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Liveth by the Manning.........dieth by the Manning!

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Postby Matthias » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:05 pm

alright. thread bookmarked. will revisit at the end of the season.

and i'm not being a smart-ass. i'm being realistic here. it's very easy, at the end of the season, to compare the production of the top rb or #5 rb to the production of the #25 or #30 or what have you rb and then compare the #1 qb production to the #10.

it is less easy to accurately predict, before a season begins, on who will be the #5-performing rb or the #10-performing qb. therefore, for me at least, i'm willing to reach in a draft to pick someone whose production i know will be there. so, even if i could have had someone who had a higher x-number in the same draft spot, the question is: what would be the probability that i would draft that particular individual? and that's why you have to pick your horse. and not just point at numbers at the end of the season.
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Postby maddog60 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:45 pm

Matthias wrote:what it comes down to is points and point predictability. last week very likely will be manning's nadir. it's all well and good to start saying there will be a handful of qb's close to him and that there will be 8 rb's who will out value-pick him, but christ people... have you stuck out your necks and said WHO THOSE PEOPLE ARE???

You're right about one thing, the 1st round is all about reliability. You want an every week starter with that first pick. Assuming people go with the RB first strategy, lets consider the reliability of 1st and 2nd round RBs in a 12 team league, standard scoring, and lineups.

LT, Priest, Alexander, Duece, Edge, Willis, Portis, DD, Rudi, KJ, JJ, Green, Westbrook, Tiki, Dillon, Lewis, Jackson, Jordan.

Of these 18 RBs only KJ and Lewis have had back to back bad games. Everyone else still remains an every week starter. Are there a couple bad games, and concerns, yes, but there always are with almost every player until the season is done. The point is that the overwhelming majority of these guys are putting up solid points.

Now consider the next 32 RBs, so we've got the entire top 50 drafted:

Dunn, Caddy, F. Taylor, and that's it. No one else in that group can be considered an every week starter, remotely unless out of necessity. Willie Parker didn't even crack the top 50, but we'll throw him in as he's clearly the only every week starter left. That gives us 4 out of 32 of the RBs after round 2 panned out. Not good.

13 out of the current top 24 RBs (in a 12 team league those would ideally be the "starting" RBs) were taken in the first two rounds. Considering how impactful one fluke game can be this early, expect that number to rise steadily throughout the season. Now let's consider when the current top 12 (starting level) QBs were taken(ADP):

McNabb - 3.09
Palmer - 7.08
Collins - 5.10
Dilfer - 17.01
Big Ben - 12.01
Bledsoe - 14.02
Hasselbeck - 6.10
Bulger - 5.01
Brady - 7.05
Favre - 6.07
Ferotte - 17.02
Leftwich - 10.03

There are two key differences here:

1) The elite tier Manning, Culpepper, McNabb. Only McNabb has performed to even starting quality for a fantasy QB. Unlike RBs, where all 3 of the consensus elite RBs (Priest, LT, and Alexander) have performed to at least starting quality.

2) In the middle rounds(5th through 7th), you could reliably (6 out of 9) get a QB who performed at a starting quality level. But for RBs taken in the middle rounds, only 2 out of 10 are at starting quality level. 66% chance of getting a good QB in those rounds, only 20% for RBs.

This rapid decline in reliability amongst RBs compared to other positions is why you take RBs first. So while you may not be able to claim specifically which RBs will be top 10 or 12, you know that you stack the odds in your favor by taking RBs in the first two rounds.
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Postby Matthias » Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:56 pm

thank you. that was the best defense of the rb-first strategy i've ever read.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:11 pm

Yep...maddog knows his stuff. ;-D Very nice breakdown.

I still would never take Manning in round 1 or Culpepper that early either...I could not conceivably see them repeating last year which would be the only way they were worth a first pick over a RB. I said at the beginning of the drafting season that McNabb in round 3 would be about the only guy worth that pick in that round of the top guys. Collins is proving a worth as a 5th rounder so far (sort of like Bulger/Green from last year), and anyone after round 7 that is doing well is obviously a great value.

We'll see what happens once everything's done! :-)
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Postby Alkaholik » Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:33 pm

Obviously we all knew he wasnt going to have the same year as last year and this will happen, I don't think very often again this year though.

Look at Culpepper owners, they are crying in their chairs. Feel bad
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Postby Boozer » Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:10 pm

My league is salary cap.
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