quite as well as last year and he'll have some bad games and plus he was a QB.
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Postby jjigglers » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:56 pm

maddog60 wrote:
Boozer wrote:Cornbread, you're right. In my league, all TD's are worth 6 pts and I could have gotten any QB and still have the team I wanted so Manning was the most logical choice to me.
(Manning, McAlister, J Jones, S Davis, C Johnson, S Smith, L Coles, Gonzo, Akers, Vikings DEF(UGH!!))


Manning - 1st round ADP
Duece - 1st round ADP
Jones - 2nd round ADP
Johnson - 2nd round ADP
Smith - 4th round ADP
Gonzo - 4th round ADP

Realistically, you shouldn't have been able to acquire one of Duece/Manning and Jones/Johnson. That would make your team dramatically different if the draft was competitive at all. I'd take Manning in first if I knew other drafters would slouch as much too.


Not everybody plays in the same size leagues.
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Postby duckbillgates » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:35 pm

Manning had 5 TDs in two games against Jacksonville and 1 TD in one game against Baltimore last year.
In other words, he's a touchdown and a half off his pace from last season, given the opponents.
If you're writing his first-round fantasy epithet, you're a fool ...
Need big trade advice:

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1158528#1158528
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Postby Flux » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:36 pm

jjigglers wrote:
maddog60 wrote:
Boozer wrote:Cornbread, you're right. In my league, all TD's are worth 6 pts and I could have gotten any QB and still have the team I wanted so Manning was the most logical choice to me.
(Manning, McAlister, J Jones, S Davis, C Johnson, S Smith, L Coles, Gonzo, Akers, Vikings DEF(UGH!!))


Manning - 1st round ADP
Duece - 1st round ADP
Jones - 2nd round ADP
Johnson - 2nd round ADP
Smith - 4th round ADP
Gonzo - 4th round ADP

Realistically, you shouldn't have been able to acquire one of Duece/Manning and Jones/Johnson. That would make your team dramatically different if the draft was competitive at all. I'd take Manning in first if I knew other drafters would slouch as much too.


Not everybody plays in the same size leagues.


Thats still ridiculous
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:37 am

i kept him in my league and still managed to put up 120 points for the week even with his poor performance.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:43 am

duckbillgates wrote:Manning had 5 TDs in two games against Jacksonville and 1 TD in one game against Baltimore last year.
In other words, he's a touchdown and a half off his pace from last season, given the opponents.
If you're writing his first-round fantasy epithet, you're a fool ...


Considering that last yr was the first and only time he finished as a top 10 fantasy player, I think annointing him as a first rd pick is similarly foolish.
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Postby Teh Jury » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:13 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Boozer wrote:Cornbread, you're right. In my league, all TD's are worth 6 pts and I could have gotten any QB and still have the team I wanted so Manning was the most logical choice to me.
(Manning, McAlister, J Jones, S Davis, C Johnson, S Smith, L Coles, Gonzo, Akers, Vikings DEF(UGH!!))


Let me see - Your draft went:
1 - Manning
2 - Deuce
3 - CJohnson
4 - Julie Jones
5 - Tony Gonzo
6 - SSmith
7 - Coles

You sure did get some steals there. When your opponents allow for this to happen you can pretty much take Ryan Leaf in the first and still have a great team. Nice draft, but I would honestly look for better competition next yr - playing in leagues where this sort of thing happens can end up causing you to get into bad habits.

Bottom line - in standard leagues where the scoring is either 50pass yds per point and 6 per TD or 25 pass per point and 4 per TD, then Peyton is not a 1st rd pick. Of course it all depends on the projection though - if you project Manning to repeat what he did last yr, then he is basically the #1 overall player in every format - if you expect him to regress back to his career averages, then he is at best an early to mid 2nd rd pick. Value based calculators will show this.


The usage of Ryan Leaf was random :-D
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Postby Matthias » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:28 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Boozer wrote:Thats a load of garbage. Manning is worth a first rounder, maybe not 1st pick but a first rounder. 28 TD's is nothing to be ashamed about, regardless of QB. He will throw at least 30 TD's.


Except for the fact that a large handful of guys picked 4-7 rounds later will all throw for 28+ TD's as well.


what it comes down to is points and point predictability. last week very likely will be manning's nadir. it's all well and good to start saying there will be a handful of qb's close to him and that there will be 8 rb's who will out value-pick him, but christ people... have you stuck out your necks and said WHO THOSE PEOPLE ARE???

as others have mentioned, there have been at least a dozen rb's who have sat down and taken a crap for an outing in the past two weeks. what you want, or at least what i want, from an early-round draft pick is predictable points. someone i can put in my lineup week 1 and completely forget about him until his bye week comes up. there are very few of these players. tomlinson and alexander were the consensus 1/2 just for this reason.

after them, however, you ran into a load of people with question marks.
* priest holmes? will he be injured? will lj cut into his time?
* edge? contract year. should be good. getting kind of old? will indy continue to be a pass-first offense?
* mcgahee? young stud or flash that would extinguish?

i could go on, but ya'll get the point. and those were the top 3 (in my mind, anyways) rb's after the big two. these don't inspire a vast amount of confidence. or at least not nearly the same amount of confidence that i get in seeing p. manning's name in my qb slot. or r. moss or t. owens in my wr slot (the point of another thread). (as an aside, i'm sure you all know how many snaps manning has missed in his career due to injury? ONE.)

and that's why, unless you're willing to put your name on one horse and tell me which rb you think will be the stud under vbd and which qb's are easy manning replacements, and don't want to just rely upon end-of-season statistics to point out point differentials that someone could have achieved had they known, i just can't take your arguments seriously.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:50 pm

Easy Manning replacements:

McNabb
Bulger
Collins

- these Qbs will have fantasy production close enough to Manning this yr that they will lower his value from last yr too much.

Holmes
LT
SA
Deuce
Edge

- These Rbs will have a greater value at the end of the yr.

Moss
TO

- These Wrs will be more valuable than Manning this yr.
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Postby Dazedncnfz » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:51 pm

Matthias wrote:what it comes down to is points and point predictability. last week very likely will be manning's nadir. it's all well and good to start saying there will be a handful of qb's close to him and that there will be 8 rb's who will out value-pick him, but christ people... have you stuck out your necks and said WHO THOSE PEOPLE ARE???

and that's why, unless you're willing to put your name on one horse and tell me which rb you think will be the stud under vbd and which qb's are easy manning replacements, and don't want to just rely upon end-of-season statistics to point out point differentials that someone could have achieved had they known, i just can't take your arguments seriously.


So all you want is name for "horse" that would be a better VBD player then Manning so that you take these arguments seriously...I'll give you just one. (since you obviously need to do your homework)

How about Farve? You want consistency...how about someone how avg 30TD a year 3500+ passing yards and hasn't missed a start in 12 years straight....oh and his ADP is Rd 7.

Maybe now you won't be such a wise ass....and until the time comes that your not..."i just can't take your arguments seriously."
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