Plindsey88 wrote:The way that Houston is playing, a case could be made for the fact that McCardell could finish with better stats than Dom....
100% agreed.
DD was never top-tier and you could probably dig up threads here where people predicted Dom would bust. The last time Keenan was a #1 WR ('03 TB), he put up over 1100 yards and 8 TDs.
Everyone has their own predictions, so let them make their own decisions. If you don't think an owner is up to par, find a new league - don't run his team for him.
"I'm normally not a praying man, but if you're up there, please save me Superman."
- Homer J. Simpson
The guy who owns davis is just very upset, and he is making a rash decision. You may want to advise him against it, but its not an extreme enough trade to warrant a veto.
Something like Nate Burleson for Shaun Alexander would be an instant veto, or Marty Booker for LT.
per fantasyfootball.com,
dominick davis = 8th highest player by ADP
shaun alexander = 2nd highest player by ADP
keenan mccardell = 152nd highest player by ADP
nate burleson = 37th highest player by ADP
now, you can quibble with your own ADPs (these are just the first comprehensive ones i found) or that nate is limping a bit and culpepper is looking a little confused, but the trade which you are saying is ok is a difference of 144 ADP and the one which you're saying would be an "instant veto" is a difference of 35 ADP. two weeks do not shift the values that drastically unless you're talking serious injury (javon) or serious positional promotion (fast willie). neither of these are the case here. burleson is questionable for next week, but should be playing very soon, in any case. keenan had a nice week when gates was out, but no real reason to move his ADP, certainly not by over 100 slots.
so, in short, i just don't understand your analysis.
Matthias wrote:two weeks do not shift the values that drastically unless you're talking serious injury (javon) or serious positional promotion (fast willie).
BALOGNA!
First of all, ADPs aren't proven indicators of a players' worth.
Second, Now that the season started, ADPs are pretty much worthless. You're living in the past!
Willie Parker, Carnell Williams, Daunte Culpepper, Nate Burleson, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Javon Walker, Carson Palmer....their ADPs (along with dozens upon dozens of other players) are meaningless. They are either producing or failing.
Matthias wrote:two weeks do not shift the values that drastically unless you're talking serious injury (javon) or serious positional promotion (fast willie).
BALOGNA!
First of all, ADPs aren't proven indicators of a players' worth.
Second, Now that the season started, ADPs are pretty much worthless. You're living in the past!
Willie Parker, Carnell Williams, Daunte Culpepper, Nate Burleson, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Javon Walker, Carson Palmer....their ADPs (along with dozens upon dozens of other players) are meaningless. They are either producing or failing.
ADPs aren't proven indicators of a players' worth, but they are what the collective community has decreed to be the FUTURE worth of players before draft day. if i'm trading for keenan mccardell, do i care that he had 24 points in week 1? only if i think he'll repeat it in week 3. otherwise, that's very nice. but it does nothing for me.
stellar performances (or very subpar ones) can cause an adjustment to how we think about a player's ADP. however, the season is still early and, in a redraft league that drafted TODAY, most ADP values would be similar to pre-season rankings, unless, as I mentioned in my previous post, there was a major injury (javon) or major positional shift (willie). players just having two good or two bad weeks won't completely move the draft board. do you really think that in a league that drafted today palmer would be drafted before culpepper? honestly, i'd be very surprised. what you're talking about is looking at the most recent two games versus the most recent 20-80 games, depending on the length of the player's career.
talking about someone performing well right now is also living in the past. it's just the more recent one. when looking at a trade, you look at the future expectations. and for that, you want a large sample size, i.e. a player's career, modified for new information. so do you look purely at ADPs when looking at a trade today? of course not. but it's a very reasonable place to begin.
particularly where the only news related to the player is that they had a good week or bad week, making the shift in value more likely to be attributed to normal deviation from the norm rather than an enduring condition which should drastically change your perception of their future performance. and in the players mentioned in this thread: dominic davis, shaun alexander, nate burleson, and keenan mccardell, the only player that has an enduring conditional change is burleson who looks to miss this week, but news seems to be he'll be back after that. so is that enough of changed information to move his ADP down over 100 slots? i'd be very surprised.
so again, ADPs isn't where i would end my trade analysis. but it's a completely legitimate place to start.
Matthias wrote:do you really think that in a league that drafted today palmer would be drafted before culpepper? honestly, i'd be very surprised.
Not so fast my friend , I wouldn't be surprised if I were in a draft today and Palmer went before Culpepper. It could all turn around, but right now MIN is a mess and CIN is hitting on all cylinders. If someone offered me Palmer for my C-Pepp, I would think about it...
It is early in the season, but if a player's stock is falling it is sometimes a good idea to get what you can before the bottom falls out. I'm not predicting DD will fall on his face, but who knows.
"I'm normally not a praying man, but if you're up there, please save me Superman."
- Homer J. Simpson
The important thing, when judging the merits of trades, is to have set in place a method of approving or vetoing trades. This method should be set in place, and everyone made aware of it, before the draft.
In my leagues, it takes a majority vote from the non-interested parties to over-rule a trade. This means that pretty much anything goes. LIke Dom Davis for McCardell wouldn't get enough people off their asses to enact a veto. But LaDanian for Doug Gabriel would, I think.
Unless the guy getting McCardell is already totally stacked at WR and obviously doesn't need him, I would say this is fine. Yeah it looks unfair to most of us, but looking at both players' performance thus far, it's not that much of a stretch. You can't penalize a shrewd owner for finding a desparate guy in need of a startable WR...
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by BeefSandwiches » Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:45 pm 
, I wouldn't be surprised if I were in a draft today and Palmer went before Culpepper. It could all turn around, but right now MIN is a mess and CIN is hitting on all cylinders. If someone offered me Palmer for my C-Pepp, I would think about it...
