Worst Trade of the year.... ruins league? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Worst Trade of the year.... ruins league?

Moderator: Football Moderators

Postby BeefSandwiches » Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:45 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:The way that Houston is playing, a case could be made for the fact that McCardell could finish with better stats than Dom....


100% agreed.

DD was never top-tier and you could probably dig up threads here where people predicted Dom would bust. The last time Keenan was a #1 WR ('03 TB), he put up over 1100 yards and 8 TDs.

Everyone has their own predictions, so let them make their own decisions. If you don't think an owner is up to par, find a new league - don't run his team for him.
"I'm normally not a praying man, but if you're up there, please save me Superman."
- Homer J. Simpson
BeefSandwiches
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1475
Joined: 18 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby jdogg_ffc » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:30 pm

Need to show both teams rosters for best advise!


DD 2+14=26
McCardell 24+5=29

So far pretty even on fantasy pts. in my league.

Now last yr. I was pretty well set on RBs but hurting at WR and I traded Westbrook for Bruce. Didn't work out real well for me.

But I was not cheating! I was trying to improve my team.

Show us the rosters PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!
First the Shock, then the Pistons can the Lions be next?

Well maybe next yr.

PS I didn't lose a paper bag challenge but somehow as a Lion's fan it just feels right.
jdogg_ffc
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1090
Joined: 9 Oct 2002
Home Cafe: Football
Location: G.R. Mi.

Postby lmcjaho » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:24 am

jdogg_ffc wrote:Need to show both teams rosters for best advise!

DD 2+14=26
McCardell 24+5=29


So far pretty even on fantasy pts. in my league.


jdogg- with math skills like that it doesn't really surprise me that you got burned last year - for most of us 2+14 = 16 and not 26 :-b
Image
Sig courtesy of Soty - muchos gracias amigo!
lmcjaho
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerEagle Eye
Posts: 3441
Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Montreal

Postby sleepers3 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:36 am

WHAT ARE YOU GUYS CRAZY?ITS A HORRIBLE TRADE THAT MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL.HE COULD GET SOMEONE WAY BETTER THEN THAT D.DAVIS.THATS A HORRIBLE TRADE.
Dominick Davis 1500 yards you watch!!!!
sleepers3
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar

Posts: 221
Joined: 15 Sep 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: MD

Postby Matthias » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:20 am

Blitzburgh2001 wrote:It could be a lot worse.

The guy who owns davis is just very upset, and he is making a rash decision. You may want to advise him against it, but its not an extreme enough trade to warrant a veto.

Something like Nate Burleson for Shaun Alexander would be an instant veto, or Marty Booker for LT.


per fantasyfootball.com,

dominick davis = 8th highest player by ADP
shaun alexander = 2nd highest player by ADP

keenan mccardell = 152nd highest player by ADP
nate burleson = 37th highest player by ADP

now, you can quibble with your own ADPs (these are just the first comprehensive ones i found) or that nate is limping a bit and culpepper is looking a little confused, but the trade which you are saying is ok is a difference of 144 ADP and the one which you're saying would be an "instant veto" is a difference of 35 ADP. two weeks do not shift the values that drastically unless you're talking serious injury (javon) or serious positional promotion (fast willie). neither of these are the case here. burleson is questionable for next week, but should be playing very soon, in any case. keenan had a nice week when gates was out, but no real reason to move his ADP, certainly not by over 100 slots.

so, in short, i just don't understand your analysis.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2398
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby BrutallyHuge » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:38 am

Matthias wrote:two weeks do not shift the values that drastically unless you're talking serious injury (javon) or serious positional promotion (fast willie).


BALOGNA!

First of all, ADPs aren't proven indicators of a players' worth.

Second, Now that the season started, ADPs are pretty much worthless. You're living in the past!

