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Lessons learned

Postby 204BC » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:38 am

There is a valuable lesson to be learned from what we’ve seen this season, and it is this:

ALWAYS DRAFT A RUNNING BACK WITH YOUR FIRST PICK!!!

I know it is early in the season, but for those of you who took Peyton Manning with your first pick (he went #1 overall in all three leagues I’m in this year), ask yourself, was it worth it? He hasn’t been horrible, but he has not been the touchdown producing machine that he was last year, and I don’t expect that he will be for the rest of the year either. For those of you who took Culpepper with your first pick (he went #2 overall in two of the leagues and #4 overall in the other that I’m in), well……..enough said. I’m sure that they will still have some big games this year, well, Peyton will anyway, but was it really worth that top pick? In all of the leagues that I am in, the teams that took RB, RB in the first two rounds are the ones that are 2-0 and leading their leagues in scoring. I’m 5-1 combined in my three leagues and the one loss I had was to a team that picked LT and Cadillac Williams with his first two picks. I’m not writing this to rub it in the face of those of you who took QB’s early, I’m simply trying to point out the lesson to be learned here, the cardinal rule of Fantasy drafting. Always take a RB in the first round. Your odds are much better if you do.

One more reason to take a RB is that most fantasy rosters start 2 RB’s and only 1 QB. Think about it, there are 32 teams in the NFL, and not all of them have a “feature” back. The pool of RB’s is limited, especially if you have to start two of them. On the other hand, you only need to start 1 QB, and pretty much every team has a “feature” QB, although some are obviously a lot better than others, but there is a much larger pool of QB’s to pick from. You don’t need to rush and be the first one to grab a QB, but you do need to make sure that you have two good RB’s and a solid backup. If you do this, I won’t guarantee that you’ll be champion every year, but you will be a force to be reckoned with.
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Re: Lessons learned

Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:48 am

204BC wrote:There is a valuable lesson to be learned from what we’ve seen this season, and it is this:

ALWAYS DRAFT A RUNNING BACK WITH YOUR FIRST PICK!!!

I know it is early in the season, but for those of you who took Peyton Manning with your first pick (he went #1 overall in all three leagues I’m in this year), ask yourself, was it worth it? He hasn’t been horrible, but he has not been the touchdown producing machine that he was last year, and I don’t expect that he will be for the rest of the year either. For those of you who took Culpepper with your first pick (he went #2 overall in two of the leagues and #4 overall in the other that I’m in), well……..enough said. I’m sure that they will still have some big games this year, well, Peyton will anyway, but was it really worth that top pick? In all of the leagues that I am in, the teams that took RB, RB in the first two rounds are the ones that are 2-0 and leading their leagues in scoring. I’m 5-1 combined in my three leagues and the one loss I had was to a team that picked LT and Cadillac Williams with his first two picks. I’m not writing this to rub it in the face of those of you who took QB’s early, I’m simply trying to point out the lesson to be learned here, the cardinal rule of Fantasy drafting. Always take a RB in the first round. Your odds are much better if you do.

One more reason to take a RB is that most fantasy rosters start 2 RB’s and only 1 QB. Think about it, there are 32 teams in the NFL, and not all of them have a “feature” back. The pool of RB’s is limited, especially if you have to start two of them. On the other hand, you only need to start 1 QB, and pretty much every team has a “feature” QB, although some are obviously a lot better than others, but there is a much larger pool of QB’s to pick from. You don’t need to rush and be the first one to grab a QB, but you do need to make sure that you have two good RB’s and a solid backup. If you do this, I won’t guarantee that you’ll be champion every year, but you will be a force to be reckoned with.



And what say you to those folks who drafted Terrell Owens at the end of the first round over the likes of Clinton Portis, Kevin Jones, and Ahman Green?
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Postby chadlincoln » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:50 am

2 bad starts and all of a sudden all these posts of was it worth it. We're two games into the season. Be patient. The same could be said for DD, Jamal Lewis, Edge with no TD's, McGahee, Ahman Green, Portis. None are tearing it up right now.

The bottom line is that it's too early to post "I told you so."
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Postby Ricky_Christ » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:53 am

Damn thought this was going to be a thread about lessons learned going into week 3 of the season, such as:

1) The Colts D might be for real this year.
2) Dilfer...who knew?
3) Stephen Davis is still alive? Awesome!

That sort of thing. :-D
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Re: Lessons learned

Postby Redskins Win » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:02 am

204BC wrote:There is a valuable lesson to be learned from what we’ve seen this season, and it is this:

ALWAYS DRAFT A RUNNING BACK WITH YOUR FIRST PICK!!!


ummm DUH!!!
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Re: Lessons learned

Postby Sixxgunn » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:13 am

204BC wrote:There is a valuable lesson to be learned from what we’ve seen this season, and it is this:

ALWAYS DRAFT A RUNNING BACK WITH YOUR FIRST PICK!!!


Unless the best RB you can get is Kevin Jones....I definitely should have paired up Owens or Moss with Caddy instead of this Detroit piece of crap. I was waaaay too high on KJ before this season started, and now I'm paying for that. I can't trade KJ for the proverbial sack of wet hair right now.
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Re: Lessons learned

Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:16 am

Sixxgunn wrote:
204BC wrote:There is a valuable lesson to be learned from what we’ve seen this season, and it is this:

ALWAYS DRAFT A RUNNING BACK WITH YOUR FIRST PICK!!!


Unless the best RB you can get is Kevin Jones....I definitely should have paired up Owens or Moss with Caddy instead of this Detroit piece of crap. I was waaaay too high on KJ before this season started, and now I'm paying for that. I can't trade KJ for the proverbial sack of wet hair right now.



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Postby clmor » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:44 am

Thanks for the insight !! Do you care if I bookmark this?

Because, as of now, in the two money leagues I took Moss with my first pick, I'm not really struggling too much.

In the money league I took Jamal with my first pick, I'm struggling MIGHTILY -- still havn't lost but, the games have been far from blow outs.

Here is a what may be a lesson of more value:

This isn't a science -- it's value based, hypothetical projections based on statistics from multiple sources, tremendous amount of luck that you both create AND need to be created. Understanding that all the planning, projections and set in stone strategy of drafting can still result in a horrid team -- be it from performance or injury.

Based on your "valuable lesson", maybe I could have been SO lucky as to get a team of:

McGahee, Lewis, DD, Deuce -- 1st Round
KJ, JJ, Portis, Ahman -- 2nd Round
Harrison, Burleson, AJ, Wayne -- 3rd Round
Burleson, Gonzo, ROY, D. Bennett -- 4th Round

or, I could have gone:

Moss, TO -- 1st round
Moss, TO, CJ -- 2nd round
Caddy, Dunn -- 3rd Round
Taylor, LJ -- 4th round

and, KNOWING that I didn't get the STUD RB, I would have been taking as MANY RB's as possible because I am in such a strong WR position.

Being in that position -- know what that leads to? It leads to taking S. Davis late, Droughns late, Willie Parker late, etc.

Anyway, these are not very extreme examples at all -- conservative if anything. And, even though ALL of my money teams have a "stud" RB and two stud WR's, I'm in no way feeling overly confident when my # 2 RB's are a mix of Parker, Anderson, Foster, Dunn, etc -- but, I'm winning so far....

Thanks for the "value" though....
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Re: Lessons learned

Postby maddog60 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:05 am

Plindsey88 wrote:And what say you to those folks who drafted Terrell Owens at the end of the first round over the likes of Clinton Portis, Kevin Jones, and Ahman Green?


Personally, I would say they had all of those guys ranked too highly (and yes, this is according to rankings I had prior to the season). I had all of those guys listed as #2 quality RBs, so I would've never taken them in the 1st round.

Generally though, RBs in the first round is a solid drafting strategy. I think Moss is really the only non-RB that should be considered in the 1st, though I admit, if Peyton were there at the end of the 1st, I'd have been tempted to grab him.
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Postby 204BC » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:27 am

You guys are reading this the wrong way. I did not post this to say “I told you so”. I’m simply trying to drive home the point that a RB should always be taken first and that QB’s aren’t worth a first round pick. Of course you could always get lucky. Last year a lot of people got lucky with Culpepper and Manning, this year, I think a lot of people are going to get lucky with McNabb. I did not mention anything about WR’s. In retrospect, I probably should have mentioned that position in my first post. Unless you’re in a league with a lot of teams, and by a lot I mean more than 12, then I stick by my guns and say draft a RB. A WR is not a bad choice if there are no really good RB’s available. The key phrase there is “really good”. If you drafted Kevin Jones, that’s your fault.

You also have to remember my other point. There are only 32 teams in the NFL, and you have to fill your rosters with people that actually play. Only about 20 to 25 teams have a “feature” RB, and only about half of them are really good. I know this is obvious, but if you draft a RB that is third on the depth chart, you are likely not going to get any points from him. On the other hand, if you draft a WR that is number three on the depth chart, you could still end up getting 100 yards and a TD from him, maybe not every week, but some of them will get you points. There are WR’s-a-plenty in the NFL, and yes, there are some that are even worth first round consideration, but I can only think of 4 that would have considered before this season started. There will always be surprises and you can get some steals in the late rounds. Heck, I got S. Davis off waivers in one league.

I should also mention that the scoring system you use makes a big difference too. Everything I have mentioned so far I am basing on the standard Yahoo scoring system. If you are in a TD only league, then of course you would want to take an entirely different approach. In such a system, T.O. and Moss would be in my top 5.
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