Willie Parker, Carnell Williams, Daunte Culpepper, Nate Burleson, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Javon Walker, Carson Palmer....their ADPs (along with dozens upon dozens of other players) are meaningless. They are either producing or failing.
BrutallyHuge
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerEagle EyeCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5971
Joined: 21 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Illadelph

Postby Matthias » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:54 am

BrutallyHuge wrote:
Matthias wrote:two weeks do not shift the values that drastically unless you're talking serious injury (javon) or serious positional promotion (fast willie).


BALOGNA!

First of all, ADPs aren't proven indicators of a players' worth.

Second, Now that the season started, ADPs are pretty much worthless. You're living in the past!

Willie Parker, Carnell Williams, Daunte Culpepper, Nate Burleson, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Javon Walker, Carson Palmer....their ADPs (along with dozens upon dozens of other players) are meaningless. They are either producing or failing.


ADPs aren't proven indicators of a players' worth, but they are what the collective community has decreed to be the FUTURE worth of players before draft day. if i'm trading for keenan mccardell, do i care that he had 24 points in week 1? only if i think he'll repeat it in week 3. otherwise, that's very nice. but it does nothing for me.

stellar performances (or very subpar ones) can cause an adjustment to how we think about a player's ADP. however, the season is still early and, in a redraft league that drafted TODAY, most ADP values would be similar to pre-season rankings, unless, as I mentioned in my previous post, there was a major injury (javon) or major positional shift (willie). players just having two good or two bad weeks won't completely move the draft board. do you really think that in a league that drafted today palmer would be drafted before culpepper? honestly, i'd be very surprised. what you're talking about is looking at the most recent two games versus the most recent 20-80 games, depending on the length of the player's career.

talking about someone performing well right now is also living in the past. it's just the more recent one. when looking at a trade, you look at the future expectations. and for that, you want a large sample size, i.e. a player's career, modified for new information. so do you look purely at ADPs when looking at a trade today? of course not. but it's a very reasonable place to begin.

particularly where the only news related to the player is that they had a good week or bad week, making the shift in value more likely to be attributed to normal deviation from the norm rather than an enduring condition which should drastically change your perception of their future performance. and in the players mentioned in this thread: dominic davis, shaun alexander, nate burleson, and keenan mccardell, the only player that has an enduring conditional change is burleson who looks to miss this week, but news seems to be he'll be back after that. so is that enough of changed information to move his ADP down over 100 slots? i'd be very surprised.

so again, ADPs isn't where i would end my trade analysis. but it's a completely legitimate place to start.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2398
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby BeefSandwiches » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:07 am

Matthias wrote:do you really think that in a league that drafted today palmer would be drafted before culpepper? honestly, i'd be very surprised.


Not so fast my friend :-D , I wouldn't be surprised if I were in a draft today and Palmer went before Culpepper. It could all turn around, but right now MIN is a mess and CIN is hitting on all cylinders. If someone offered me Palmer for my C-Pepp, I would think about it...

It is early in the season, but if a player's stock is falling it is sometimes a good idea to get what you can before the bottom falls out. I'm not predicting DD will fall on his face, but who knows.
"I'm normally not a praying man, but if you're up there, please save me Superman."
- Homer J. Simpson
BeefSandwiches
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1475
Joined: 18 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Wesley Walker » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:47 am

The important thing, when judging the merits of trades, is to have set in place a method of approving or vetoing trades. This method should be set in place, and everyone made aware of it, before the draft.

In my leagues, it takes a majority vote from the non-interested parties to over-rule a trade. This means that pretty much anything goes. LIke Dom Davis for McCardell wouldn't get enough people off their asses to enact a veto. But LaDanian for Doug Gabriel would, I think.
Wesley Walker
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 1687
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 11 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Seattle

Postby Heimholder » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:50 am

Unless the guy getting McCardell is already totally stacked at WR and obviously doesn't need him, I would say this is fine. Yeah it looks unfair to most of us, but looking at both players' performance thus far, it's not that much of a stretch. You can't penalize a shrewd owner for finding a desparate guy in need of a startable WR...

- Coach Hog
Heimholder
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar

Posts: 428
Joined: 2 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Kalamazoo

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 1:28 hours
(and 36 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact